South America

Copa Libertadores predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Copa Libertadores fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No match has a fair price yet. Fair prices appear once Pinnacle prices a match, usually about a week before kick-off.

Scheduled matches

Sat · 21:00 UTC Estudiantes L.P. – Palmeiras

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
23 Oct	Flamengo – Estudiantes L.P.	0–0 (penalties)	—
22 Oct	Palmeiras – Fluminense	0–1 (penalties)	—
16 Oct	Estudiantes L.P. – Flamengo	0–0	31%
15 Oct	Fluminense – Palmeiras	1–2	34%
18 Sep	Flamengo – Independiente del Valle	1–1	15%
17 Sep	Corinthians – Estudiantes L.P.	0–1	21%
16 Sep	LDU de Quito – Palmeiras	3–2 (penalties)	—
15 Sep	Platense – Fluminense	2–1	32%
11 Sep	Independiente del Valle – Flamengo	0–2	37%
10 Sep	Estudiantes L.P. – Corinthians	1–1	36%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Sat, 24 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Group A
1	Flamengo	6	5	1	0	14	2	+12	16
2	Estudiantes L.P.	6	2	3	1	6	5	+1	9
3	Independiente Medellin	6	2	1	3	6	11	-5	7
4	Cusco	6	0	1	5	4	12	-8	1
Group B
1	Coquimbo Unido	6	3	1	2	8	6	+2	10
2	Deportes Tolima	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
3	Club Nacional	6	2	2	2	7	9	-2	8
4	Universitario	6	1	3	2	5	6	-1	6
Group C
1	Independ. Rivadavia	6	5	1	0	15	6	+9	16
2	Fluminense	6	2	2	2	7	7	+0	8
3	Bolívar	6	1	2	3	6	8	-2	5
4	Deportivo La Guaira	6	0	3	3	6	13	-7	3
Group D
1	U. Catolica	6	4	1	1	8	4	+4	13
2	Cruzeiro	6	3	2	1	8	3	+5	11
3	Boca Juniors	6	2	1	3	6	5	+1	7
4	Barcelona SC	6	1	0	5	2	12	-10	3
Group E
1	Corinthians	6	3	2	1	8	4	+4	11
2	Platense	6	3	1	2	8	7	+1	10
3	Santa Fe	6	2	2	2	6	7	-1	8
4	Penarol	6	0	3	3	4	8	-4	3
Group F
1	Cerro Porteno	6	4	1	1	6	2	+4	13
2	Palmeiras	6	3	2	1	10	5	+5	11
3	Sporting Cristal	6	2	0	4	6	9	-3	6
4	Junior	6	1	1	4	5	11	-6	4
Group G
1	LDU de Quito	6	4	0	2	8	5	+3	12
2	Mirassol	6	4	0	2	7	4	+3	12
3	Lanus	6	3	0	3	3	7	-4	9
4	Always Ready	6	1	0	5	7	9	-2	3
Group H
1	Independiente del Valle	6	4	1	1	11	6	+5	13
2	Rosario Central	6	4	1	1	9	1	+8	13
3	UCV	6	3	0	3	7	11	-4	9
4	Libertad Asuncion	6	0	0	6	4	13	-9	0

