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Hungary NB II

Kozarmisleny FC 0–2 Diosgyori VTK

Final score · Half-time 0–0 · Latest results

In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Diosgyori VTK was the most likely outcome at 48% (fair odds 2.10). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Kozarmisleny FC: DWLLL; Diosgyori VTK: WLLLD.

After the whistle

Goals and cards

  1. 31' G. Holdampf · yellow card · Diosgyori VTK
  2. 34' C. Szatmari · yellow card · Diosgyori VTK
  3. 46' 0–1 B. Babinszky · goal · Diosgyori VTK
  4. 74' 0–2 L. Vass · goal · Diosgyori VTK
  5. 86' A. Benyei · yellow card · Diosgyori VTK
  6. 86' G. Stumpf · yellow card · Kozarmisleny FC

What the market said before kick-off

  • Kozarmisleny FC win 24% did not happen
  • Draw 27% did not happen
  • Diosgyori VTK win 49% happened
  • Over 2.5 goals 51% did not happen

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Next matches

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

Kozarmisleny FC

  1. 66 S. Lekai
  2. 10 B. Zamostny
  3. 14 P. Molnar
  4. 17 M. Biro
  5. 24 D. Kocsis
  6. 55 G. Stumpf
  7. 7 P. Szucs
  8. 70 K. Laszlo
  9. 77 T. Turi
  10. 81 R. Vajda
  11. 90 C. Feher

Bench: M. Toth, K. Kirchner, B. Vogyicska, Z. Debreceni, B. Herczeg, B. Kozics, D. Bene, B. Geiger, Z. Csucsanszky, M. Katai-Urban, R. Jelena

Coach: Matyas Czuczi

Diosgyori VTK

  1. 99 D. Grof
  2. 6 B. Bardos
  3. 7 B. Babinszky
  4. 10 G. Molnar
  5. 11 Z. Galfi
  6. 21 T. Galantai
  7. 22 S. Bokros
  8. 25 G. Holdampf
  9. 26 M. Szekszardi
  10. 87 M. Revesz
  11. 3 C. Szatmari

Bench: A. Kecskes, L. Vass, Z. Medgyes, L. Kiss, A. Benyei, A. Borveto, G. Megyeri, M. Mucsanyi, S. Sareczki, L. Adam

Coach: Tamas Feczko

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check before kick-off

No value

No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.

Two most likely results

X/2 Draw or away 74% · as recorded

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp, recorded26%27%48%
Other estimates
Our model52%25%24%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.34
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 3.44 / 3.28 / 1.96
Pick result (single or double chance) Won · 2

Match context

Kozarmisleny FC averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Diosgyori VTK averaged 1.0 and 1.8 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Kozarmisleny FC
D W L L L
avg 1 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)
Diosgyori VTK
W L L L D
avg 1 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick X/2 · Draw or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.23
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) 1.21
Prediction CLV +1.3%
Result Won
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint e711ff3d571a0fe8

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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