Pre-registered experiment · paper, no money
Do our value flags beat the closing line at the bookmaker's own price?
AutoBet tests our signals at Betfair Exchange prices, where the edge does not survive. This experiment tests them where it is supposed to be: at the soft bookmaker that showed the price. It is a measurement on paper: soft bookmakers cannot be bet automatically, and nothing is staked.
Decision under the pre-registered rule (first 300 takeable settled flags, reached on 17 Oct 2026, 08:25 UTC): average closing line value at the bookmaker's price +0.57% (95% interval -0.50% to +1.64%).
Result: inconclusive; the 95% interval includes zero.
Sensitivity check: the flags as they stood when 300 was first reached (17 Oct 2026, 01:25 UTC), including 8 flags voided later because their benchmark was an exchange, not Pinnacle: CLV +0.49% (95% interval -0.55% to +1.53%), inconclusive.
After the decision point (descriptive, not part of the test): 579 more takeable flags settled, average CLV at the bookmaker's price +1.23% (95% interval +0.44% to +2.02%).
All flags to date (descriptive)
These figures include every flag so far. The decision uses only the first 300 takeable flags, as the frozen rules say; the flags after that point describe the test, they do not change the decision.
| Flags in the test | 1223 |
| Taken, waiting for the result | 225 |
| Settled | 982 |
| Taken and settled, all to date | 879 (the decision uses the first 300) |
| Coverage | 90% |
| CLV at the bookmaker's price | +1.00% [+0.37, +1.64] |
| CLV at the flag's price | +1.71% (n=982) |
| Flat-stake return | -1.3% |
Latest flags
| Match | Pick | Bookmaker | Flag price | Re-observed | Fair close | CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cremonese – Benevento (X) · Serie BCoolbet | X | Coolbet | 3.40 | 3.40 | — | — | pending |
| Sampdoria – Virtus Entella (X) · Serie BCoolbet | X | Coolbet | 3.30 | 3.30 | — | — | pending |
| 1. FC Köln – Union Berlin (1) · DFB PokalUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 1.81 | 1.79 | — | — | pending |
| Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen (1) · DFB Pokal1xBet | 1 | 1xBet | 1.38 | 1.36 | — | — | pending |
| Juan Pablo II College – Sport Huancayo (2) · Peru Liga 1SBO | 2 | SBO | 2.23 | not re-observed | — | — | pending |
| Bayer Leverkusen – 1. FC Nürnberg (1) · DFB PokalTipico | 1 | Tipico | 1.17 | 1.17 | — | — | pending |
| Bayern München – 1. FC Magdeburg (1) · DFB Pokal1xBet | 1 | 1xBet | 1.05 | 1.05 | — | — | pending |
| Abha – Al-Ittihad FC (2) · Saudi Pro League1xBet | 2 | 1xBet | 1.76 | 1.76 | — | — | pending |
| Gornik Zabrze – Legia Warszawa (1) · EkstraklasaUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 2.16 | 2.16 | — | — | pending |
| Brann – Molde (2) · Eliteserien1xBet | 2 | 1xBet | 2.21 | 2.21 | — | — | pending |
| FC Lugano – FC Basel 1893 (1) · Swiss Super LeagueUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 1.68 | 1.68 | — | — | pending |
| Feyenoord – Inter (2) · UEFA Champions League1xBet | 2 | 1xBet | 1.75 | 1.75 | — | — | pending |
| Mansfield Town – Notts County (1) · League OneUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 1.85 | 1.85 | — | — | pending |
| Al-Fayha – Al-Faisaly FC (2) · Saudi Pro LeagueUnibet (NL) | 2 | Unibet (NL) | 2.85 | 2.85 | — | — | pending |
| IF Brommapojkarna – BK Hacken (2) · AllsvenskanGTbets | 2 | GTbets | 1.78 | 1.78 | — | — | pending |
| Lecce – Genoa (1) · Serie AUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 2.88 | 2.88 | — | — | pending |
| Luton – Doncaster (1) · League OneUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 1.50 | 1.50 | — | — | pending |
| Deportivo Riestra – Talleres Cordoba (1) · Argentina Liga ProfesionalUnibet (SE) | 1 | Unibet (SE) | 2.20 | 2.20 | — | — | pending |
| Mito Hollyhock – Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2) · J1 LeagueCoolbet | 2 | Coolbet | 1.48 | 1.48 | — | — | pending |
| Jeonbuk Motors – Daejeon Citizen (2) · K League 1LeoVegas (SE) | 2 | LeoVegas (SE) | 2.85 | 2.70 | — | — | pending |
| Annecy – Montpellier (1) · Ligue 2Unibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 3.25 | 3.25 | — | — | pending |
| Levante – Atletico Madrid (2) · La LigaUnibet (SE) | 2 | Unibet (SE) | 1.67 | 1.67 | — | — | pending |
| FC Anyang – Bucheon FC 1995 (1) · K League 1LeoVegas (SE) | 1 | LeoVegas (SE) | 2.02 | 2.02 | — | — | pending |
| Raków Częstochowa – Pogon Szczecin (2) · EkstraklasaUnibet (NL) | 2 | Unibet (NL) | 3.05 | 3.05 | — | — | pending |
| Galatasaray – VfB Stuttgart (2) · UEFA Champions League1xBet | 2 | 1xBet | 2.93 | 2.93 | — | — | pending |
| Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP (2) · UEFA Champions LeagueCodere (IT) | 2 | Codere (IT) | 2.00 | 2.00 | — | — | pending |
| Manchester United – AS Roma (2) · UEFA Champions League1xBet | 2 | 1xBet | 2.94 | 2.94 | — | — | pending |
| Bodo/Glimt – Lille (1) · UEFA Champions LeagueCodere (IT) | 1 | Codere (IT) | 1.94 | 1.94 | — | — | pending |
| Lask Linz – Slovan Bratislava (1) · UEFA Champions LeagueGTbets | 1 | GTbets | 1.52 | 1.52 | — | — | pending |
| Barcelona – Aston Villa (1) · UEFA Champions LeagueGTbets | 1 | GTbets | 1.29 | 1.29 | — | — | pending |
| Juve Stabia – Hellas Verona (1) · Serie BCodere (IT) | 1 | Codere (IT) | 3.00 | 2.90 | — | — | pending |
| Atletico-MG – Cruzeiro (2) · Brazil Serie AGTbets | 2 | GTbets | 2.83 | 2.83 | — | — | pending |
| Botafogo SP – Sport Recife (2) · Brazil Serie BUnibet (NL) | 2 | Unibet (NL) | 2.88 | 2.88 | — | — | pending |
| Burgos – Castellón (2) · Segunda DivisionCoolbet | 2 | Coolbet | 2.20 | 2.20 | — | — | pending |
| Virtus Entella – Avellino (X) · Serie BCoolbet | X | Coolbet | 3.40 | 3.40 | — | — | pending |
| FBC Melgar – Comerciantes Unidos (1) · Peru Liga 1William Hill | 1 | William Hill | 1.29 | not re-observed | — | — | pending |
| Academico Viseu – Rio Ave (1) · Primeira LigaGTbets | 1 | GTbets | 2.06 | 2.06 | — | — | pending |
| IFK Goteborg – Djurgardens IF (2) · AllsvenskanGTbets | 2 | GTbets | 2.06 | 2.06 | — | — | pending |
| Gremio – Atletico Paranaense (2) · Brazil Serie AUnibet (NL) | 2 | Unibet (NL) | 2.80 | 2.75 | — | — | pending |
| Manchester City – Brighton (1) · EFL CupUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 1.67 | 1.67 | — | — | pending |
| Vasco DA Gama – Flamengo (2) · Brazil Serie AUnibet (NL) | 2 | Unibet (NL) | 2.04 | 2.04 | — | — | pending |
| Cuiaba – São Bernardo (1) · Brazil Serie BCoolbet | 1 | Coolbet | 1.78 | 1.78 | — | — | pending |
| New England Revolution – New York Red Bulls (1) · MLSLeoVegas (SE) | 1 | LeoVegas (SE) | 2.00 | 2.00 | — | — | pending |
| Laval – Boulogne (2) · Ligue 2Unibet (NL) | 2 | Unibet (NL) | 3.00 | 3.00 | — | — | pending |
| Tenerife – FC Andorra (1) · Segunda DivisionUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 2.43 | 2.43 | — | — | pending |
| Newells Old Boys – Union Santa Fe (1) · Argentina Liga ProfesionalNordic Bet | 1 | Nordic Bet | 2.12 | 2.12 | — | — | pending |
| Bradford – Huddersfield (2) · League OneUnibet (NL) | 2 | Unibet (NL) | 2.75 | 2.75 | — | — | pending |
| Milton Keynes Dons – Bromley (1) · League OneUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 1.70 | 1.70 | — | — | pending |
