Bulgaria

Bulgaria First League predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Bulgaria First League fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated at 12:21 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Fri · 15:00 UTC	CSKA 1948Spartak Varna	68% 1.44 fair 1.48	20% 4.45 fair 5.05	12% 7.17 fair 8.02	No value
Fri · 17:30 UTC	Lokomotiv SofiaBotev Plovdiv	34% 2.65 fair 2.91	28% 3.35 fair 3.63	38% 2.50 fair 2.62	No value
Sat · 12:00 UTC	Lokomotiv PlovdivLudogorets	10% 7.70 fair 10.17	22% 3.95 fair 4.64	69% 1.45 fair 1.46	No value

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
27 Oct	Cherno More Varna – Septemvri Sofia	2–0	58%
26 Oct	CSKA Sofia – Ludogorets	2–0	43%
26 Oct	Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Slavia Sofia	0–0	29%
24 Oct	Lokomotiv Sofia – Botev Vratsa	1–1	25%
24 Oct	Dunav Ruse – Spartak Varna	2–0	39%
23 Oct	CSKA 1948 – Botev Plovdiv	4–0	48%
12 Oct	Ludogorets – Arda Kardzhali	5–0	66%
11 Oct	CSKA 1948 – CSKA Sofia	2–3	50%
11 Oct	Cherno More Varna – Levski Sofia	0–2	59%
11 Oct	Septemvri Sofia – Dunav Ruse	2–3	27%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 17:58 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia	12	9	3	0	29	9	+20	30
2	Levski Sofia	10	9	1	0	23	4	+19	28
3	Ludogorets	11	8	2	1	21	9	+12	26
4	CSKA 1948	12	8	1	3	25	13	+12	25
5	Botev Plovdiv	12	6	1	5	17	18	-1	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	11	5	2	4	15	17	-2	17
7	Spartak Varna	12	3	4	5	11	17	-6	13
8	Slavia Sofia	12	2	6	4	9	9	+0	12
9	Dunav Ruse	12	3	2	7	15	21	-6	11
10	Botev Vratsa	12	2	4	6	10	21	-11	10
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	12	1	6	5	13	20	-7	9
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	12	2	3	7	6	14	-8	9
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	2	2	7	10	21	-11	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	1	3	7	11	22	-11	6

Team stats this season

81 matches this season: 2.65 goals per game, 49% over 2.5, 53% both teams scored. xG — per match (from 0 matches); 8.9 corners and 4.7 cards per match (from 81 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	Corners	Cards
CSKA 1948	12	2.08	1.08	75%	67%	17%	8.5	1.4
Dunav Ruse	12	1.25	1.75	67%	67%	8%	10.3	2.2
Septemvri Sofia	11	0.91	1.91	64%	55%	18%	7.7	2.8
Levski Sofia	10	2.30	0.40	60%	40%	60%	8.7	0.9
CSKA Sofia	12	2.42	0.75	58%	58%	42%	9.6	2.6
Cherno More Varna	11	1.00	2.00	55%	64%	0%	8.2	3.0
Botev Plovdiv	12	1.42	1.50	50%	42%	33%	9.3	2.0
Lokomotiv Sofia	12	1.08	1.67	50%	83%	8%	9.7	3.3
Botev Vratsa	12	0.83	1.75	50%	50%	17%	9.8	2.3
Ludogorets	11	1.91	0.82	46%	55%	36%	8.2	2.1
Arda Kardzhali	11	1.36	1.55	46%	55%	36%	7.4	2.4
Spartak Varna	12	0.92	1.42	33%	33%	33%	9.8	2.3
Slavia Sofia	12	0.75	0.75	25%	42%	42%	8.8	2.9
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	12	0.50	1.17	17%	33%	17%	8.0	2.9

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Levski Sofia	1.6	60.8%	0%
2	CSKA Sofia	2.5	20%	0%
3	Ludogorets	2.7	15.7%	0%
4	CSKA 1948	3.7	3.3%	0%
5	Arda Kardzhali	5.6	0.1%	0.1%
6	Botev Plovdiv	6	0%	0.1%
7	Dunav Ruse	8.7	0%	6.7%
8	Spartak Varna	9.9	0%	15%
9	Slavia Sofia	9.9	0%	18%
10	Botev Vratsa	10	0%	17.5%
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10.4	0%	22.8%
12	Lokomotiv Sofia	11	0%	32.8%
13	Cherno More Varna	11.2	0%	36.4%
14	Septemvri Sofia	11.9	0%	50.6%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Bulgaria First League predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Bulgaria First League is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Bulgaria First League fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Bulgaria First League betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Bulgaria First League match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit