InternationalUEFA Europa League predictions
Fair, margin-free probabilities for every UEFA Europa League fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.
Upcoming audited matches
best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times
How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely
| Time | Match | 1 | X | 2 | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43% 2.30 fair 2.34 | 26% 3.67 fair 3.79 | 31% 3.25 fair 3.23 +0.6% | Micro-edge | ||
| 50% 2.02 fair 2.00 +0.8% | 24% 4.00 fair 4.25 | 27% 3.73 fair 3.77 | Micro-edge | ||
| 33% 3.00 fair 3.01 | 25% 3.88 fair 4.06 | 42% 2.35 fair 2.37 | Value expired | ||
| 53% 1.93 fair 1.89 +2.2% | 23% 4.00 fair 4.28 | 24% 4.00 fair 4.22 | Value flag | ||
| 54% 1.82 fair 1.87 | 23% 4.20 fair 4.26 | 23% 4.30 fair 4.37 | Value expired | ||
| 48% 2.06 fair 2.06 | 26% 3.75 fair 3.81 | 25% 3.80 fair 3.95 | Value expired | ||
| 16% 6.25 fair 6.42 | 20% 4.62 fair 4.95 | 64% 1.56 fair 1.56 | Value expired | ||
| 44% 2.24 fair 2.29 | 26% 3.85 fair 3.89 | 31% 3.30 fair 3.26 +1.1% | Micro-edge | ||
| 31% 3.25 fair 3.23 +0.5% | 24% 3.89 fair 4.14 | 45% 2.23 fair 2.23 | Micro-edge | ||
| 64% 1.60 fair 1.57 +1.8% | 20% 4.56 fair 4.99 | 16% 6.00 fair 6.14 | Value flag | ||
| 85% 1.22 fair 1.17 +4.0% | 10% 9.00 fair 10.09 | 5% 19.50 fair 20.87 | Strong value | ||
| 54% 1.81 fair 1.84 | 24% 4.00 fair 4.20 | 22% 4.90 fair 4.57 | No value | ||
| 66% 1.48 fair 1.51 | 20% 4.82 fair 5.07 | 14% 7.00 fair 7.18 | Value expired | ||
| 45% 2.18 fair 2.23 | 26% 3.75 fair 3.84 | 29% 3.35 fair 3.43 | No value |
Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off
| Date | Match | Score | Market gave this result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace | 2–2 | 25% | |
| Celtic – Celta Vigo | 1–2 | 37% | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim – Lyon | 3–0 | 58% | |
| Bournemouth – AC Milan | 3–0 | 54% | |
| Omonia Nicosia – Benfica | 1–4 | 77% | |
| Olympiakos Piraeus – Sparta Praha | 1–0 | 66% | |
| Jagiellonia – Anderlecht | 0–3 | 44% | |
| Lillestrom – Real Sociedad | 0–6 | 71% | |
| Celje – Red Bull Salzburg | 2–2 | 22% | |
| Plzen – Levski Sofia | 1–2 | 19% |
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.
Bookmaker margins on UEFA Europa League
Across the matches we priced in UEFA Europa League, the market's average 1X2 margin is 6.48%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Unibet (NL) at 3.39%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.
Unibet (NL) → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →
Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table
Official table from API-Football, as of . We read it again after matches finish.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 9 |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 7 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 4 |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 3 |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
Team stats this season
134 matches this season: 2.86 goals per game, 60% over 2.5, 46% both teams scored. xG 3.15 per match (from 42 matches); 9.7 corners and 4.2 cards per match (from 95 matches with statistics).
