Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–1 Al-Gharafa
Final score · Half-time 1–0 · Latest results
At kick-off Pinnacle, with its margin removed, made Al-Ahli Jeddah the most likely outcome at 77%: fair odds of 1.30.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 4' 1–0 Ivan Toney · goal · assist Eduard Spertsyan · Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 18' Fabricio Díaz · yellow card · Al-Gharafa
- 29' Ivan Toney · yellow card · Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 42' Hyun-Soo Jang · yellow card · Al-Gharafa
- 53' 1–1 Florinel Coman · goal · assist Saifeldeen Fadlalla · Al-Gharafa
- 70' Seydou Sano · yellow card · Al-Gharafa
- 74' Saad Yaslam Balobaid · yellow card · Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 77' Seydou Sano · red card (after a yellow) · Al-Gharafa
- 86' 2–1 Matheus Gonçalves Martins · goal · Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 89' Abdulrahman Al-Rashidi · yellow card · Al-Gharafa
- 90+3' Ferjani Sassi · yellow card · Al-Gharafa
Match stats
| Match stats | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Al-Gharafa |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 62 | 38 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.88 | 0.47 |
| Shots | 11 | 13 |
| Shots on target | 2 | 2 |
| Corners | 3 | 3 |
| Fouls | 10 | 14 |
| Offsides | 3 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 1 | 0 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Al-Ahli Jeddah win 77% happened
- Draw 14% did not happen
- Al-Gharafa win 9% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Fair price at kick-off (Pinnacle's closing price, margin removed)
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chance | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Fair odds | 1.30 | 7.27 | 10.85 |
| Pinnacle odds | 1.27 | 6.15 | 8.88 |
For this competition we show the market's fair price only. These matches are not part of our track record, value flags or experiments, and we do not run our own model on them or compare bookmakers here.
Match context
Al-Ahli Jeddah averaged 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Al-Gharafa averaged 0.6 and 2.6 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Why only a fair price here
We price this competition from Pinnacle's odds alone, read from our data provider several times a day: the margin is removed and nothing is added. Our track record, value flags and experiments cover only the leagues where we also log our own predictions and compare bookmakers. Methodology
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