Most likely wins: the record
A match enters the record when its win first reaches 65% and stays there, even if the chance falls before kick-off. We compare the last chance shown before kick-off with the result after 90 minutes.
Live record
Recording since 18 October 2026.
38 of 50 won (76%); chance shown: 74% on average.
| Chance shown | Matches | Average shown | Won | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 65% (left the list) | 1 | 63.0% | 0.0% | from 30 matches |
| 65–70% | 18 | 68.1% | 55.6% | from 30 matches |
| 70–75% | 13 | 72.1% | 84.6% | from 30 matches |
| 75–80% | 9 | 77.2% | 100.0% | from 30 matches |
| 80–100% | 9 | 86.3% | 88.9% | from 30 matches |
Last 30 days
| Day | Matches | Won | Average shown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 18 Oct 2026 | 50 | 38 (76%) | 74% |
Latest results
| Kick-off | Match | Win | Chance | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cienciano UTC CajamarcaPeru Liga 1 | Cienciano | 83% | ✓ Won | |
| FAS PlatenseEl Salvador Primera Division | FAS | 69% | ✗ Lost | |
| Club Atlético Güemes AlmagroPrimera Nacional | Almagro | 63% | ✗ Lost | |
| Real Madrid SevillaLa Liga | Real Madrid | 78% | ✓ Won | |
| Paredes FamalicaoPortugal Taça de Portugal | Famalicao | 70% | ✗ Lost | |
| PAOK Iraklis 1908Greek Super League | PAOK | 74% | ✓ Won | |
| Twente UtrechtEredivisie | Twente | 73% | ✗ Lost | |
| Leones Negros UDG Alebrijes de OaxacaMexico Liga de Expansión MX | Leones Negros UDG | 70% | ✗ Lost | |
| Universitatea Craiova Farul ConstantaRomania Liga I | Universitatea Craiova | 68% | ✓ Won | |
| Tromso KFUM OsloEliteserien | Tromso | 66% | ✗ Lost | |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel KatamonLigat ha'Al | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 75% | ✓ Won | |
| JS Kabylie US BiskraAlgeria Ligue 1 | JS Kabylie | 73% | ✓ Won | |
| Vikingur Gota ABFaroe Islands Meistaradeildin | Vikingur Gota | 67% | ✓ Won | |
| Sporting Cristal Comerciantes UnidosPeru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 77% | ✓ Won | |
| Kisvarda FC Ferencvarosi TCHungary NB I | Ferencvarosi TC | 65% | ✗ Lost | |
| NK Slaven Belupo Dinamo ZagrebCroatia HNL | Dinamo Zagreb | 70% | ✓ Won | |
| Muş Sport Klübü AnkarasporTurkey 2. Lig | Muş Sport Klübü | 67% | ✓ Won | |
| Somaspor Aliağa FAŞTurkey 2. Lig | Aliağa FAŞ | 68% | ✓ Won | |
| Atletico Madrid W Madrid CFF WSpain Primera División Femenina | Atletico Madrid W | 67% | ✓ Won | |
| Molde StartEliteserien | Molde | 71% | ✓ Won | |
| ODD Ballklubb StrommenNorway 1. Division | ODD Ballklubb | 66% | ✗ Lost | |
| Kongsvinger Sandnes ULFNorway 1. Division | Kongsvinger | 73% | ✓ Won | |
| Asane StabaekNorway 1. Division | Stabaek | 71% | ✓ Won | |
| MVV HeraclesEerste Divisie | Heracles | 70% | ✓ Won | |
| Halmstad Hammarby FFAllsvenskan | Hammarby FF | 79% | ✓ Won | |
| Panathinaikos Asteras TripolisGreek Super League | Panathinaikos | 82% | ✓ Won | |
| FK Crvena Zvezda Mladost LucaniSerbia Super Liga | FK Crvena Zvezda | 94% | ✓ Won | |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius Hegelmann LitauenLithuania A Lyga | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 71% | ✓ Won | |
| Panetolikos Olympiakos PiraeusGreek Super League | Olympiakos Piraeus | 74% | ✓ Won | |
| Fátima Academico ViseuPortugal Taça de Portugal | Academico Viseu | 68% | ✗ Lost | |
| Lusitânia Lourosa Os LimianosPortugal Taça de Portugal | Lusitânia Lourosa | 81% | ✓ Won | |
| Salgueiros EstorilPortugal Taça de Portugal | Estoril | 72% | ✗ Lost | |
| F91 Dudelange Swift HesperangeLuxembourg National Division | F91 Dudelange | 90% | ✓ Won | |
| US Mondorf-les-bains WiltzLuxembourg National Division | US Mondorf-les-bains | 78% | ✓ Won | |
| Victoria Rosport FC Differdange 03Luxembourg National Division | FC Differdange 03 | 83% | ✓ Won | |
| KI Klaksvik B68Faroe Islands Meistaradeildin | KI Klaksvik | 90% | ✗ Lost | |
| NSI Runavik 07 VesturFaroe Islands Meistaradeildin | NSI Runavik | 78% | ✓ Won | |
| EB / Streymur HB TorshavnFaroe Islands Meistaradeildin | HB Torshavn | 67% | ✓ Won | |
| Atert Bissen US HostertLuxembourg National Division | Atert Bissen | 70% | ✓ Won | |
| Manchester City W Brighton WEngland FA WSL | Manchester City W | 73% | ✓ Won | |
| Khorfakkan Al Wahda FCUnited Arab Emirates Pro League | Al Wahda FC | 70% | ✓ Won | |
| Riga Super NovaLatvia Virsliga | Riga | 89% | ✓ Won | |
| Brighton Crystal PalacePremier League | Brighton | 69% | ✓ Won | |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven II HarelbekeBelgium First Amateur Division | Oud-Heverlee Leuven II | 70% | ✓ Won | |
| Charlton Athletic W Manchester United WEngland FA WSL | Manchester United W | 76% | ✓ Won | |
| London City Lionesses W Everton WEngland FA WSL | London City Lionesses W | 84% | ✓ Won | |
| Kuressaare FC Levadia TallinnEstonia Meistriliiga | FC Levadia Tallinn | 76% | ✓ Won | |
| BKMA Ararat-ArmeniaArmenia Premier League | Ararat-Armenia | 77% | ✓ Won | |
| Red Bull Salzburg SCR AltachAustrian Bundesliga | Red Bull Salzburg | 72% | ✓ Won | |
| Cambuur AZ AlkmaarEredivisie | AZ Alkmaar | 67% | ✗ Lost |
Backtest (before the list existed)
Not part of the live record: the same rule applied to the last Pinnacle price before kick-off on the 6,779 matches our model covered from 11 June 2026 to 19 October 2026. 924 of them had a win at 65% or more.
| Chance shown | Matches | Average shown | Won | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65–70% | 359 | 67.4% | 66.3% | 61.4% – 71.2% |
| 70–75% | 219 | 72.4% | 73.5% | 67.7% – 79.4% |
| 75–80% | 169 | 77.2% | 82.8% | 77.1% – 88.5% |
| 80–100% | 177 | 85.1% | 87.0% | 82.0% – 92.0% |
Betting on every one at Pinnacle's closing odds: -0.6 per 100 staked (95% interval -4.4 to +3.2). Most bookmakers pay less than Pinnacle on favourites.
This is the market's price, not a tip of ours: none of our models picks winners better than it. A high chance is not a profit: bookmakers usually pay less than the fair odds on favourites, and every match added to a slip lowers its chance.
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