Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Jupiler Pro League fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.
Across the matches we priced in Jupiler Pro League, the market's average 1X2 margin is 7.62%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Betfair at 1.52%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.
Betfair → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →
Reconstructed from the matches in the TipsAudit dataset — not an official league table. Teams may show a different number of games played, and play-off or play-out stages are not separated. For the official table, use the league's own source.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union St. Gilloise | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 16 |
| 2 | Gent | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 16 |
| 3 | Club Brugge KV | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Charleroi | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | Zulte Waregem | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | Standard Liege | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 | Anderlecht | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Genk | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 9 |
| 9 | SK Beveren | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | St. Truiden | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 8 |
| 11 | Antwerp | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Lommel United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | KVC Westerlo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Cercle Brugge | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
| 16 | KV Mechelen | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2 |
| 17 | OH Leuven | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 0 |
| # | Team | Avg. finish | P(title) | P(relegation) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union St. Gilloise | 1.7 | 54.6% | 0% |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 39.6% | 0% |
| 3 | Gent | 5 | 2.3% | 0% |
| 4 | Charleroi | 5.7 | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 6.2 | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 6 | Genk | 6.3 | 1% | 0.1% |
| 7 | Zulte Waregem | 8.2 | 0.1% | 1% |
| 8 | St. Truiden | 8.5 | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8.9 | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| 10 | Lommel United | 9.5 | 0.1% | 2.3% |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 10.1 | 0% | 3.8% |
| 12 | KVC Westerlo | 10.9 | 0% | 5.6% |
| 13 | Antwerp | 11.6 | 0% | 9.1% |
| 14 | Cercle Brugge | 14 | 0% | 31.9% |
| 15 | KV Mechelen | 14.6 | 0% | 40.5% |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 15.2 | 0% | 52.5% |
| 17 | OH Leuven | 16.3 | 0% | 73.4% |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 16.5 | 0% | 76.9% |
How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.
The sharpest public forecast for Jupiler Pro League is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Jupiler Pro League fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.
We publish an audit, not tips. For each Jupiler Pro League match you get the fair price and an honest value check; every prediction is logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.