Italy

Serie A predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Serie A fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated between 19:33 UTC and 19:34 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Fri · 19:45 UTC	VeneziaUdinese	45% 2.23 fair 2.23	26% 3.79 fair 3.86	29% 3.31 fair 3.42	Value expired
Sat · 14:00 UTC	CagliariFrosinone	37% 2.85 fair 2.73	26% 3.83 fair 3.90	38% 2.57 fair 2.65	Not re-checked
Sat · 14:00 UTC	TorinoLecce	54% 1.87 fair 1.86	25% 3.85 fair 3.95	21% 4.80 fair 4.81	Not re-checked
Sat · 17:00 UTC	ParmaBologna	20% 4.80 fair 4.89	27% 3.69 fair 3.75	53% 1.93 fair 1.89	Not re-checked
Sat · 19:45 UTC	AS RomaSassuolo	74% 1.35 fair 1.35	15% 6.20 fair 6.56	11% 8.90 fair 9.50	Value expired
Sun · 11:30 UTC	NapoliLazio	45% 2.20 fair 2.23	26% 3.85 fair 3.92	30% 3.45 fair 3.37	No value
Sun · 14:00 UTC	GenoaAC Milan	20% 4.88 fair 4.92	27% 3.73 fair 3.75	53% 1.87 fair 1.89	Value expired
Sun · 14:00 UTC	MonzaAtalanta	28% 3.45 fair 3.52	25% 4.01 fair 4.07	47% 2.10 fair 2.13	No value
Sun · 17:00 UTC	InterComo	54% 1.83 fair 1.84	22% 4.32 fair 4.46	23% 4.30 fair 4.28	Value expired
Sun · 19:45 UTC	FiorentinaJuventus	27% 4.00 fair 3.77	27% 3.79 fair 3.76	47% 2.05 fair 2.13	No value

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
02 Nov	Atalanta – Parma	0–3	13%
02 Nov	Sassuolo – Fiorentina	2–4	43%
01 Nov	Juventus – Napoli	2–0	45%
01 Nov	Lecce – Genoa	1–2	39%
01 Nov	Frosinone – Torino	2–0	45%
01 Nov	Lazio – Cagliari	2–1	64%
01 Nov	Como – Venezia	1–0	76%
31 Oct	AC Milan – Inter	3–1	25%
31 Oct	Udinese – AS Roma	2–5	63%
31 Oct	Bologna – Monza	2–1	59%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Serie A

Across the matches we priced in Serie A, the market's average 1X2 margin is 6.18%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is 1xBet at 2.84%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

1xBet → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 21:58 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lazio	10	9	1	0	24	8	+16	28
2	Inter	10	8	1	1	26	13	+13	25
3	AS Roma	10	7	3	0	28	10	+18	24
4	Como	10	7	2	1	18	8	+10	23
5	AC Milan	10	6	3	1	21	12	+9	21
6	Frosinone	10	6	2	2	24	14	+10	20
7	Juventus	10	5	2	3	13	10	+3	17
8	Napoli	10	4	2	4	17	13	+4	14
9	Bologna	10	4	2	4	14	13	+1	14
10	Torino	10	4	1	5	14	16	-2	13
11	Genoa	10	4	1	5	10	14	-4	13
12	Cagliari	10	4	1	5	9	15	-6	13
13	Atalanta	9	3	2	4	16	17	-1	11
14	Lecce	10	3	0	7	11	21	-10	9
15	Fiorentina	10	2	2	6	15	23	-8	8
16	Sassuolo	10	2	2	6	16	26	-10	8
17	Monza	10	2	1	7	17	24	-7	7
18	Parma	9	1	2	6	5	15	-10	5
19	Udinese	10	1	2	7	11	23	-12	5
20	Venezia	10	1	0	9	6	20	-14	3

Top scorers — 2026/27 · updated 2 Nov 2026

#	Player	Team	Goals	Assists
1	Gustavo Varela	Monza	9	1
2	D. Malen	AS Roma	8	1
2	A. Raimondo	Frosinone	8	0
4	N. Krstović	Atalanta	6	2
5	A. Rabiot	AC Milan	5	3

Top scorers, assists and cards →

Team stats this season

98 matches this season: 3.15 goals per game, 60% over 2.5, 58% both teams scored. xG 3.05 per match (from 85 matches); 9.6 corners and 3.3 cards per match (from 98 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Monza	10	1.70	2.40	90%	90%	10%	1.66 / 1.42	8.3	1.8
Fiorentina	9	1.22	2.33	89%	78%	0%	1.59 / 1.57	9.0	2.2
Inter	10	2.60	1.30	80%	70%	30%	2.56 / 0.84	9.5	1.4
Atalanta	9	1.78	1.89	78%	78%	11%	1.55 / 1.86	9.6	1.2
Sassuolo	9	1.56	2.44	78%	89%	0%	1.44 / 1.70	9.7	1.4
AS Roma	10	2.80	1.00	70%	50%	50%	2.31 / 1.38	9.3	1.9
Lazio	10	2.40	0.80	70%	60%	40%	1.63 / 1.17	8.9	1.6
Torino	10	1.40	1.60	70%	70%	10%	1.23 / 1.56	8.4	1.1
Lecce	10	1.10	2.10	70%	40%	20%	1.21 / 1.99	8.6	2.0
Frosinone	10	2.40	1.40	60%	50%	30%	1.77 / 2.16	13.0	1.7
AC Milan	10	2.10	1.20	60%	70%	30%	1.72 / 1.37	7.1	1.7
Udinese	10	1.10	2.30	60%	60%	10%	1.26 / 2.19	9.6	1.7
Parma	9	0.56	1.67	56%	44%	11%	0.84 / 1.69	8.9	1.4
Como	10	1.80	0.80	50%	60%	30%	1.92 / 1.26	11.3	1.2
Napoli	10	1.70	1.30	50%	50%	30%	2.03 / 1.07	10.9	0.9
Bologna	10	1.40	1.30	50%	60%	10%	1.54 / 1.34	9.2	2.1
Genoa	10	1.00	1.40	40%	50%	20%	0.94 / 1.41	10.0	2.3
Cagliari	10	0.90	1.50	40%	40%	30%	1.32 / 1.64	9.8	1.6
Venezia	10	0.60	2.00	30%	30%	10%	1.33 / 2.01	9.2	2.2
Juventus	10	1.30	1.00	20%	30%	50%	1.38 / 0.61	11.9	1.3

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Inter	1.9	53.5%	0%
2	AS Roma	3	19.5%	0%
3	Lazio	3.4	15%	0%
4	Como	4.3	7%	0%
5	AC Milan	5	3.2%	0%
6	Juventus	6.3	1%	0%
7	Napoli	7.4	0.2%	0%
8	Frosinone	7.4	0.4%	0%
9	Bologna	9.1	0.1%	0.2%
10	Atalanta	9.5	0%	0.3%
11	Genoa	12.8	0%	4.9%
12	Torino	13	0%	5.9%
13	Cagliari	13.1	0%	5.4%
14	Sassuolo	13.9	0%	11.4%
15	Fiorentina	14.3	0%	15%
16	Monza	16.5	0%	39.2%
17	Lecce	16.8	0%	43.6%
18	Venezia	17.2	0%	52.8%
19	Parma	17.6	0%	59.8%
20	Udinese	17.7	0%	61.5%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Serie A predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Serie A is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Serie A fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Serie A betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Serie A match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit