Statarea, audited against the closing line
Below the closing line In plain words: the best odds on Statarea's predictions, when we read them, were on average 2.05% below the fair closing price.
As of 2 Nov 2026, Statarea has 1,699 settled predictions on matches we price. Of the 1,540 that were won or lost at a bookmaker price recorded when we read them, 52.8% were right, against 52.0% needed to break even at those odds. Flat-stake return at the recorded odds: +1.0% on 1,540 priced predictions. Closing line value: -2.05% (95% interval -2.41% to -1.69%, 1,444 predictions). The interval sits below zero: the best price available when we read them was worse than the fair closing price, so on average these predictions cost more than they were worth. Closing line value settles much faster than hit rate or return, so we judge on it: a hit rate above break-even or a positive return next to a closing line value below zero most likely reflects variance, not an edge.
Measured by market
| Market | CLV (95% interval) | Hit rate | Break-even | ROI | Settled | Read | On our matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | -2.05% [-2.41; -1.69] · n=1,444 | 52.8%n=1,540 | 52.0% | +1.0% | 1,699 | 4,235 | 1,970 |
Hit rate and break-even use the predictions won or lost at a bookmaker price recorded when we read them (n under the rate; the best soft-bookmaker odds, exchanges excluded). CLV is measured against Pinnacle's closing price on the same selection with the margin removed; the 95% interval appears from 30 predictions and the return from 100 priced predictions.
Statarea predictions today, checked against the fair price
Each pick is what Statarea's public page showed before kick-off: a match result, or double chance (1X, X2, 12) where it gave no match-result pick. The fair chance comes from the sharpest market price right now, with the bookmaker margin removed. This is not a tip.
Statarea's record so far: Below the closing line (1,699 settled picks) · All measured sites side by side on today's page →
| Time | Match | Their pick | Fair chance now | Best odds | Measured sites |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albion FCDeportivo MaldonadoUruguay Primera Division | Deportivo Maldonado2 | 43%fair 2.35 | 2.27Dafabet | 2 of 3 sites pick this |
What this means for you
Statarea publishes free 1X2 predictions with probabilities across a very wide range of leagues. That breadth is its appeal and its problem for verification: a high headline accuracy is usually favourites doing what favourites do, and says nothing about whether following the picks beats the price you pay. The test that matters is closing-line value, measured forward, which is exactly what this page accumulates.
How we measure
We read their public prediction pages every day before kick-off. Their match-result picks for matches still to play today and tomorrow are listed on this page as we read them, next to the fair price; after kick-off we publish only aggregate figures. Each prediction is matched to a fixture we price, settled on the 90-minute result, priced at the best bookmaker odds available when we read it (exchanges excluded) and compared with Pinnacle's closing price on the same selection with the margin removed. A prediction read after kick-off does not count.
Coverage since 15 Sep 2026: 4,235 predictions read on all markets, 1,970 of them on matches we price, of which 1,699 are settled and 3 still pending. Since 15 Oct 2026 we also look up the predictions we cannot match in our data provider's fixture list for all competitions: of the 918 looked up, 650 turned out to be fixtures in competitions we do not cover. Pages we read every day: statarea.com/predictions.
Full methodology → Are free football prediction sites accurate? We measure them in public → What is closing line value (CLV)? →
Frequently asked
Is Statarea accurate?
The full answer, with the date of the figures, is at the top of this page.
How many of Statarea's predictions did TipsAudit check?
Since 15 Sep 2026 we have read 4,235 public predictions from Statarea. 1,970 are on matches we price: 1,699 settled, 3 still pending, 221 read after kick-off (these do not count) and 47 void or without a usable result. The other 2,265 are not, or not yet, matched to a fixture we price. Since 15 Oct 2026 we also look these up in our data provider's fixture list for all competitions: of the 918 looked up, 650 turned out to be fixtures in competitions we do not cover. We read their public prediction pages every day before kick-off; apart from their match-result picks for matches still to play today and tomorrow, we publish only aggregate figures.
What is Statarea's closing line value?
Across 1,444 predictions with a measurable close, Statarea's average closing line value is -2.05% (95% interval -2.41% to -1.69%), measured against Pinnacle's closing price on the same selection with the margin removed. The interval sits below zero: the best price available when we read them was worse than the fair closing price, so on average these predictions cost more than they were worth.
Which market is Statarea best at?
Only one market has enough predictions with a measurable close to judge, Match result (1X2): closing line value -2.05% (95% interval -2.41% to -1.69%, 1444 predictions). The interval sits below zero: the best price available when we read them was worse than the fair closing price, so on average these predictions cost more than they were worth.
Right of reply: if Statarea disputes a figure on this page, write to us and we will publish the response next to it.
We have no affiliation with Statarea or with any bookmaker, sell no picks and measure our own predictions the same way.
