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UEFA Nations League predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every UEFA Nations League fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No match has a fair price yet. Fair prices appear once Pinnacle prices a match, usually about a week before kick-off.

Scheduled matches

  • Türkiye – Belgium
  • Armenia – Cyprus
  • England – Croatia
  • Italy – France
  • Czechia – Spain
  • Albania – Finland
  • Montenegro – Latvia
  • San Marino – Belarus
  • Moldova – Kazakhstan
  • Slovenia – Switzerland

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

DateMatchScoreMarket gave this result
Moldova – Slovakia 0–4 —
Scotland – Slovenia 1–2 —
Luxembourg – Bulgaria 0–2 —
Estonia – Iceland 0–0 —
Belarus – Finland 1–0 —
Albania – San Marino 2–1 —
Switzerland – FYR Macedonia 3–0 —
England – Czechia 3–0 88%
Croatia – Spain 1–2 77%
Kazakhstan – Faroe Islands 2–2 —

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on UEFA Nations League

Across the matches we priced in UEFA Nations League, the market's average 1X2 margin is 6.57%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is 1xBet at 3.15%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

1xBet → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Final standings — 2026 season — completed. The fixtures below belong to the new season.

Reconstructed from the matches in the TipsAudit dataset — not an official league table. Teams may show a different number of games played, and play-off or play-out stages are not separated. For the official table, use the league's own source.

No standings yet — we have not settled enough matches in this league this season. Standings build automatically as results come in.

Top scorers — 2026 · updated 31 Oct 2026

# Player Team Goals Assists
1 H. Kane England 6 1
2 M. Olise France 4 2
2 Lamine Yamal Spain 4 1
2 L. Walta Finland 4 1
2 T. Parrott Rep. Of Ireland 4 0

Top scorers, assists and cards →

Team stats this season

104 matches this season: 2.46 goals per game, 50% over 2.5, 46% both teams scored. xG 2.58 per match (from 86 matches); 8.6 corners and 4.3 cards per match (from 104 matches with statistics).

TeamMPGFGA Over 2.5BTTSClean sheets xG for / against CornersCards
Spain 43.001.25 100%100%0% 2.31 / 0.90 7.81.0
Switzerland 42.750.25 100%25%75% 1.72 / 0.19 7.80.3
Norway 41.502.00 100%100%0% 1.05 / 1.31 9.02.0
Croatia 41.003.50 100%75%0% 1.23 / 3.05 7.82.0
San Marino 40.254.00 100%25%0% 0.52 / 2.65 9.03.0
England 43.500.75 75%25%75% 3.22 / 1.61 8.01.3
Austria 42.251.25 75%100%0% 1.64 / 1.03 7.01.5
Portugal 42.251.00 75%75%25% 1.99 / 0.69 10.33.0
Albania 42.000.75 75%50%50% 2.12 / 0.56 10.52.3
Netherlands 41.751.25 75%100%0% — 11.01.5
Montenegro 41.751.00 75%75%25% 1.89 / 0.84 7.01.5
Kazakhstan 41.251.75 75%100%0% 0.56 / 1.22 12.32.0
Serbia 40.752.00 75%75%0% — 9.52.3
Romania 40.753.25 75%50%0% 0.65 / 2.43 6.83.3
Türkiye 40.502.75 75%50%0% 1.73 / 1.77 8.82.8
Czechia 40.502.50 75%50%0% 0.58 / 1.77 7.03.0
Slovakia 42.250.50 50%50%50% 1.39 / 0.77 10.51.0
Finland 42.250.50 50%25%50% 1.69 / 0.53 8.31.5
Italy 42.001.25 50%75%0% 1.89 / 2.08 10.52.3
Iceland 41.750.25 50%25%75% 2.23 / 0.91 8.52.0
Denmark 41.751.75 50%50%50% 1.36 / 1.16 8.31.5
Sweden 41.750.75 50%75%25% 1.71 / 0.59 6.00.8
Poland 41.751.00 50%25%50% 1.74 / 1.04 8.02.8
Rep. Of Ireland 41.501.00 50%50%25% 1.26 / 1.70 5.31.8
Belgium 41.501.25 50%25%50% 1.41 / 1.58 9.53.5
Cyprus 41.250.75 50%50%50% 1.02 / 1.61 11.52.8
Greece 41.250.75 50%50%50% — 9.32.5
Slovenia 41.250.75 50%50%50% 0.83 / 1.22 7.53.3
Scotland 40.751.25 50%25%50% 1.90 / 0.82 8.01.8
Bulgaria 40.751.25 50%25%50% 1.12 / 1.56 10.03.0
Moldova 40.752.00 50%50%0% 1.24 / 1.46 11.30.8
Ukraine 40.501.25 50%25%50% 0.54 / 1.45 6.83.8
Latvia 40.501.50 50%50%25% 0.64 / 1.58 11.01.5
Israel 40.501.75 50%50%25% 0.64 / 1.80 6.82.3
Luxembourg 40.501.75 50%25%0% 0.69 / 1.73 8.02.8
FYR Macedonia 40.002.50 50%0%0% 0.30 / 2.51 8.83.0
Malta 31.330.67 33%67%33% 2.08 / 0.53 8.32.3
Andorra 30.331.00 33%33%33% 0.69 / 1.50 8.03.7
France 41.750.50 25%50%50% 1.41 / 1.01 9.31.8
Bosnia & Herzegovina 41.500.75 25%50%50% 1.05 / 1.08 6.82.5
Belarus 41.250.50 25%0%75% 0.82 / 1.22 8.33.3
Faroe Islands 41.251.25 25%100%0% 1.18 / 0.91 11.51.5
Northern Ireland 41.000.00 25%0%100% 1.33 / 0.84 8.82.0
Armenia 41.001.25 25%25%50% 0.79 / 0.70 9.01.8
Kosovo 40.751.00 25%50%50% 1.45 / 0.84 6.00.8
Hungary 40.750.50 25%25%50% 1.54 / 0.80 8.02.8
Wales 40.501.25 25%25%0% 0.72 / 1.71 7.52.3
Lithuania 31.000.67 0%33%33% 1.23 / 0.93 5.72.0
Germany 40.750.50 0%25%50% — 10.31.3
Azerbaijan 30.670.33 0%33%67% 1.73 / 0.83 5.02.7
Estonia 40.500.25 0%25%75% 1.13 / 0.97 10.52.0
Georgia 40.000.50 0%0%50% 0.86 / 1.22 9.52.3

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best UEFA Nations League predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for UEFA Nations League is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every UEFA Nations League fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer UEFA Nations League betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each UEFA Nations League match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit

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