Latvia

Latvia 1. Liga predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Latvia 1. Liga fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No match has a fair price yet. Fair prices appear once Pinnacle prices a match, usually about a week before kick-off.

Scheduled matches

Sat · 11:00 UTC Skanste – Metta / LU
Sat · 13:00 UTC Smiltene – Mārupe
Sat · 13:00 UTC Tukums II – Riga FC II
Sat · 13:00 UTC JFK Ventspils – Rēzekne FA
Sat · 13:00 UTC Leevon / PPK – Valmiera / BSS
Sat · 13:00 UTC Riga Mariners – JDFS Alberts
Sat · 13:00 UTC Super Nova 2 – Rīgas FS II
Sat · 11:00 UTC JDFS Alberts – JFK Ventspils
Sat · 11:00 UTC Rēzekne FA – Smiltene
Sat · 11:00 UTC Valmiera / BSS – Skanste

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
25 Oct	Riga FC II – Rīgas FS II	3–0	—
25 Oct	JDFS Alberts – Rēzekne FA	5–0	—
24 Oct	Mārupe – Riga Mariners	1–6	66%
24 Oct	Skanste – Smiltene	1–3	34%
24 Oct	Valmiera / BSS – JFK Ventspils	3–0	—
24 Oct	Metta / LU – Leevon / PPK	2–0	84%
22 Oct	Tukums II – Super Nova 2	0–3	30%
18 Oct	Leevon / PPK – JDFS Alberts	2–2	—
18 Oct	JFK Ventspils – Mārupe	0–0	24%
18 Oct	Rēzekne FA – Rīgas FS II	0–1	—

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Metta / LU	24	20	3	1	98	18	+80	63
2	Valmiera / BSS	24	17	5	2	66	26	+40	56
3	Riga Mariners	24	16	5	3	60	31	+29	53
4	Leevon / PPK	24	16	5	3	49	29	+20	53
5	JDFS Alberts	24	13	5	6	51	33	+18	44
6	Riga FC II	24	9	6	9	39	39	+0	33
7	Mārupe	24	10	3	11	38	40	-2	33
8	Super Nova 2	24	7	8	9	33	36	-3	29
9	Skanste	24	8	2	14	47	51	-4	26
10	Smiltene	24	6	5	13	37	62	-25	23
11	Tukums II	24	5	4	15	31	68	-37	19
12	Rīgas FS II	24	5	3	16	37	68	-31	18
13	JFK Ventspils	24	3	7	14	21	48	-27	16
14	Rēzekne FA	24	1	3	20	17	75	-58	6

Team stats this season

168 matches this season: 3.71 goals per game, 71% over 2.5, 62% both teams scored.

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets
Metta / LU	24	4.08	0.75	83%	50%	50%
Valmiera / BSS	24	2.75	1.08	83%	75%	25%
Rīgas FS II	24	1.54	2.83	79%	67%	13%
Riga Mariners	24	2.50	1.29	75%	67%	29%
Tukums II	24	1.29	2.83	75%	67%	13%
Rēzekne FA	24	0.71	3.13	75%	54%	0%
Leevon / PPK	24	2.04	1.21	71%	67%	29%
Skanste	24	1.96	2.13	71%	63%	8%
Mārupe	24	1.58	1.67	71%	50%	33%
Smiltene	24	1.54	2.58	71%	63%	13%
JDFS Alberts	24	2.13	1.38	67%	71%	25%
Riga FC II	24	1.63	1.63	67%	58%	21%
JFK Ventspils	24	0.88	2.00	54%	50%	17%
Super Nova 2	24	1.38	1.50	50%	67%	21%

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Valmiera / BSS	2	43.6%	0%
2	Leevon / PPK	2.8	22.9%	0%
3	Riga Mariners	3	17.7%	0%
4	Metta / LU	3.5	10.2%	0%
5	JDFS Alberts	3.9	5.6%	0%
6	Skanste	7.6	0%	1.2%
7	Riga FC II	8.1	0%	3.2%
8	Mārupe	8.5	0%	3.4%
9	Rīgas FS II	9.6	0%	9.8%
10	JFK Ventspils	9.8	0%	12.2%
11	Super Nova 2	9.9	0%	12.3%
12	Smiltene	11.2	0%	29.6%
13	Tukums II	11.6	0%	43.3%
14	Rēzekne FA	13.4	0%	85%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Latvia 1. Liga predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Latvia 1. Liga is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Latvia 1. Liga fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Latvia 1. Liga betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Latvia 1. Liga match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit