Pre-registered experiment · paper, no money
Do goal-market prices above the fair line beat the close?
Our value flags cover only 1X2. Before we ever show a flag on over/under or both teams to score, this experiment measures whether such prices beat the devigged Pinnacle close. Flags are recorded when found and listed here only after kick-off; nothing is staked.
Interim, as of 2 Nov 2026: 19 flags with a closing price out of 19 after kick-off (coverage 100%). Average closing line value: +2.99% (interval shown from 30 flags). Decision at 300 flags with a close or 31 Mar 2027, whichever comes first.
The numbers so far
| Flags after kick-off | 19 |
| Flags waiting for kick-off (not shown) | 0 |
| Settled | 19 |
| With a closing price (towards 300) | 19 / 300 |
| Average CLV vs the devigged close | +2.99% |
| CLV at the same bookmaker's next reading (price gone at that reading: 16%) | -1.62% (n=16) |
| Flat-stake return | shown from 100 settled flags |
Flags after kick-off
| Match | Selection | Bookmaker | Flag price | Fair at flag | Next reading | Fair close | CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle – Everton · Premier League | Under 2.5 | LeoVegas (SE) | 2.28 | 2.15 | 2.20 | 2.17 | +5.2% | pending |
| Barcelona – Alaves · La Liga | Over 3.5 | 1xBet | 1.68 | 1.60 | 1.68 | 1.53 | +9.6% | won |
| FC Augsburg – SC Freiburg · Bundesliga | Under 2.5 | Coolbet | 2.74 | 2.57 | 2.49 | 2.67 | +2.7% | lost |
| SC Paderborn 07 – VfB Stuttgart · DFB Pokal | Over 3.5 | LeoVegas (SE) | 2.15 | 2.02 | 2.02 | 2.04 | +5.5% | lost |
| FC Thun – FC Lugano · Swiss Super League | Over 3.5 | Unibet (NL) | 2.10 | 2.00 | 2.10 | 2.13 | -1.3% | won |
| Atletico Madrid – Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga | Over 2.5 | 1xBet | 1.65 | 1.56 | not re-observed | 1.51 | +9.0% | lost |
| Chongqing Tongliang Long – Qingdao Jonoon · China Super League | Under 2.5 | Unibet (NL) | 2.43 | 2.27 | 2.23 | 3.13 | -22.4% | won |
| Al-Ettifaq – Al-Ittihad FC · Saudi Pro League | Under 3.5 | Unibet (NL) | 1.64 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.49 | +10.3% | lost |
| Al-Fayha – Al-Ahli Jeddah · Saudi Pro League | Under 3.5 | Unibet (NL) | 1.54 | 1.46 | not re-observed | 1.45 | +6.5% | lost |
| Sporting Kansas City – Real Salt Lake · MLS | Under 3.5 | 1xBet | 1.83 | 1.73 | 1.83 | 1.73 | +5.9% | lost |
| Inter Turku – AC Oulu · Veikkausliiga | Over 2.5 | Coolbet | 1.95 | 1.84 | 1.95 | 1.85 | +5.7% | won |
| Stockport County – Bromley · League One | Over 3.5 | LeoVegas (SE) | 2.08 | 1.95 | 2.08 | 2.07 | +0.6% | lost |
| Real Sociedad II – Almeria · Segunda Division | Under 3.5 | 1xBet | 1.61 | 1.53 | not re-observed | 1.52 | +6.0% | lost |
| Celta Vigo – Juventus · UEFA Europa League | Under 2.5 | Coolbet | 1.70 | 1.61 | 1.70 | 1.67 | +1.9% | lost |
| Bournemouth – Sturm Graz · UEFA Europa League | Over 3.5 | Coolbet | 1.98 | 1.88 | 1.87 | 1.99 | -0.5% | lost |
| Sparta Praha – Lillestrom · UEFA Europa League | Over 3.5 | Coolbet | 2.18 | 2.03 | 1.99 | 2.14 | +1.8% | lost |
| DC United – New York Red Bulls · MLS | Under 3.5 | 1xBet | 1.87 | 1.77 | 1.80 | 1.76 | +6.5% | won |
| Galatasaray – Barcelona · UEFA Champions League | Over 4.5 | 1xBet | 2.36 | 2.20 | 2.25 | 2.43 | -2.8% | won |
| Arsenal – Lille · UEFA Champions League | Under 3.5 | 1xBet | 1.73 | 1.60 | 1.65 | 1.62 | +6.5% | won |
By market, gap and bookmaker (with a close)
| Over/under | n=19 | +3.0% |
| Both teams to score | n=0 | — |
| Gap 5–8% | n=19 | +3.0% |
| Gap 8–12% | n=0 | — |
| 1xBet | n=7 | +5.8% |
| Coolbet | n=5 | +2.3% |
| Unibet (NL) | n=4 | -1.7% |
| LeoVegas (SE) | n=3 | +3.7% |
The frozen rules
- T0 = 9 Oct 2026, 19:06 UTC; flags count only from then.
- Markets: over/under on half-goal lines and both teams to score; World Cup and Nations League excluded.
- Five readings per match from the-odds-api (EU region): about 6 h, 3 h, 90 min and 45 min before kick-off, plus a close 3–15 min before.
- Fair price: Pinnacle on the same line in the same reading, margin removed, market updated at most 90 minutes earlier.
- Flag: a soft bookmaker's market updated at most 60 minutes earlier, price at most 3.50, 5% to 12% above the fair price; exchanges and UK-only bookmakers excluded (list frozen at registration).
- One flag per match: the first qualifying reading, largest gap.
- CLV against Pinnacle's devigged close: updated after the flag and read in the last 30 minutes before kick-off. Decision on the first 300 flags with a close, or on the flags detected by 31 Mar 2027.
Frozen specification (SHA-256 fcc30e8b5f02a236…) → · OpenTimestamps proof (.ots)
TIPS-EXP-006: value flags at soft-bookmaker prices → · Methodology → · Corrections log →