| Team | MP | GF | GA | Over 2.5 | BTTS | Clean sheets | xG for / against | Corners | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Juventus |
3 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 100% | 67% | 33% | — | 7.3 | 1.3 |
 Bournemouth |
3 | 2.67 | 0.33 | 100% | 33% | 67% | — | 11.0 | 2.7 |
 Crystal Palace |
3 | 2.67 | 1.67 | 100% | 67% | 33% | — | 7.7 | 1.3 |
 FC Thun |
4 | 1.75 | 3.00 | 100% | 50% | 25% | — | 9.0 | 2.0 |
 Lyon |
3 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 100% | 67% | 0% | 1.43 / 1.73 | 12.7 | 1.3 |
 Torreense |
3 | 1.33 | 2.33 | 100% | 100% | 0% | — | 11.7 | 2.3 |
 Plzen |
5 | 1.20 | 2.20 | 100% | 60% | 0% | — | 6.4 | 1.8 |
 Celtic |
3 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 100% | 100% | 0% | — | 12.0 | 1.3 |
 Jagiellonia |
7 | 1.86 | 1.29 | 86% | 71% | 14% | 0.97 / 1.54 | 8.7 | 1.8 |
 Benfica |
9 | 3.22 | 0.89 | 78% | 78% | 22% | 2.31 / 1.08 | 10.3 | 2.7 |
 Maccabi Tel Aviv |
4 | 2.25 | 1.00 | 75% | 25% | 50% | — | — | — |
 Ferencvarosi TC |
11 | 2.27 | 0.73 | 73% | 64% | 36% | — | 11.7 | 2.4 |
 Lech Poznan |
7 | 2.29 | 1.57 | 71% | 29% | 43% | — | 9.7 | 1.4 |
 Union St. Gilloise |
3 | 2.67 | 0.33 | 67% | 33% | 67% | — | 5.3 | 2.0 |
 Real Sociedad |
3 | 2.67 | 1.00 | 67% | 67% | 33% | — | 8.3 | 2.0 |
 AZ Alkmaar |
3 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 2.04 / 1.47 | 11.3 | 2.0 |
 Anderlecht |
9 | 2.00 | 0.78 | 67% | 44% | 44% | 1.22 / 1.13 | 8.9 | 2.3 |
 1899 Hoffenheim |
3 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 67% | 33% | 33% | — | 14.7 | 3.7 |
 NEC Nijmegen |
3 | 1.67 | 2.67 | 67% | 67% | 0% | — | 5.0 | 1.3 |
 AC Milan |
3 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 67% | 0% | 33% | 1.65 / 1.57 | 8.7 | 2.3 |
 Rennes |
3 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 67% | 67% | 33% | — | 12.3 | 1.3 |
 Celta Vigo |
3 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 1.18 / 0.89 | 10.0 | 1.0 |
 Celje |
3 | 0.67 | 2.33 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 1.11 / 1.92 | 7.3 | 2.0 |
 Hapoel Beer Sheva |
3 | 0.33 | 2.00 | 67% | 33% | 33% | — | 6.0 | 2.3 |
 CSKA Sofia |
8 | 1.13 | 1.38 | 63% | 38% | 38% | — | 7.3 | 3.7 |
 Ararat-Armenia |
5 | 0.80 | 2.40 | 60% | 60% | 20% | — | 10.6 | 2.0 |
 Red Bull Salzburg |
7 | 1.57 | 1.29 | 57% | 29% | 57% | — | 7.8 | 1.5 |
 PAOK |
4 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 50% | 50% | 25% | — | — | — |
 Egnatia Rrogozhinë |
4 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 50% | 75% | 25% | — | — | — |
 Pafos |
4 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 50% | 25% | 25% | — | — | — |
 Qarabag |
4 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 50% | 0% | 100% | — | — | — |
 HNK Hajduk Split |
4 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 50% | 25% | 50% | — | — | — |
 FC Iberia 1999 |
4 | 0.50 | 1.75 | 50% | 50% | 25% | — | 10.7 | 4.3 |
 Beşiktaş |
9 | 1.89 | 0.67 | 44% | 33% | 56% | — | 9.8 | 2.0 |
 Omonia Nicosia |
7 | 1.57 | 1.14 | 43% | 43% | 43% | 1.12 / 1.74 | 9.7 | 1.3 |
 OFI |
5 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 40% | 20% | 60% | — | 12.0 | 1.2 |
 Lillestrom |
5 | 0.60 | 2.00 | 40% | 60% | 20% | — | 10.6 | 1.6 |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
3 | 2.67 | 0.00 | 33% | 0% | 100% | 3.52 / 0.58 | 10.7 | 1.7 |
 Sparta Praha |
3 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 33% | 67% | 0% | — | 13.0 | 2.3 |
 Olympiakos Piraeus |
3 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 33% | 33% | 67% | 1.80 / 0.72 | 13.3 | 2.0 |
 Sunderland |
3 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 33% | 67% | 33% | 2.57 / 1.42 | 12.3 | 2.3 |
 Dinamo Zagreb |
3 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 33% | 33% | 67% | — | 7.7 | 1.0 |
 Levski Sofia |
3 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 33% | 67% | 0% | — | 7.0 | 0.7 |
 Sturm Graz |
3 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 33% | 0% | 67% | — | 8.3 | 2.7 |
 Marseille |
3 | 0.33 | 2.00 | 33% | 33% | 0% | — | 7.3 | 2.0 |
 Universitatea Craiova |
4 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 25% | 75% | 0% | — | 10.0 | 2.7 |
 Hradec Králové |
4 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 25% | 25% | 25% | — | — | — |
 Dynamo Kyiv |
4 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 25% | 25% | 50% | — | — | — |
 Sheriff Tiraspol |
4 | 0.25 | 1.50 | 25% | 0% | 50% | — | — | — |
Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.
Football predictions, answered honestly
What are the best UEFA Europa League predictions?
The sharpest public forecast for UEFA Europa League is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every UEFA Europa League fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.
Do you offer UEFA Europa League betting tips?
We publish an audit, not tips. For each UEFA Europa League match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.
Measured by TipsAudit
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- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included
