Poland

Poland I Liga predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Poland I Liga fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account)

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Fri · 19:30 UTC	Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiStal Mielec	45% fair 2.20	25% fair 3.94	29% fair 3.42	Not checked yet

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
26 Oct	Warta Poznań – ŁKS Łódź	0–1	35%
25 Oct	Podbeskidzie – Stal Rzeszów	2–1	48%
25 Oct	Ruch Chorzów – Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	2–0	60%
25 Oct	Odra Opole – Pogoń Siedlce	0–1	25%
24 Oct	Puszcza Niepołomice – Lechia Gdansk	2–1	33%
24 Oct	Unia Skierniewice – Polonia Bytom	1–2	39%
24 Oct	Stal Mielec – Chrobry Głogów	0–0	27%
24 Oct	Arka Gdynia – Nieciecza	3–1	44%
23 Oct	Polonia Warszawa – Miedz Legnica	1–1	24%
19 Oct	Nieciecza – Puszcza Niepołomice	2–0	54%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Poland I Liga

Across the matches we priced in Poland I Liga, the market's average 1X2 margin is 10.18%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 5.31%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	12	6	3	3	19	11	+8	21
2	Ruch Chorzów	12	6	3	3	16	11	+5	21
3	Polonia Warszawa	12	6	3	3	19	14	+5	21
4	ŁKS Łódź	12	6	3	3	15	11	+4	21
5	Nieciecza	12	6	2	4	19	17	+2	20
6	Lechia Gdansk	12	6	1	5	22	19	+3	19
7	Miedz Legnica	12	5	3	4	18	11	+7	18
8	Warta Poznań	12	6	0	6	19	16	+3	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	4	6	2	20	20	+0	18
10	Stal Rzeszów	12	5	2	5	16	22	-6	17
11	Pogoń Siedlce	12	4	3	5	14	15	-1	15
12	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	16	16	+0	14
13	Podbeskidzie	12	2	8	2	15	16	-1	14
14	Chrobry Głogów	12	3	4	5	13	15	-2	13
15	Stal Mielec	12	3	4	5	16	27	-11	13
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	12	4	0	8	13	17	-4	12
17	Odra Opole	12	3	3	6	8	13	-5	12
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	3	2	7	13	20	-7	11

Team stats this season

106 matches this season: 2.67 goals per game, 51% over 2.5, 54% both teams scored.

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets
Lechia Gdansk	12	1.83	1.58	83%	67%	8%
Nieciecza	12	1.58	1.42	75%	75%	25%
Stal Mielec	12	1.33	2.25	67%	67%	8%
Warta Poznań	11	1.45	1.09	64%	46%	36%
Polonia Bytom	11	1.45	1.55	64%	73%	27%
Arka Gdynia	11	1.36	1.45	64%	55%	18%
Stal Rzeszów	12	1.33	1.83	58%	67%	17%
Unia Skierniewice	12	1.08	1.67	58%	58%	17%
Polonia Warszawa	12	1.58	1.17	50%	67%	25%
Puszcza Niepołomice	12	1.08	1.42	50%	42%	8%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	12	1.58	0.92	42%	33%	50%
Miedz Legnica	12	1.50	0.92	42%	50%	33%
ŁKS Łódź	12	1.25	0.92	42%	50%	33%
Pogoń Siedlce	12	1.17	1.25	42%	50%	33%
Podbeskidzie	12	1.25	1.33	33%	67%	17%
Chrobry Głogów	12	1.08	1.25	33%	42%	25%
Odra Opole	11	0.73	1.09	27%	36%	27%
Ruch Chorzów	12	1.33	0.92	25%	25%	50%

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Ruch Chorzów	4.2	23.3%	0.3%
2	Polonia Warszawa	4.7	18.9%	0.8%
3	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	5.7	11.7%	1.3%
4	ŁKS Łódź	5.8	12.5%	1.6%
5	Warta Poznań	7	7.2%	2.7%
6	Miedz Legnica	7	7%	2.7%
7	Nieciecza	7.3	5.2%	2.8%
8	Polonia Bytom	7.6	5.2%	3.6%
9	Lechia Gdansk	7.7	4.8%	3.6%
10	Stal Rzeszów	10	1.5%	10.7%
11	Podbeskidzie	10.5	1.3%	13.7%
12	Chrobry Głogów	11.2	0.6%	18.3%
13	Arka Gdynia	12.6	0.3%	28.3%
14	Pogoń Siedlce	13.1	0.2%	31.6%
15	Odra Opole	13.7	0.1%	38.4%
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	13.8	0.1%	39.5%
17	Unia Skierniewice	14.5	0%	48.5%
18	Stal Mielec	14.7	0%	51.6%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Poland I Liga predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Poland I Liga is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Poland I Liga fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Poland I Liga betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Poland I Liga match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit