Borussia Dortmund 0–0 Werder Bremen
2' · Live score from API-Football, about a minute behind; the official result is confirmed after the match.
The match has started. Before kick-off the sharp market made Borussia Dortmund the most likely outcome at 73% (fair odds 1.36). We make no new value calls once a match is under way. Recent form — Borussia Dortmund: WWDLD; Werder Bremen: WDDWD.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
The match has started. This flag was recorded before kick-off and is settled against the closing price after the final whistle.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 70% | 17% | 13% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 77% | 15% | 8% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Starting line-ups
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1
- 1 G. Kobel GK
- 3 W. Anton DF
- 4 N. Schlotterbeck DF
- 22 Kouakou Joane Gadou DF
- 25 J. Veerman MF
- 7 J. Bellingham MF
- 8 F. Nmecha MF
- 17 C. Chukwuemeka MF
- 26 J. Ryerson MF
- 14 M. Beier MF
- 9 S. Guirassy FW
Bench: P. Drewes, S. Inacio, F. Mané, M. Albert, E. Nwaneri, L. Reggiani, M. Sabitzer, Fábio Silva, D. Svensson
Coach: N. Kovač
Regular starters not in the XI
- D. Svensson — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
- 1 K. Hein GK
- 13 Arthur DF
- 5 A. Pieper DF
- 32 M. Friedl DF
- 33 Mick Schmetgens DF
- 23 Dariusz Stalmach MF
- 44 Y. Regeer MF
- 18 E. Dinkçi MF
- 20 Chuky San José MF
- 17 M. Grüll MF
- 26 C. Itten FW
Bench: P. Erevbenagie, N. Füllkrug, S. Lynen, L. Reis, A. Schlager, D. Soylu, M. Weiser, O. Wójcik, Mats Ole Heitmann
Coach: D. Thioune
Regular starters not in the XI
- O. Deman — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
- L. Reis — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- N. Füllkrug — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Value lifecycle
“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.
Match context
Borussia Dortmund averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Werder Bremen averaged 2.2 and 1.8 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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