England

League Two predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every League Two fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No match has a fair price yet. Fair prices appear once Pinnacle prices a match, usually about a week before kick-off.

Scheduled matches

Sat · 12:30 UTC Exeter City – Cheltenham
Sat · 15:00 UTC Rotherham – Crawley Town
Sat · 15:00 UTC Bristol Rovers – Chesterfield
Sat · 15:00 UTC Rochdale – York
Sat · 15:00 UTC Walsall – Barnet
Sat · 15:00 UTC Port Vale – Accrington ST
Sat · 15:00 UTC Shrewsbury – Oldham
Sat · 15:00 UTC Swindon Town – Grimsby
Sat · 15:00 UTC Colchester – Gillingham
Sat · 15:00 UTC Crewe – Newport County

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
31 Oct	Salford City – Exeter City	2–1	68%
31 Oct	Tranmere – Cheltenham	3–1	48%
31 Oct	Crewe – Barnet	1–1	27%
31 Oct	Colchester – Walsall	1–3	35%
31 Oct	Accrington ST – Northampton	1–1	30%
31 Oct	Swindon Town – Rotherham	2–1	45%
31 Oct	Shrewsbury – Gillingham	1–2	24%
31 Oct	Oldham – Crawley Town	0–1	19%
31 Oct	Fleetwood Town – Bristol Rovers	3–1	39%
31 Oct	Grimsby – York	5–2	42%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on League Two

Across the matches we priced in League Two, the market's average 1X2 margin is 7.51%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 4.91%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	25	15	+10	31
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	28	18	+10	26
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	21	12	+9	22
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	17	17	+0	22
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	23	25	-2	21
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	24	18	+6	20
7	York	14	5	5	4	24	21	+3	20
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	20	19	+1	20
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	23	17	+6	19
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	24	21	+3	19
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	19	17	+2	19
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	11	9	+2	19
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	15	17	-2	19
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	20	17	+3	18
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	17	22	-5	18
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	18	18	+0	17
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	17	23	-6	16
18	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	10	14	-4	15
19	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	17	26	-9	15
20	Northampton	12	3	5	4	9	9	+0	14
21	Oldham	13	3	3	7	14	19	-5	12
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	18	25	-7	12
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	12	19	-7	12
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	13	21	-8	9

Team stats this season

163 matches this season: 2.67 goals per game, 46% over 2.5, 57% both teams scored. xG 3.08 per match (from 141 matches); 10.0 corners and 4.1 cards per match (from 163 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Barnet	13	2.15	1.38	77%	100%	0%	2.08 / 1.54	11.0	2.1
Cheltenham	14	1.57	1.71	64%	71%	7%	1.19 / 1.75	9.6	2.4
Rochdale	14	1.21	1.86	64%	50%	29%	0.93 / 2.09	9.8	1.9
Salford City	14	1.79	1.07	57%	57%	29%	1.55 / 1.39	10.7	1.7
Grimsby	14	1.71	1.29	57%	57%	29%	2.27 / 1.40	12.1	1.8
Chesterfield	14	1.71	1.50	57%	71%	14%	1.89 / 1.38	8.7	2.1
Gillingham	14	1.43	1.36	57%	57%	29%	1.30 / 1.57	9.2	2.6
Rotherham	14	1.29	1.79	57%	71%	7%	1.61 / 1.58	8.6	2.4
York	14	1.71	1.50	50%	71%	21%	1.71 / 1.58	10.2	1.6
Accrington ST	14	1.64	1.21	50%	64%	29%	1.52 / 1.36	10.0	2.8
Newport County	14	1.43	1.21	50%	57%	29%	1.16 / 1.52	8.6	1.8
Shrewsbury	14	1.21	1.57	50%	50%	21%	1.77 / 1.14	9.7	2.9
Bristol Rovers	14	1.21	1.64	50%	43%	36%	1.81 / 1.44	9.1	2.3
Crawley Town	12	1.08	1.75	50%	67%	8%	1.54 / 1.89	9.8	2.7
Walsall	13	1.62	0.92	46%	54%	46%	1.97 / 1.94	11.8	2.2
Fleetwood Town	14	1.29	1.29	43%	64%	29%	1.65 / 1.52	10.4	2.4
Swindon Town	14	1.00	1.14	43%	43%	21%	1.27 / 1.90	11.6	1.6
Oldham	13	1.08	1.31	39%	39%	31%	1.79 / 1.52	10.7	1.8
Tranmere	14	1.36	1.21	36%	64%	29%	1.28 / 1.57	10.0	2.2
Colchester	13	0.77	1.46	31%	54%	15%	1.42 / 1.66	9.5	1.3
Crewe	14	1.21	1.21	29%	64%	29%	1.32 / 1.64	9.3	1.6
Exeter City	14	0.79	0.64	21%	29%	50%	1.25 / 1.16	9.1	1.6
Port Vale	12	0.83	1.17	17%	33%	33%	1.51 / 1.14	9.8	1.9
Northampton	12	0.75	0.75	0%	33%	33%	0.95 / 1.38	9.7	1.6

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Salford City	1.5	68.7%	0%
2	Barnet	2.6	23.3%	0%
3	Walsall	6.6	2.1%	0.1%
4	Crewe	7.8	1.3%	0.3%
5	Grimsby	7.9	1.1%	0.3%
6	Chesterfield	8	1.2%	0.4%
7	York	9.4	0.6%	0.8%
8	Swindon Town	9.6	0.3%	0.8%
9	Cheltenham	10.3	0.4%	1.1%
10	Fleetwood Town	10.7	0.4%	1.6%
11	Exeter City	11.3	0.3%	2.1%
12	Accrington ST	12.6	0.1%	3.1%
13	Gillingham	12.9	0.1%	3.5%
14	Oldham	13.1	0.1%	4.7%
15	Port Vale	13.4	0%	5.3%
16	Bristol Rovers	15	0%	8.2%
17	Newport County	15.6	0%	10.3%
18	Rochdale	15.7	0%	10.4%
19	Shrewsbury	16	0%	11.7%
20	Tranmere	16.1	0%	12%
21	Colchester	19.9	0%	42.3%
22	Northampton	20.8	0%	53.2%
23	Rotherham	21.2	0%	58.4%
24	Crawley Town	21.8	0%	69.3%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best League Two predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for League Two is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every League Two fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer League Two betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each League Two match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit