MVV 1–5 Heracles
Final score · Half-time 1–2 · All of yesterday's results
At kick-off Pinnacle, with its margin removed, made Heracles the most likely outcome at 70%: fair odds of 1.43.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 33' Sil van der Wegen · goal · assist Yael Liesdek · MVV
- 41' Maurice Wrusch · goal · Heracles
- 43' Chafik Abbas · goal · assist Jean-Paul N'djoli · Heracles
- 51' Manny Rodriguez Baldera · goal · assist Chafik Abbas · Heracles
- 62' Jean-Paul N'djoli · goal · assist Chafik Abbas · Heracles
- 82' Jean-Paul N'djoli · goal · assist Mario Engels · Heracles
- 89' Lennerd Daneels · yellow card · MVV
Match stats
| Match stats | MVV | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 46 | 54 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.58 | 2.88 |
| Shots | 7 | 23 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 12 |
| Corners | 3 | 9 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 0 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 9 | 12 |
| Offsides | 2 | 4 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 5 | 2 |
What the market said before kick-off
- MVV win 14% did not happen
- Draw 17% did not happen
- Heracles win 70% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Fair price at kick-off (Pinnacle's closing price, margin removed)
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chance | 14% | 17% | 70% |
| Fair odds | 7.31 | 6.02 | 1.43 |
| Pinnacle odds | 6.39 | 5.33 | 1.40 |
For this competition we show the market's fair price only. These matches are not part of our track record, value flags or experiments, and we do not run our own model on them or compare bookmakers here.
Match context
MVV scored 0.8 and conceded 3 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Heracles scored 2 and conceded 1 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Why only a fair price here
We price this competition from Pinnacle's odds alone, read from our data provider several times a day: the margin is removed and nothing is added. Our track record, value flags and experiments cover only the leagues where we also log our own predictions and compare bookmakers. Methodology
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