Lithuania

Lithuania A Lyga predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Lithuania A Lyga fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No match has a fair price yet. Fair prices appear once Pinnacle prices a match, usually about a week before kick-off.

Scheduled matches

Sat · 12:15 UTC Panevėžys – TransINVEST Vilnius
Sat · 15:30 UTC Šiauliai – Džiugas Telšiai
Sat · 16:30 UTC Hegelmann Litauen – Kauno Žalgiris
Sun · 12:15 UTC Suduva Marijampole – Banga
Sun · 12:15 UTC Suduva Marijampole – Džiugas Telšiai
Sun · 12:15 UTC Banga – FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Sun · 12:15 UTC Panevėžys – Šiauliai
Sun · 12:15 UTC TransINVEST Vilnius – Kauno Žalgiris

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
26 Oct	Kauno Žalgiris – FK Zalgiris Vilnius	0–0	26%
25 Oct	Džiugas Telšiai – Panevėžys	2–1	36%
25 Oct	Banga – Šiauliai	0–0	21%
24 Oct	TransINVEST Vilnius – Hegelmann Litauen	2–0	70%
19 Oct	Suduva Marijampole – Kauno Žalgiris	0–1	49%
18 Oct	FK Zalgiris Vilnius – Hegelmann Litauen	4–1	71%
17 Oct	Džiugas Telšiai – TransINVEST Vilnius	3–3	25%
17 Oct	Panevėžys – Banga	2–1	38%
10 Oct	FK Zalgiris Vilnius – Suduva Marijampole	4–0	42%
20 Sep	Šiauliai – Kauno Žalgiris	0–2	79%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Kauno Žalgiris	30	15	10	5	57	20	+37	55
2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	31	15	6	10	49	35	+14	51
3	Suduva Marijampole	30	13	11	6	39	30	+9	50
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	30	14	7	9	48	38	+10	49
5	Banga	30	11	9	10	33	30	+3	42
6	Džiugas Telšiai	30	11	9	10	41	44	-3	42
7	Panevėžys	30	10	5	15	32	46	-14	35
8	Hegelmann Litauen	31	4	14	13	32	54	-22	26
9	Šiauliai	30	3	9	18	24	58	-34	18
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0	0	0	0	+0	0

Team stats this season

152 matches this season: 2.64 goals per game, 53% over 2.5, 47% both teams scored.

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets
TransINVEST Vilnius	32	1.75	1.19	69%	59%	34%
FK Trakai	16	0.31	2.63	63%	25%	13%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	33	1.58	1.12	58%	42%	42%
Panevėžys	31	1.10	1.52	55%	52%	19%
Kauno Žalgiris	32	1.97	0.66	53%	41%	53%
Suduva Marijampole	32	1.47	0.94	50%	50%	41%
Šiauliai	32	0.84	1.84	50%	47%	22%
Džiugas Telšiai	32	1.38	1.38	47%	44%	34%
Banga	32	1.31	0.94	44%	38%	38%
Hegelmann Litauen	32	1.00	1.69	44%	66%	16%

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Kauno Žalgiris	2.8	28.3%	0.2%
2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	3	25.5%	0%
3	Suduva Marijampole	3.1	26.2%	0.4%
4	Džiugas Telšiai	4.5	8.5%	1.2%
5	TransINVEST Vilnius	4.9	4.8%	1.8%
6	Banga	5.2	4.4%	3.2%
7	Panevėžys	6.1	1.8%	7.5%
8	Hegelmann Litauen	6.8	0.5%	13.8%
9	Šiauliai	9.1	0%	81.9%
10	FK Trakai	9.4	0%	90.1%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Lithuania A Lyga predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Lithuania A Lyga is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Lithuania A Lyga fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Lithuania A Lyga betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Lithuania A Lyga match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit