Latvia

Latvia Virsliga predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Latvia Virsliga fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No match has a fair price yet. Fair prices appear once Pinnacle prices a match, usually about a week before kick-off.

Scheduled matches

Sun · 11:00 UTC FK Liepaja – Super Nova
Sun · 11:00 UTC Auda – FS Jelgava
Sun · 11:00 UTC BFC Daugavpils – Tukums
Sun · 11:00 UTC Rīgas FS – Grobiņa
Sun · 11:00 UTC Ogre United – Riga
Sun · 11:00 UTC Grobiņa – FK Liepaja
Sun · 11:00 UTC Super Nova – BFC Daugavpils
Sun · 11:00 UTC Tukums – Auda
Sun · 11:00 UTC Riga – Rīgas FS
Sun · 11:00 UTC FS Jelgava – Ogre United

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
26 Oct	Grobiņa – Riga	2–5	82%
25 Oct	Super Nova – Rīgas FS	0–3	85%
25 Oct	FS Jelgava – BFC Daugavpils	0–1	59%
25 Oct	Ogre United – Auda	1–4	66%
24 Oct	FK Liepaja – Tukums	0–0	19%
19 Oct	Rīgas FS – Tukums	2–0	92%
19 Oct	BFC Daugavpils – Auda	2–1	33%
18 Oct	Riga – Super Nova	2–1	89%
18 Oct	FK Liepaja – FS Jelgava	3–0	56%
17 Oct	Grobiņa – Ogre United	3–2	53%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Rīgas FS	34	27	5	2	84	24	+60	86
2	Riga	34	25	7	2	95	33	+62	82
3	Auda	34	20	7	7	57	35	+22	67
4	BFC Daugavpils	34	13	9	12	40	37	+3	48
5	FK Liepaja	34	13	8	13	46	46	+0	47
6	Super Nova	34	11	5	18	32	50	-18	38
7	FS Jelgava	34	8	8	18	34	57	-23	32
8	Grobiņa	34	6	11	17	27	61	-34	29
9	Tukums	34	5	10	19	44	65	-21	25
10	Ogre United	34	4	6	24	34	85	-51	18

Team stats this season

170 matches this season: 2.90 goals per game, 55% over 2.5, 54% both teams scored. xG 3.24 per match (from 10 matches); 9.6 corners and 3.7 cards per match (from 10 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Riga	34	2.79	0.97	77%	59%	41%	2.55 / 0.61	8.0	3.0
Ogre United	34	1.00	2.50	68%	65%	6%	—	—	—
Tukums	34	1.29	1.91	65%	74%	6%	0.51 / 2.93	10.7	2.0
Rīgas FS	34	2.47	0.71	59%	44%	53%	—	—	—
FK Liepaja	34	1.35	1.35	59%	53%	24%	—	—	—
Super Nova	34	0.94	1.47	53%	53%	24%	—	—	—
Auda	34	1.68	1.03	50%	56%	38%	—	—	—
BFC Daugavpils	34	1.18	1.09	41%	53%	29%	—	—	—
FS Jelgava	34	1.00	1.68	41%	41%	15%	—	—	—
Grobiņa	34	0.79	1.79	35%	44%	21%	—	—	—

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Riga	1.6	64.7%	0%
2	Rīgas FS	2.5	20.3%	0%
3	Auda	3.6	6.6%	0.3%
4	BFC Daugavpils	3.6	6.3%	0.2%
5	FK Liepaja	4.7	1.9%	1.5%
6	Ogre United	6.8	0.1%	17.6%
7	Super Nova	6.9	0.1%	15.6%
8	Grobiņa	7.9	0%	39.2%
9	Tukums	8.4	0%	53.5%
10	FS Jelgava	9	0%	72.1%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Latvia Virsliga predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Latvia Virsliga is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Latvia Virsliga fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Latvia Virsliga betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Latvia Virsliga match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit