1. FC Köln 0–0 Union Berlin
8' · Live score from API-Football, about a minute behind; the official result is confirmed after the match.
The match has started. Before kick-off the sharp market made 1. FC Köln the most likely outcome at 57% (fair odds 1.76). We make no new value calls once a match is under way. Recent form — 1. FC Köln: DLWLD; Union Berlin: DDWLL.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
The match has started. This flag was recorded before kick-off and is settled against the closing price after the final whistle.
Two most likely results
When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 55% | 24% | 21% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Starting line-ups
1. FC Köln 4-2-3-1
- 1 M. Schwäbe GK
- 17 A. Castro-Montes DF
- 2 J. Schmied DF
- 22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey DF
- 3 B. Sosa DF
- 5 T. Krauß MF
- 23 Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler MF
- 37 L. Maina MF
- 47 M. Moore MF
- 10 S. El Mala MF
- 30 M. Bülter FW
Bench: R. Zieler, L. Waldschmidt, J. Thielmann, S. Sebulonsen, G. Mensah, L. Lochoshvili, Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson, Reigan Heskey, M. El Mala
Coach: René Wagner
Regular starters not in the XI
- L. Lochoshvili — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
Union Berlin 4-2-3-1
- 31 M. Raab GK
- 19 J. Haberer DF
- 4 Z. Van Den Bosch DF
- 14 L. Querfeld DF
- 15 T. Rothe DF
- 13 A. Schäfer MF
- 8 R. Khedira MF
- 11 Jeong Woo-Yeong MF
- 20 M. Aebischer MF
- 21 T. Skarke MF
- 32 M. Gray FW
Bench: Livan Burcu, M. Friedrich, K. Imeri, A. Kemlein, D. Köhn, E. Latte Lath, M. LjubiÄiÄ, F. Rønnow, C. Trimmel
Coach: M. Lustrinelli
Regular starters not in the XI
- F. Rønnow — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- F. Uduokhai — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Value lifecycle
“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.
Match context
1. FC Köln averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Union Berlin averaged 0.6 and 2.2 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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