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Primera B Metropolitana predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Primera B Metropolitana fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No match has a fair price yet. Fair prices appear once Pinnacle prices a match, usually about a week before kick-off.

Scheduled matches

  • Flandria – Deportivo Armenio
  • Defensores Unidos – Deportivo Laferrere
  • Dock Sud – Argentino de Merlo
  • Deportivo Camioneros – Excursionistas
  • Comunicaciones – Talleres Remedios
  • Argentino Quilmes – Brown DE Adrogue
  • Villa San Carlos – Real Pilar
  • Deportivo Merlo – Arsenal Sarandi
  • San Martín Burzaco – UAI Urquiza
  • Sportivo Italiano – Villa Dalmine

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

DateMatchScoreMarket gave this result
Brown DE Adrogue – Defensores Unidos 0–1 20%
UAI Urquiza – Villa San Carlos 2–0 58%
Talleres Remedios – Dock Sud 4–0 61%
Real Pilar – Liniers 2–1 50%
Deportivo Armenio – Argentino Quilmes 0–1 20%
Ituzaingó – Flandria 1–3 60%
Excursionistas – Sportivo Italiano 4–0 72%
Argentino de Merlo – Deportivo Merlo 1–0 52%
Deportivo Laferrere – Comunicaciones 1–0 43%
Villa Dalmine – San Martín Burzaco 1–0 54%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Primera B Metropolitana

Across the matches we priced in Primera B Metropolitana, the market's average 1X2 margin is 11.52%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Dafabet at 7.05%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Dafabet → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of . We read it again after matches finish.

# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Excursionistas 41 24 9 8 68 31 +37 81
2 Arsenal Sarandi 41 21 13 7 55 27 +28 76
3 Talleres Remedios 41 20 11 10 46 26 +20 71
4 Sportivo Italiano 41 19 12 10 47 33 +14 69
5 Villa Dalmine 41 18 14 9 40 27 +13 68
6 Deportivo Camioneros 41 18 13 10 48 34 +14 67
7 Real Pilar 41 18 11 12 44 40 +4 65
8 Deportivo Armenio 41 17 11 13 42 39 +3 62
9 Deportivo Laferrere 41 15 13 13 50 52 -2 58
10 Comunicaciones 41 14 15 12 39 35 +4 57
11 San Martín Burzaco 41 12 15 14 41 46 -5 51
12 Villa San Carlos 41 12 14 15 40 45 -5 50
13 Flandria 41 13 9 19 39 49 -10 48
14 Deportivo Merlo 41 11 15 15 39 54 -15 48
15 Argentino de Merlo 41 12 11 18 37 44 -7 47
16 Argentino Quilmes 41 10 17 14 33 40 -7 47
17 Dock Sud 41 11 14 16 41 49 -8 47
18 Defensores Unidos 41 10 15 16 34 40 -6 45
19 Liniers 41 10 15 16 34 43 -9 45
20 Brown DE Adrogue 41 9 16 16 25 38 -13 43
21 UAI Urquiza 41 7 21 13 25 36 -11 42
22 Ituzaingó 41 1 14 26 28 67 -39 17

Team stats this season

451 matches this season: 1.98 goals per game, 32% over 2.5, 40% both teams scored.

TeamMPGFGA Over 2.5BTTSClean sheets
Ituzaingó 410.681.63 44%49%22%
Excursionistas 411.660.76 42%42%44%
Deportivo Merlo 410.951.32 42%51%27%
Deportivo Laferrere 411.221.27 39%56%24%
Deportivo Camioneros 411.170.83 39%42%51%
Sportivo Italiano 411.150.80 39%42%42%
Deportivo Armenio 411.020.95 39%44%44%
Dock Sud 411.001.20 39%44%32%
Arsenal Sarandi 411.340.66 37%39%49%
Real Pilar 411.070.98 37%49%32%
Flandria 410.951.20 37%46%34%
San Martín Burzaco 411.001.12 34%42%37%
Argentino de Merlo 410.901.07 32%37%29%
Villa San Carlos 410.981.10 29%37%29%
Comunicaciones 410.950.85 27%34%46%
Talleres Remedios 411.120.63 24%29%56%
Villa Dalmine 410.980.66 24%29%51%
Liniers 410.831.05 24%46%27%
Argentino Quilmes 410.800.98 24%34%42%
Defensores Unidos 410.830.98 22%39%32%
UAI Urquiza 410.610.88 20%29%46%
Brown DE Adrogue 410.610.93 20%29%44%

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

# Team Avg. finish P(title) P(relegation)
1 Excursionistas 2.9 36.1% 0%
2 Arsenal Sarandi 3.7 20.4% 0%
3 Sportivo Italiano 4.1 16.9% 0%
4 Deportivo Armenio 5 8.5% 0%
5 Real Pilar 5.5 5.3% 0%
6 Deportivo Camioneros 6 5.2% 0%
7 Villa San Carlos 6.9 3.2% 0%
8 Talleres Remedios 6.9 2.6% 0%
9 Villa Dalmine 8.1 1% 0%
10 Comunicaciones 8.4 0.6% 0%
11 Dock Sud 11.2 0.1% 0%
12 Deportivo Laferrere 12.1 0% 0.2%
13 Defensores Unidos 14.5 0% 2%
14 Flandria 14.7 0% 3.3%
15 San Martín Burzaco 15.1 0% 3.5%
16 Brown DE Adrogue 15.7 0% 6.7%
17 Argentino Quilmes 16.1 0% 7.6%
18 Liniers 17 0% 14.5%
19 Argentino de Merlo 17.7 0% 23.7%
20 Deportivo Merlo 19.2 0% 55.8%
21 UAI Urquiza 20.4 0% 83.2%
22 Ituzaingó 21.8 0% 99.4%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Primera B Metropolitana predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Primera B Metropolitana is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Primera B Metropolitana fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Primera B Metropolitana betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Primera B Metropolitana match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

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