Most likely wins today
The market's strongest favourites: every home or away win that Pinnacle's price, without the margin, puts at 65% or more, in all the competitions we cover. Sorted by chance.
Yesterday: 38 of 50 won (chance shown: 74% on average). Full record →
This is the market's price, not a tip of ours: none of our models picks winners better than it. A high chance is not a profit: bookmakers usually pay less than the fair odds on favourites, and every match added to a slip lowers its chance.
| Kick-off | Match | Win | Chance | Fair odds | Best price | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Al-Hilal Saudi FC
 Al-Hazm
Saudi Pro League · price
|
Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win (1) | 94% | 1.06 | 1.05 Unibet (NL) | ||
 Rīgas FS
 Tukums
Latvia Virsliga · price
|
Rīgas FS to win (1) | 92% | 1.09 | 1.09 Bet365 | ||
 Omonia Nicosia
 Olympiakos
Cyprus 1. Division · price
|
Omonia Nicosia to win (1) | 78% | 1.28 | — | ||
 Al-Fayha
 Al-Ahli Jeddah
Saudi Pro League · price
|
Al-Ahli Jeddah to win (2) | 71% | 1.41 | 1.35 Unibet (NL) | ||
 Tatran Prešov
 Žilina II
Slovakia 2. Liga · price
|
Tatran Prešov to win (1) | 70% | 1.43 | 1.40 Bet365 | ||
 Bursaspor
 Pendikspor
Turkey 1. Lig · price
|
Bursaspor to win (1) | 70% | 1.43 | — |
Already started today
| Kick-off | Match | Win | Chance | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Kharkiv Livyi Bereh Ukraine Premier League | FC Kharkiv | 65% | Awaiting result |
Football predictions, answered honestly
How do you choose the most likely wins?
We don't choose them. We take Pinnacle's current 1X2 price, remove the margin and list every home or away win the market puts at 65% or more, in all the competitions we cover. The draw is never on the list.
How often do they win?
About as often as the chance shown. In our backtest on 6,770 matches, favourites shown at 74% on average won 75% of the time. Every match on the list is recorded before kick-off, and the public record compares the chance shown with the result.
Are these favourites profitable?
Not by themselves: the chance is already in the price. In our backtest, betting on every one at Pinnacle's closing odds returned -0.6 per 100 staked (95% interval -4.4 to +3.1), and most bookmakers pay less than Pinnacle on favourites.
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- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included