Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0 Karlsruher SC
12' · Live score from API-Football, about a minute behind; the official result is confirmed after the match.
The match has started. Before kick-off the sharp market made Borussia Mönchengladbach the most likely outcome at 64% (fair odds 1.57). We make no new value calls once a match is under way. Recent form — Borussia Mönchengladbach: WLLLL; Karlsruher SC: LWLLL.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 65% | 19% | 16% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 44% | 26% | 29% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Starting line-ups
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4-2-1
- 33 D. Batz GK
- 16 P. Sander DF
- 22 Y. Konoplya DF
- 2 F. Chiarodia DF
- 29 J. Scally MF
- 47 Z. Uno MF
- 7 K. Stöger MF
- 20 D. Herold MF
- 38 H. Bolin MF
- 25 R. Hack MF
- 18 S. Machino FW
Bench: J. Castrop, I. M. Danfa, K. Itakura, W. Mohya, F. Neuhaus, M. Nguefack, J. Olschowsky, Lion Schweers, L. Ullrich
Coach: A. Blessin
Regular starters not in the XI
- M. Nicolas — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
- F. Neuhaus — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- L. Ullrich — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- K. Diks — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
Karlsruher SC 4-2-3-1
- 1 H. Bernat GK
- 22 C. Kobald DF
- 28 M. Franke DF
- 24 S. Trémoulet DF
- 3 D. Ofli DF
- 25 L. Egloff MF
- 6 S. Väänänen MF
- 36 Rafael Pinto Pedrosa MF
- 23 T. Civeja MF
- 10 M. Wanitzek MF
- 13 S. Fukuda FW
Bench: K. Wiethaup, Paul Scholl, J. Ponente, J. D. Meyer, R. Himmelmann, N. Eichinger, V. Bergh, Louey Ben Farhat, D. H. Zor
Coach: M. Senft
Regular starters not in the XI
- V. Bergh — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Match context
Borussia Mönchengladbach averaged 1.6 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Karlsruher SC averaged 1.0 and 2.4 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
Measured by TipsAudit
- Most accurate football prediction site? Ranked against the closing line
- Is Statarea accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is ProSoccer.gr accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is FootballPredictions.net accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Independent tipster audit: verified track records
- How to check if a tipster is legit
- Can you verify a Telegram tipster? What we found reading their tips
- Are free football prediction sites accurate? We measure them in public
- Which bookmaker has the lowest margin? Live index
- Free value bet finder for football
- What is closing line value (CLV)?
- Free football predictions dataset with closing odds (CSV)
- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included