| Kocaelispor – Rizespor (1) · Süper Lig1xBet | 1 | 1xBet | 2.76 | 2.76 | — | — | pending |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. – Alanyaspor (2) · Süper LigUnibet (NL) | 2 | Unibet (NL) | 2.88 | 2.95 | — | — | pending |
| Norwich – Watford (1) · ChampionshipBetOnline.ag | 1 | BetOnline.ag | 1.62 | 1.62 | — | — | pending |
| Havelse – FC Ingolstadt 04 (2) · 3. LigaUnibet (NL) | 2 | Unibet (NL) | 1.89 | 1.89 | — | — | pending |
| Fortuna Köln – Würzburger Kickers (1) · 3. LigaUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 2.17 | 2.17 | — | — | pending |
| Kasımpaşa – Beşiktaş (2) · Süper LigGTbets | 2 | GTbets | 1.79 | 1.79 | — | — | pending |
| FC Copenhagen – Odense (1) · Danish SuperligaGTbets | 1 | GTbets | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.45 | -1.0% | lost |
| Shrewsbury – Gillingham (1) · League TwoUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 2.20 | 2.20 | — | — | pending |
| Accrington ST – Northampton (1) · League TwoUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 2.40 | 2.23 | — | — | pending |
| Oviedo – Las Palmas (1) · Segunda DivisionUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 2.00 | 1.88 | — | — | pending |
| Valladolid – Leganes (1) · Segunda Division1xBet | 1 | 1xBet | 1.94 | 1.94 | — | — | pending |
| AD Ceuta FC – Sporting Gijon (1) · Segunda DivisionNordic Bet | 1 | Nordic Bet | 2.85 | 2.85 | — | — | pending |
| Santa Clara – Benfica (2) · Primeira LigaGTbets | 2 | GTbets | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.37 | -2.9% | won |
| Casa Pia – Sporting CP (2) · Primeira LigaMarathonbet | 2 | Marathonbet | 1.26 | 1.26 | — | — | pending |
| Inter Turku – HJK Helsinki (1) · VeikkausliigaCoolbet | 1 | Coolbet | 2.45 | 2.45 | — | — | pending |
| FC Juarez – Club Queretaro (2) · Liga MXBetOnline.ag | 2 | BetOnline.ag | 2.43 | 2.43 | — | — | pending |
| Fagiano Okayama – FC Tokyo (2) · J1 LeagueLeoVegas (SE) | 2 | LeoVegas (SE) | 2.17 | 2.17 | — | — | pending |
| Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund (1) · Bundesliga1xBet | 1 | 1xBet | 1.40 | 1.40 | — | — | pending |
| Heerenveen – NEC Nijmegen (2) · EredivisieUnibet (NL) | 2 | Unibet (NL) | 3.45 | 3.45 | — | — | pending |
| SK Beveren – Union St. Gilloise (2) · Jupiler Pro LeagueUnibet (SE) | 2 | Unibet (SE) | 1.55 | 1.55 | — | — | pending |
| SC Braga – Famalicao (1) · Primeira LigaGTbets | 1 | GTbets | 1.72 | 1.72 | — | — | pending |
| Atromitos – Volos NFC (1) · Greek Super LeagueBetsson | 1 | Betsson | 1.88 | 1.88 | — | — | pending |
| Newcastle – Everton (2) · Premier League1xBet | 2 | 1xBet | 3.23 | 3.23 | — | — | pending |
| Padova – Sudtirol (2) · Serie BUnibet (NL) | 2 | Unibet (NL) | 3.20 | 3.20 | — | — | pending |
| Platense – Central Cordoba de Santiago (1) · Argentina Liga ProfesionalUnibet (SE) | 1 | Unibet (SE) | 1.83 | 1.83 | — | — | pending |
| Deportivo La Coruna – Osasuna (1) · La Liga1xBet | 1 | 1xBet | 2.28 | not re-observed | — | — | pending |
| Udinese – AS Roma (2) · Serie A1xBet | 2 | 1xBet | 1.63 | 1.63 | — | — | pending |
| Velez Sarsfield – San Lorenzo (1) · Argentina Liga Profesional1xBet | 1 | 1xBet | 2.07 | 1.99 | — | — | pending |
| Sassuolo – Fiorentina (2) · Serie A1xBet | 2 | 1xBet | 2.83 | 2.83 | — | — | pending |
| Atalanta – Parma (1) · Serie A1xBet | 1 | 1xBet | 1.50 | 1.50 | — | — | pending |
| Boulogne – Reims (X) · Ligue 2Coolbet | X | Coolbet | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.39 | -2.7% | won |
| Toronto FC – DC United (1) · MLSBetOnline.ag | 1 | BetOnline.ag | 2.03 | 2.03 | — | — | pending |
| New York City FC – Atlanta United FC (1) · MLSGTbets | 1 | GTbets | 1.89 | 1.89 | — | — | pending |
| Inter Miami – FC Cincinnati (1) · MLS1xBet | 1 | 1xBet | 1.61 | 1.61 | — | — | pending |
| Bournemouth – Leeds (1) · Premier League1xBet | 1 | 1xBet | 2.24 | 2.24 | — | — | pending |
| Estac Troyes – Le Mans (2) · Ligue 1LeoVegas (SE) | 2 | LeoVegas (SE) | 3.50 | 3.50 | — | — | pending |
| CF Pachuca – Tigres UANL (1) · Liga MXUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 2.40 | 2.40 | — | — | pending |
| Cruz Azul – Leon (1) · Liga MXUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 1.74 | 1.74 | — | — | pending |
| AC Milan – Bologna (1) · Serie A1xBet | 1 | 1xBet | 1.69 | 1.69 | — | — | pending |
| Colo Colo – Universidad de Concepcion (1) · Primera Division ChileLeoVegas (SE) | 1 | LeoVegas (SE) | 1.36 | 1.32 | — | — | pending |
| Atletico San Luis – Atlas (2) · Liga MXUnibet (NL) | 2 | Unibet (NL) | 2.95 | 2.95 | — | — | pending |
| Lorient – Stade Brestois 29 (1) · Ligue 11xBet | 1 | 1xBet | 2.73 | 2.73 | — | — | pending |
| ST Johnstone – Motherwell (2) · Scottish PremiershipUnibet (NL) | 2 | Unibet (NL) | 2.88 | 2.80 | — | — | pending |
| Hoffenheim II – FC Viktoria Köln (1) · 3. LigaTipico | 1 | Tipico | 2.80 | 2.80 | — | — | pending |
| Ajax – AZ Alkmaar (1) · EredivisieUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 1.97 | 1.97 | — | — | pending |
| Cercle Brugge – Antwerp (1) · Jupiler Pro LeagueUnibet (SE) | 1 | Unibet (SE) | 2.02 | 2.02 | — | — | pending |
| Telstar – Utrecht (2) · EredivisieUnibet (NL) | 2 | Unibet (NL) | 2.48 | 2.48 | — | — | pending |
| Levadiakos – Aris Thessalonikis (2) · Greek Super LeagueUnibet (NL) | 2 | Unibet (NL) | 2.10 | 2.10 | — | — | pending |
| Panetolikos – OFI (X) · Greek Super LeagueUnibet (NL) | X | Unibet (NL) | 3.15 | 3.15 | — | — | pending |
| PAOK – Asteras Tripolis (1) · Greek Super LeagueUnibet (NL) | 1 | Unibet (NL) | 1.34 | 1.34 | — | — | pending |
| Lazio – Cagliari (1) · Serie A1xBet | 1 | 1xBet | 1.66 | 1.66 | — | — | pending |
| Boca Juniors – River Plate (X) · Argentina Liga ProfesionalUnibet (SE) | X | Unibet (SE) | 3.25 | 3.20 | — | — | pending |
Show the latest 100 flags
By flag strength and bookmaker
| Edge of at least 3% | n=249 | +1.54% |
| Edge below 3% | n=630 | +0.79% |
| Unibet (NL) | n=284 | +1.48% |
| 1xBet | n=155 | +0.72% |
| LeoVegas (SE) | n=105 | +2.10% |
| Coolbet | n=100 | -0.29% |
| GTbets | n=59 | +3.39% |
| Unibet (SE) | n=48 | +1.19% |
| BetOnline.ag | n=32 | -1.31% |
| Codere (IT) | n=23 | -0.20% |
The frozen rules
- Population: every value flag (rule flag-v2) recorded live from 5 Oct 2026, 07:20 UTC, excluding World Cup and Nations League matches.
- Entry price: the first price of the same bookmaker on the same selection that we observe within 60 minutes after the flag and before kick-off, last updated by the bookmaker at most 90 minutes earlier. Flags without such a price are not takeable: they count in coverage, not in returns.
- To raise coverage, about 30 minutes after each flag we re-read that match's prices once.
- Stake: 1 unit, flat. Result: the official 1X2 result; voids are excluded.
- Primary measure: average closing line value of the entry price against the devigged Pinnacle close, with a 95% interval.
- Decision at 300 takeable settled flags or 31 December 2026: works if the interval is above zero, fails if it is below, otherwise inconclusive. No early stop.
Frozen specification (SHA-256 7a5b74695fe5fdb0…) → · OpenTimestamps proof (.ots)
AutoBet at Betfair prices → · Methodology → · Corrections log →