Lithuania

Lithuania 1 Lyga predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Lithuania 1 Lyga fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No match has a fair price yet. Fair prices appear once Pinnacle prices a match, usually about a week before kick-off.

Scheduled matches

Fri · 15:00 UTC Ekranas – Tauras
Fri · 15:30 UTC Be1 NFA – Babrungas
Fri · 17:00 UTC Kauno Žalgiris II – Neptūną Klaipėda
Sat · 11:00 UTC Jonava – Žalgiris II
Sat · 12:00 UTC Minija – Atmosfera
Sun · 13:00 UTC Transinvest 2 – Garliava
Sun · 15:00 UTC FA Šiauliai II – Dainava
Sun · 17:00 UTC Hegelmann II – BFA
Wed · 12:00 UTC Tauras – Minija
Wed · 17:00 UTC Be1 NFA – Atmosfera

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
26 Oct	Transinvest 2 – FA Šiauliai II	3–2	50%
25 Oct	Dainava – Kauno Žalgiris II	0–1	21%
25 Oct	Babrungas – Hegelmann II	4–0	78%
24 Oct	Atmosfera – Jonava	3–0	44%
24 Oct	BFA – Minija	2–1	12%
24 Oct	Neptūną Klaipėda – Ekranas	0–2	9%
24 Oct	Tauras – Be1 NFA	1–2	38%
23 Oct	Garliava – Žalgiris II	0–2	38%
17 Oct	FA Šiauliai II – Garliava	2–3	50%
17 Oct	Žalgiris II – Atmosfera	2–3	40%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Lithuania 1 Lyga

Across the matches we priced in Lithuania 1 Lyga, the market's average 1X2 margin is 11.77%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Dafabet at 10.09%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Dafabet → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Babrungas	28	22	4	2	52	13	+39	70
2	Minija	27	22	1	4	71	18	+53	67
3	Be1 NFA	27	18	3	6	49	28	+21	57
4	Žalgiris II	28	15	4	9	44	36	+8	49
5	BFA	28	14	4	10	42	41	+1	46
6	Tauras	27	13	5	9	48	37	+11	44
7	Dainava	28	12	8	8	40	29	+11	44
8	Neptūną Klaipėda	28	14	2	12	33	35	-2	44
9	Atmosfera	27	10	7	10	43	35	+8	37
10	Jonava	28	8	6	14	31	38	-7	30
11	Garliava	28	8	5	15	32	35	-3	29
12	Transinvest 2	28	8	4	16	35	61	-26	28
13	Kauno Žalgiris II	28	8	2	18	27	48	-21	26
14	Hegelmann II	28	8	2	18	35	64	-29	26
15	FA Šiauliai II	28	4	6	18	34	65	-31	18
16	Ekranas	28	5	3	20	29	62	-33	18

Team stats this season

222 matches this season: 2.91 goals per game, 59% over 2.5, 50% both teams scored.

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets
Minija	27	2.63	0.67	82%	44%	48%
Transinvest 2	28	1.25	2.18	71%	54%	11%
Hegelmann II	28	1.25	2.29	71%	54%	11%
Ekranas	28	1.04	2.21	71%	61%	14%
BFA	28	1.50	1.46	64%	50%	25%
FA Šiauliai II	28	1.21	2.32	64%	64%	14%
Be1 NFA	27	1.81	1.04	59%	48%	37%
Tauras	27	1.78	1.37	59%	67%	19%
Žalgiris II	28	1.57	1.29	57%	50%	36%
Jonava	28	1.11	1.36	54%	46%	21%
Kauno Žalgiris II	28	0.96	1.71	54%	39%	18%
Atmosfera	27	1.59	1.30	52%	63%	19%
Dainava	28	1.43	1.04	50%	46%	43%
Neptūną Klaipėda	28	1.18	1.25	50%	39%	29%
Babrungas	28	1.86	0.46	43%	32%	68%
Garliava	28	1.14	1.25	43%	43%	18%

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Žalgiris II	1.6	60.7%	0%
2	BFA	2.6	19%	0%
3	Minija	2.9	15.6%	0%
4	Babrungas	3.9	3.6%	0%
5	Be1 NFA	5.6	1%	0%
6	Neptūną Klaipėda	5.7	0.2%	0%
7	Tauras	6.5	0%	0%
8	Dainava	9.4	0%	1.7%
9	Kauno Žalgiris II	9.7	0%	1.5%
10	Atmosfera	10.5	0%	3.9%
11	Jonava	10.9	0%	5%
12	FA Šiauliai II	12.2	0%	19.1%
13	Transinvest 2	12.7	0%	22.4%
14	Hegelmann II	12.8	0%	21.4%
15	Ekranas	13.5	0%	37.6%
16	Garliava	15.5	0%	87.4%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Lithuania 1 Lyga predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Lithuania 1 Lyga is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Lithuania 1 Lyga fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Lithuania 1 Lyga betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Lithuania 1 Lyga match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit