Slovenia

Slovenia PrvaLiga predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Slovenia PrvaLiga fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account)

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Fri · 16:30 UTC	NaftaOlimpija Ljubljana	22% fair 4.62	25% fair 4.07	54% fair 1.86	Not checked yet

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
02 Nov	Bravo – Koper	1–2	46%
01 Nov	Celje – Nafta	4–0	68%
01 Nov	Mura – Brinje-Grosuplje	0–0	30%
31 Oct	Aluminij – Radomlje	5–0	46%
31 Oct	Maribor – Olimpija Ljubljana	0–1	30%
29 Oct	Brinje-Grosuplje – Bravo	0–0	28%
28 Oct	Olimpija Ljubljana – Celje	1–1	27%
28 Oct	Nafta – Aluminij	0–0	25%
27 Oct	Koper – Maribor	4–0	36%
27 Oct	Radomlje – Mura	1–1	27%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Slovenia PrvaLiga

Across the matches we priced in Slovenia PrvaLiga, the market's average 1X2 margin is 10.00%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 5.05%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 18:58 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Koper	14	8	4	2	25	12	+13	28
2	Maribor	14	6	6	2	21	14	+7	24
3	Olimpija Ljubljana	14	6	4	4	16	12	+4	22
4	Celje	13	5	5	3	17	12	+5	20
5	Bravo	14	5	5	4	15	15	+0	20
6	Nafta	14	5	3	6	18	20	-2	18
7	Aluminij	14	4	5	5	21	13	+8	17
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	14	3	4	7	15	25	-10	13
9	Mura	14	2	7	5	14	25	-11	13
10	Radomlje	13	1	5	7	15	29	-14	8

Team stats this season

66 matches this season: 2.55 goals per game, 47% over 2.5, 47% both teams scored.

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets
Radomlje	13	1.15	2.23	77%	69%	8%
Brinje-Grosuplje	14	1.07	1.79	64%	57%	21%
Nafta	13	1.38	1.38	54%	46%	31%
Maribor	14	1.50	1.00	50%	50%	36%
Bravo	13	1.08	1.00	46%	46%	39%
Koper	12	1.75	0.92	42%	33%	58%
Mura	13	0.92	1.77	39%	54%	31%
Aluminij	14	1.50	0.93	36%	36%	29%
Celje	12	1.25	0.83	33%	42%	50%
Olimpija Ljubljana	14	1.14	0.86	29%	36%	43%

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Koper	1.7	60.7%	0%
2	Maribor	3.2	11%	0.1%
3	Bravo	3.4	10.8%	0.1%
4	Celje	3.5	10.3%	0.1%
5	Olimpija Ljubljana	3.8	7.2%	0.2%
6	Nafta	6.9	0%	14.4%
7	Aluminij	7	0%	14.8%
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	7.6	0%	27.3%
9	Mura	8.6	0%	62.4%
10	Radomlje	9.3	0%	80.5%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Slovenia PrvaLiga predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Slovenia PrvaLiga is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Slovenia PrvaLiga fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Slovenia PrvaLiga betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Slovenia PrvaLiga match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit