Scotland

Scottish Premiership predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Scottish Premiership fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated between 17:33 UTC and 17:34 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Wed · 19:45 UTC	CelticDundee Utd	77% 1.27 fair 1.30	15% 6.25 fair 6.61	8% 10.00 fair 12.82	Value expired
Wed · 19:45 UTC	ST MirrenHibernian	28% 3.40 fair 3.53	25% 3.85 fair 3.98	47% 2.10 fair 2.15	No value
Wed · 19:45 UTC	AberdeenFalkirk	46% 2.05 fair 2.16	27% 3.75 fair 3.77	27% 3.50 fair 3.69	No value
Wed · 19:45 UTC	DundeeKilmarnock	50% 1.96 fair 2.01	24% 3.90 fair 4.13	26% 3.60 fair 3.85	No value
Wed · 19:45 UTC	ST JohnstoneMotherwell	38% 2.55 fair 2.60	28% 3.60 fair 3.64	34% 2.80 fair 2.94	Value expired
Wed · 20:00 UTC	Heart Of MidlothianRangers	29% 3.25 fair 3.47	26% 3.85 fair 3.92	46% 2.10 fair 2.19	No value

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
25 Oct	Motherwell – Heart Of Midlothian	0–2	51%
25 Oct	Hibernian – Celtic	1–2	59%
24 Oct	Falkirk – Kilmarnock	3–0	50%
24 Oct	Dundee Utd – Aberdeen	3–2	49%
24 Oct	Rangers – ST Johnstone	4–0	82%
24 Oct	ST Mirren – Dundee	2–1	41%
18 Oct	Celtic – Heart Of Midlothian	7–1	58%
17 Oct	Dundee – Rangers	2–2	18%
17 Oct	ST Johnstone – Dundee Utd	1–1	27%
17 Oct	Aberdeen – ST Mirren	3–1	56%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Scottish Premiership

Across the matches we priced in Scottish Premiership, the market's average 1X2 margin is 7.56%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 4.07%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Celtic	10	9	0	1	25	6	+19	27
2	Rangers	10	7	2	1	17	7	+10	23
3	Heart Of Midlothian	10	6	1	3	22	15	+7	19
4	Dundee Utd	10	4	3	3	14	14	+0	15
5	Dundee	10	4	2	4	14	12	+2	14
6	ST Mirren	10	4	1	5	11	18	-7	13
7	Falkirk	10	3	3	4	12	12	+0	12
8	ST Johnstone	10	3	3	4	11	15	-4	12
9	Aberdeen	10	3	2	5	12	13	-1	11
10	Motherwell	10	2	2	6	11	18	-7	8
11	Kilmarnock	10	2	2	6	10	23	-13	8
12	Hibernian	10	2	1	7	10	16	-6	7

Top scorers — 2026/27 · updated 27 Oct 2026

#	Player	Team	Goals	Assists
1	C. Durán	Celtic	6	5
1	B. Nygren	Celtic	6	4
1	J. Fowler	ST Johnstone	6	1
4	R. Naderi	Rangers	5	2
4	J. Murrell	Falkirk	5	0

Top scorers, assists and cards →

Team stats this season

60 matches this season: 2.82 goals per game, 58% over 2.5, 55% both teams scored. xG 3.11 per match (from 59 matches); 11.4 corners and 3.8 cards per match (from 60 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Heart Of Midlothian	10	2.20	1.50	80%	70%	30%	1.72 / 1.52	10.5	1.9
Hibernian	10	1.00	1.60	70%	80%	0%	1.57 / 1.48	11.8	1.5
Celtic	10	2.50	0.60	60%	50%	40%	2.80 / 1.02	12.3	1.6
Dundee	10	1.40	1.20	60%	70%	20%	1.37 / 1.62	11.2	1.6
Falkirk	10	1.20	1.20	60%	70%	20%	1.12 / 1.64	11.3	1.7
ST Mirren	10	1.10	1.80	60%	40%	30%	1.33 / 1.83	10.7	2.6
Motherwell	10	1.10	1.80	60%	40%	20%	1.46 / 1.67	10.8	1.5
Kilmarnock	10	1.00	2.30	60%	50%	20%	1.10 / 2.22	11.7	2.2
Rangers	10	1.70	0.70	50%	50%	50%	2.21 / 1.06	11.9	1.6
Dundee Utd	10	1.40	1.40	50%	40%	30%	1.53 / 1.38	11.9	2.4
Aberdeen	10	1.20	1.30	50%	40%	20%	1.28 / 1.36	12.0	2.5
ST Johnstone	10	1.10	1.50	40%	60%	10%	1.24 / 1.79	10.9	1.7

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Celtic	1.2	80.9%	0%
2	Rangers	2.1	16.4%	0%
3	Heart Of Midlothian	3.1	2.5%	0%
4	Dundee Utd	5.7	0.1%	3%
5	Dundee	6.5	0%	6.3%
6	Falkirk	6.9	0%	9.1%
7	ST Mirren	7.9	0%	17.9%
8	Motherwell	8.2	0%	22.4%
9	Aberdeen	8.8	0%	29.9%
10	Hibernian	8.9	0%	31.4%
11	ST Johnstone	8.9	0%	31.7%
12	Kilmarnock	9.8	0%	48.1%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Scottish Premiership predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Scottish Premiership is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Scottish Premiership fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Scottish Premiership betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Scottish Premiership match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit