SV Elversberg 0–1 SV Darmstadt 98
11' · Live score from API-Football, about a minute behind; the official result is confirmed after the match.
The match has started. Before kick-off the sharp market made SV Elversberg the most likely outcome at 66% (fair odds 1.52). We make no new value calls once a match is under way. Recent form — SV Elversberg: LWLDL; SV Darmstadt 98: DLWLW.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 68% | 18% | 14% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 67% | 20% | 14% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Starting line-ups
SV Elversberg 4-2-3-1
- 20 N. Kristof GK
- 26 L. Sirch DF
- 19 L. Pinckert DF
- 3 F. Le Joncour DF
- 21 L. Günther DF
- 6 A. Condé MF
- 8 Ł. Poręba MF
- 25 L. Petkov MF
- 17 F. Schmahl MF
- 39 William Cole Campbell MF
- 9 N. Futkeu FW
Bench: L. Schnellbacher, F. Keidel, T. Boss, R. Adam, N. Mickelson, M. Krattenmacher, D. Mokwa, Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka, M. Rohr
Coach: V. Wagner
Regular starters not in the XI
- M. Rohr — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- F. Keidel — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- J. Gyamerah — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- D. Mokwa — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
SV Darmstadt 98 3-1-4-2
- 1 M. Schuhen GK
- 6 P. Pfeiffer DF
- 49 Y. Lührs DF
- 18 R. Petretta DF
- 17 K. Klefisch MF
- 28 C. Lannert MF
- 10 N. Verkooijen MF
- 41 L. Duijvestijn MF
- 3 F. Kleinhansl MF
- 36 M. Smit FW
- 9 Lee Ho-Jae FW
Bench: M. Bader, A. Brunst, I. El Kadiri, L. Kehl, F. Lakenmacher, W. Mikelbrencis, A. Vukotić, H. Akiyama, N. Weißhaupt
Coach: F. Kohfeldt
Regular starters not in the XI
- N. Weißhaupt — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- M. Richter — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Match context
SV Elversberg averaged 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; SV Darmstadt 98 averaged 1.2 and 2.2 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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