Market audit — upcoming matches

every upcoming match audited against the sharp market — where there is value, and honestly where there is not

34 actionable · 17 monitor · 33 expired · 79 no value

★ TOP OPPORTUNITY
Peru Liga 1
Alianza Atletico — Cienciano
Model probability
1
36%
X
29%
2
35%
1/2 Home or away 71%
Strong value X Draw +11.1%
Fair price 3.15
Bet365 3.50
Live price ·
Primeira Liga
Estoril — Famalicao
Market probability (margin removed)
1
27%
X
31%
2
42%
X/2 Draw or away 73%
Strong value X Draw +9.7%
Fair price 3.19
Coolbet 3.50
Live price ·
3. Liga
FC Saarbrücken — Rot-Weiß Essen
Market probability (margin removed)
1
42%
X
24%
2
34%
1/2 Home or away 76%
Strong value 2 Rot-Weiß Essen +7.8%
Fair price 2.50
Tipico 2.70
Live price ·
Brazil Serie B
Nautico Recife — Atletico Goianiense
Market probability (margin removed)
1
44%
X
28%
2
28%
1/2 Home or away 72%
Strong value 2 Atletico Goianiense +7.8%
Fair price 3.15
Unibet (SE) 3.40
Live price ·
Bulgaria Second League
Pirin Blagoevgrad — CSKA Sofia II
Model probability
1
27%
X
28%
2
46%
X/2 Draw or away 73%
Strong value 2 CSKA Sofia II +7.5%
Fair price 2.37
10Bet 2.55
Live price ·
Uruguay Primera Division
Defensor Sporting — Cerro
Market probability (margin removed)
1
57%
X
25%
2
17%
1 Home win 57%
Strong value 1 Defensor Sporting +7.2%
Fair price 1.74
Dafabet 1.86
Live price ·
Brazil Serie A
Botafogo — Fluminense
Market probability (margin removed)
1
36%
X
31%
2
33%
1/2 Home or away 69%
Strong value X Draw +6.4%
Fair price 3.20
Coolbet 3.40
Edge shrinking ·
Jupiler Pro League
Gent — KV Mechelen
Market probability (margin removed)
1
50%
X
25%
2
25%
1/X Home or draw 75%
Strong value 1 Gent +5.1%
Fair price 2.00
Unibet (NL) 2.10
Live price ·
Eliteserien
Kristiansund BK — Molde
Market probability (margin removed)
1
19%
X
25%
2
56%
2 Away win 56%
Strong value 2 Molde +4.3%
Fair price 1.79
Unibet (NL) 1.87
Live price ·
Eredivisie
GO Ahead Eagles — Willem II
Market probability (margin removed)
1
60%
X
21%
2
18%
1 Home win 60%
Strong value 1 GO Ahead Eagles +4.2%
Fair price 1.66
Unibet (NL) 1.73
Edge shrinking ·
Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar — ADO Den Haag
Market probability (margin removed)
1
67%
X
19%
2
14%
1 Home win 67%
Strong value 1 AZ Alkmaar +3.9%
Fair price 1.49
Betfair 1.55
Edge shrinking ·
Primera A
Internacional de Bogota — Jaguares
Market probability (margin removed)
1
60%
X
25%
2
15%
1 Home win 60%
Strong value 1 Internacional de Bogota +3.8%
Fair price 1.66
Unibet 1.72
Live price ·
Paraguay Division Intermedia
Paraguari AC — Deportivo Capiata
Model probability
1
31%
X
27%
2
42%
1/2 Home or away 73%
Strong value X Draw +3.5%
Fair price 3.09
Dafabet 3.20
Live price ·
Premier Division
Shelbourne — St Patrick's Athl.
Model probability
1
41%
X
26%
2
33%
1/2 Home or away 74%
Strong value 2 St Patrick's Athl. +3.3%
Fair price 2.27
Tipico 2.35
Live price ·
Jupiler Pro League
St. Truiden — Lommel United
Market probability (margin removed)
1
61%
X
22%
2
16%
1 Home win 61%
Strong value 1 St. Truiden +3.2%
Fair price 1.65
Unibet (NL) 1.70
Live price ·
First Division Ireland
Longford Town — Finn Harps
Market probability (margin removed)
1
57%
X
25%
2
18%
1 Home win 57%
Strong value 1 Longford Town +3.1%
Fair price 1.67
Unibet 1.72
Live price ·
2. Bundesliga
Karlsruher SC — Arminia Bielefeld
Market probability (margin removed)
1
33%
X
23%
2
44%
1/2 Home or away 77%
Strong value 2 Arminia Bielefeld +3%
Fair price 2.33
Tipico 2.40
Live price ·
Allsvenskan
Hammarby FF — BK Hacken
Market probability (margin removed)
1
63%
X
19%
2
18%
1 Home win 63%
Value flag 1 Hammarby FF +2.9%
Fair price 1.55
Coolbet 1.60
Live price ·
Allsvenskan
IFK Goteborg — Kalmar FF
Market probability (margin removed)
1
43%
X
27%
2
31%
1/2 Home or away 73%
Value flag 2 Kalmar FF +2.9%
Fair price 3.11
Unibet (SE) 3.20
Live price ·
Latvia 1. Liga
Tukums II — JDFS Alberts
Model probability
1
18%
X
21%
2
61%
2 Away win 61%
Value flag 2 JDFS Alberts +2.8%
Fair price 1.34
Bet365 1.38
Live price ·
Swiss Super League
Servette FC — Grasshoppers
Market probability (margin removed)
1
60%
X
22%
2
18%
1 Home win 60%
Value flag 1 Servette FC +2.7%
Fair price 1.62
GTbets 1.66
Live price ·
Ekstraklasa
Cracovia Krakow — Pogon Szczecin
Market probability (margin removed)
1
40%
X
35%
2
25%
1/X Home or draw 75%
Value flag 1 Cracovia Krakow +2.6%
Fair price 2.36
Betfair 2.42
Live price ·
Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam — Feyenoord
Market probability (margin removed)
1
21%
X
22%
2
58%
2 Away win 58%
Value flag 2 Feyenoord +2.5%
Fair price 1.74
Unibet (NL) 1.78
Edge shrinking ·
Premier Division
Galway United — Drogheda United
Market probability (margin removed)
1
48%
X
27%
2
25%
1/X Home or draw 75%
Value flag 1 Galway United +2.4%
Fair price 2.10
William Hill 2.15
Edge shrinking ·
Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi — OH Leuven
Market probability (margin removed)
1
53%
X
26%
2
21%
1/X Home or draw 79%
Value flag 1 Charleroi +2.3%
Fair price 1.84
Unibet (NL) 1.88
Edge shrinking ·
Swiss Super League
FC ST. Gallen — FC Luzern
Market probability (margin removed)
1
44%
X
27%
2
30%
1/2 Home or away 73%
Value flag 1 FC ST. Gallen +2.2%
Fair price 2.10
Coolbet 2.15
Live price ·
Primeira Liga
Estrela — Sporting CP
Market probability (margin removed)
1
6%
X
12%
2
82%
2 Away win 82%
Value flag 2 Sporting CP +2.2%
Fair price 1.21
Nordic Bet 1.24
Edge shrinking ·
Eredivisie
NEC Nijmegen — Telstar
Market probability (margin removed)
1
69%
X
17%
2
13%
1 Home win 69%
Value flag 1 NEC Nijmegen +2.1%
Fair price 1.44
Betfair 1.47
Edge shrinking ·
Allsvenskan
Malmo FF — Degerfors IF
Market probability (margin removed)
1
63%
X
21%
2
16%
1 Home win 63%
Value flag 1 Malmo FF +2.1%
Fair price 1.57
Coolbet 1.60
Live price ·
Allsvenskan
Orgryte IS — AIK Stockholm
Market probability (margin removed)
1
26%
X
22%
2
53%
1/2 Home or away 78%
Value flag 2 AIK Stockholm +2.1%
Fair price 2.21
Betfair 2.26
Edge shrinking ·
Danish Superliga
Odense — Sonderjyske
Market probability (margin removed)
1
48%
X
25%
2
27%
1/2 Home or away 75%
Value flag 1 Odense +2%
Fair price 2.24
Matchbook 2.28
Live price ·
Allsvenskan
Mjallby AIF — IF Elfsborg
Market probability (margin removed)
1
46%
X
27%
2
27%
1/2 Home or away 73%
Value flag 1 Mjallby AIF +1.9%
Fair price 2.16
Coolbet 2.20
Live price ·
Ukraine Premier League
Shakhtar Donetsk — Kudrivka
Model probability
1
77%
X
16%
2
7%
1 Home win 77%
Value flag 1 Shakhtar Donetsk +1.8%
Fair price 1.13
Dafabet 1.15
Live price ·
Eliteserien
Ham-Kam — Aalesund
Market probability (margin removed)
1
47%
X
25%
2
29%
1/2 Home or away 75%
Value flag 2 Aalesund +1.5%
Fair price 3.32
Coolbet 3.37
Live price ·
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