Team stats this season

153 matches this season: 2.11 goals per game, 33% over 2.5, 43% both teams scored. xG 2.28 per match (from 137 matches); 9.0 corners and 4.8 cards per match (from 153 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
UCV	6	1.17	1.83	67%	33%	33%	1.19 / 2.13	8.2	2.8
Independ. Rivadavia	8	2.00	0.88	50%	75%	25%	1.64 / 0.73	8.4	2.3
Juventud	6	1.33	1.33	50%	67%	17%	1.31 / 1.10	8.0	1.7
Carabobo FC	4	1.25	0.75	50%	50%	25%	1.09 / 1.39	10.5	3.0
Club Nacional	6	1.17	1.50	50%	50%	33%	0.76 / 1.46	12.2	2.3
Always Ready	6	1.17	1.50	50%	33%	17%	1.16 / 1.80	10.7	3.0
U. Catolica	8	1.13	1.00	50%	50%	38%	0.97 / 1.06	8.6	2.1
Deportivo La Guaira	6	1.00	2.17	50%	83%	17%	0.59 / 1.91	10.0	2.0
Cusco	6	0.67	2.00	50%	50%	0%	0.82 / 1.86	8.7	2.5
Libertad Asuncion	6	0.67	2.17	50%	50%	0%	0.74 / 1.79	8.5	2.0
Independiente Medellin	9	1.22	1.22	44%	67%	22%	0.89 / 1.19	9.1	2.3
Fluminense	12	1.08	1.00	42%	58%	33%	0.92 / 0.79	7.5	2.4
Deportes Tolima	12	0.92	1.00	42%	17%	50%	1.16 / 1.14	8.8	2.3
Independiente del Valle	10	1.60	1.00	40%	50%	30%	2.01 / 0.88	9.8	1.5
Platense	10	1.10	1.10	40%	60%	20%	1.11 / 0.70	8.1	2.2
Sporting Cristal	10	1.00	1.30	40%	40%	40%	1.27 / 1.18	9.7	2.7
Cruzeiro	8	1.25	0.75	38%	50%	50%	1.42 / 1.07	7.8	3.0
Coquimbo Unido	8	1.13	0.88	38%	38%	38%	1.29 / 0.92	11.4	2.4
Palmeiras	12	1.42	0.92	33%	58%	25%	1.55 / 0.71	10.2	1.5
Bolívar	6	1.00	1.33	33%	67%	17%	0.87 / 1.14	9.3	1.8
Boca Juniors	6	1.00	0.83	33%	33%	17%	1.36 / 0.81	8.8	3.0
Santa Fe	6	1.00	1.17	33%	67%	17%	0.62 / 0.97	9.0	3.0
Universitario	6	0.83	1.00	33%	33%	50%	0.87 / 0.96	11.2	1.7
Junior	6	0.83	1.83	33%	50%	0%	1.19 / 1.44	10.0	2.2
Barcelona SC	10	0.50	1.40	30%	20%	30%	0.61 / 1.62	7.1	3.5
Flamengo	11	1.55	0.45	27%	46%	55%	1.73 / 0.71	9.5	1.3
Rosario Central	8	1.13	0.25	25%	0%	75%	1.73 / 0.96	9.9	2.4
2 de Mayo	4	1.00	0.75	25%	50%	50%	1.12 / 1.72	7.3	2.5
O'Higgins	4	0.75	1.00	25%	25%	50%	1.00 / 1.29	8.5	3.3
Deportivo Tachira FC	4	0.75	0.75	25%	25%	50%	0.91 / 1.50	8.5	2.8
LDU de Quito	10	1.20	0.90	20%	30%	40%	1.20 / 1.02	10.4	2.4
Estudiantes L.P.	12	1.00	0.58	17%	50%	42%	1.17 / 0.80	8.6	3.2
Penarol	6	0.67	1.33	17%	67%	0%	0.93 / 0.89	7.5	2.8
Lanus	6	0.50	1.17	17%	0%	50%	0.93 / 0.90	9.8	2.0
Mirassol	8	1.00	0.63	13%	25%	50%	1.03 / 0.76	10.0	2.9
Corinthians	10	1.00	0.60	0%	30%	50%	—	9.2	1.5
Cerro Porteno	8	0.88	0.50	0%	25%	50%	0.66 / 1.27	8.9	2.8
Botafogo	4	0.75	0.75	0%	25%	25%	1.11 / 0.94	7.0	1.8

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Copa Libertadores predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Copa Libertadores is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Copa Libertadores fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Copa Libertadores betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Copa Libertadores match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit