Matsumoto Yamaga 0–2 Renofa Yamaguchi
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · Latest results
At kick-off Pinnacle, with its margin removed, made Renofa Yamaguchi the most likely outcome at 37%: fair odds of 2.73.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 68' 0–1 R. Gunji · goal · assist T. Itakura · Renofa Yamaguchi
- 70' 0–2 N. Nomura · goal · assist T. Ito · Renofa Yamaguchi
- 76' R. Yasunaga · yellow card · Matsumoto Yamaga
- 90+1' K. Oiwa · yellow card · Renofa Yamaguchi
What the market said before kick-off
- Matsumoto Yamaga win 35% did not happen
- Draw 28% did not happen
- Renofa Yamaguchi win 37% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Fair price at kick-off (Pinnacle's closing price, margin removed)
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chance | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Fair odds | 2.86 | 3.51 | 2.73 |
| Pinnacle odds | 2.63 | 3.17 | 2.52 |
For this competition we show the market's fair price only. These matches are not part of our track record, value flags or experiments, and we do not run our own model on them or compare bookmakers here.
Match context
Matsumoto Yamaga averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Renofa Yamaguchi averaged 1.6 and 0.8 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Why only a fair price here
We price this competition from Pinnacle's odds alone, read from our data provider several times a day: the margin is removed and nothing is added. Our track record, value flags and experiments cover only the leagues where we also log our own predictions and compare bookmakers. Methodology
Measured by TipsAudit
- Most accurate football prediction site? Ranked against the closing line
- 100% sure football predictions? How often favourites really win
- Accumulator tips today, with the real chance it wins
- Is Statarea accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is WinDrawWin accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is ProSoccer.gr accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Independent tipster audit: verified track records
- How to check if a tipster is legit
- Can you verify a Telegram tipster? What we found reading their tips
- Are free football prediction sites accurate? We measure them in public
- Which bookmaker has the lowest margin? Live index
- Free value bet finder for football
- What is closing line value (CLV)?
- Free football predictions dataset with closing odds (CSV)
- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included
