Primera C Predictions — Fair Odds & Value Bets

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benchmark Pinnacle · Edge Score flags real value

Primera C Sat · 20:00 UTC

Mercedes — Deportivo Español

Market probability (margin removed)

expired we flagged +4.7% on 2 — the market has since corrected it

Standings — computed from our own settled results · 2026 season

Reconstructed from the matches in the TipsAudit dataset — not an official league table. Teams may show a different number of games played, and play-off or play-out stages are not separated. For the official table, use the league's own source.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lujan	27	14	7	6	39	22	+17	49
2	Canuelas	27	13	9	5	32	20	+12	48
3	Sacachispas	27	13	7	7	32	20	+12	46
4	Lugano	27	11	10	6	31	23	+8	43
5	Leones de Rosario	27	11	10	6	26	22	+4	43
6	Deportivo Español	28	9	15	4	21	15	+6	42
7	Berazategui	27	10	11	6	29	20	+9	41
8	Centro Español	27	10	10	7	34	24	+10	40
9	Central Cordoba	27	10	9	8	26	21	+5	39
10	Estrella Del Sur	27	10	9	8	27	26	+1	39
11	Juventud Unida	27	10	8	9	32	27	+5	38
12	Sportivo Barracas	27	11	5	11	31	26	+5	38
13	Puerto Nuevo	27	9	11	7	25	25	+0	38
14	Victoriano Arenas	27	8	13	6	21	16	+5	37
15	Mercedes	28	9	10	9	27	23	+4	37
16	General Lamadrid	27	9	10	8	22	25	-3	37
17	Atletico Atlas	27	9	9	9	22	22	+0	36
18	Central Ballester	27	9	7	11	26	27	-1	34
19	Yupanqui	27	8	9	10	31	31	+0	33
20	El Porvenir	27	6	15	6	22	25	-3	33
21	Defensores de Cambaceres	27	8	8	11	24	28	-4	32
22	Fénix	27	6	9	12	19	27	-8	27
23	JJ Urquiza	27	5	12	10	14	23	-9	27
24	Deportivo Paraguayo	27	6	9	12	18	32	-14	27
25	Leandro N. Alem	27	7	6	14	27	49	-22	27
26	Claypole	27	6	8	13	19	35	-16	26
27	Argentino Rosario	27	3	14	10	25	33	-8	23
28	Deportivo Muñiz	27	4	10	13	17	32	-15	22

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Lujan	3.1	29.7%	0%
2	Central Cordoba	3.2	28.4%	0%
3	Canuelas	3.7	20.5%	0%
4	Lugano	5.3	9.3%	0%
5	Sacachispas	7.2	3%	0%
6	Deportivo Español	7.3	3.6%	0%
7	Atletico Atlas	8.5	2%	0%
8	Juventud Unida	8.7	1.6%	0%
9	Central Ballester	10.6	1.2%	0%
10	Leones de Rosario	11.7	0.3%	0%
11	Estrella Del Sur	12.1	0.2%	0.2%
12	Puerto Nuevo	13.1	0.1%	0.1%
13	Mercedes	13.3	0.1%	0.3%
14	Berazategui	14.5	0%	1.2%
15	JJ Urquiza	14.6	0%	1%
16	Centro Español	16.5	0%	2.5%
17	Fénix	17.5	0%	2.6%
18	Defensores de Cambaceres	17.6	0%	3.6%
19	Victoriano Arenas	18.4	0%	5.3%
20	Sportivo Barracas	19	0%	7.9%
21	Deportivo Paraguayo	19.1	0%	5.8%
22	General Lamadrid	19.4	0%	8.9%
23	El Porvenir	21	0%	15.9%
24	Deportivo Muñiz	21.2	0%	21.1%
25	Claypole	23.5	0%	39.5%
26	Yupanqui	24.2	0%	45.3%
27	Argentino Rosario	24.4	0%	47.4%
28	Leandro N. Alem	27.3	0%	91.5%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

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