A worked example
At decimal odds of 1.85, the break-even win rate is 1 / 1.85 = 54.05%. At 2.50 it is 40%. A 67% win rate at odds of 1.40 still gives an expected return of 0.67 × 1.40 − 1 = −6.2% per unit staked, under fixed-odds and equal-stake assumptions.
How the calculation works
Decimal odds include the returned stake. If a win earns odds minus 1 and a loss costs 1, expected profit is p × odds − 1. Setting that to zero gives p = 1 / odds. The displayed percentage is rounded to one decimal place.
What this result does not tell you
This simple calculation assumes a fixed price, equal stakes, win-or-loss settlement and no fees. For a real history with different odds or stakes, evaluate each bet’s profit and total stakes: an average price and win rate can conceal important differences. A win rate from a small sample is uncertain and does not prove skill.
Common questions
Are the displayed odds decimal?
Yes. Enter decimal odds greater than 1. For example, 2.00 means a total return of 2 for a winning stake of 1.
Does clearing the threshold guarantee future profit?
No. Your observed win rate can change, and a short record may reflect chance. Fees can also raise the required rate.
What about void bets and commission?
They are outside this simple formula. Exclude returned-stake voids from a win/loss comparison and calculate net returns explicitly when costs apply.
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