Ukraine

Ukraine Persha Liga predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Ukraine Persha Liga fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No match has a fair price yet. Fair prices appear once Pinnacle prices a match, usually about a week before kick-off.

Scheduled matches

Fri · 10:00 UTC Ahrobiznes Volochysk – Prykarpattia
Sat · 09:30 UTC Lokomotiv Kyiv – Inhulets
Sat · 10:00 UTC Viktoriya Mykolaivka – SK Poltava
Sun · 09:00 UTC Chernihiv – Yarud Mariupol'
Sun · 10:00 UTC Kulykiv – UCSA
Sun · 11:30 UTC Probiy Horodenka – Nyva Ternopil
Mon · 10:00 UTC Kolos Kovalivka II – Metal Kharkiv
Mon · 11:30 UTC Polissya II – Oleksandria
Sat · 17:00 UTC Oleksandria – SK Poltava
Sat · 17:00 UTC Inhulets – Kulykiv

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
25 Oct	Nyva Ternopil – Kulykiv	3–1	—
25 Oct	Inhulets – Kolos Kovalivka II	2–0	44%
25 Oct	UCSA – Lokomotiv Kyiv	3–2	—
24 Oct	Polissya II – SK Poltava	1–2	—
24 Oct	Prykarpattia – Viktoriya Mykolaivka	1–1	—
24 Oct	Oleksandria – Probiy Horodenka	2–0	73%
23 Oct	Metal Kharkiv – Yarud Mariupol'	0–2	44%
18 Oct	Probiy Horodenka – Polissya II	1–1	—
18 Oct	Kulykiv – Oleksandria	1–1	—
18 Oct	Lokomotiv Kyiv – Nyva Ternopil	0–0	—

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	13	7	4	2	17	10	+7	25
2	SK Poltava	13	7	3	3	24	11	+13	24
3	Yarud Mariupol'	13	7	3	3	20	13	+7	24
4	Oleksandria	13	6	5	2	19	11	+8	23
5	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	7	2	3	19	14	+5	23
6	Kulykiv	13	6	3	4	26	17	+9	21
7	Nyva Ternopil	13	4	6	3	15	11	+4	18
8	Lokomotiv Kyiv	13	4	5	4	17	16	+1	17
9	Inhulets	12	5	2	5	13	16	-3	17
10	Prykarpattia	13	4	4	5	13	15	-2	16
11	Metal Kharkiv	13	4	3	6	13	16	-3	15
12	UCSA	13	3	5	5	18	21	-3	14
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	13	4	1	8	12	22	-10	13
14	Chernihiv	11	2	4	5	12	16	-4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	13	2	3	8	12	32	-20	9
16	Polissya II	13	1	5	7	18	27	-9	8

Team stats this season

100 matches this season: 2.61 goals per game, 51% over 2.5, 53% both teams scored.

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets
Polissya II	13	1.38	2.08	77%	85%	0%
Kulykiv	13	2.00	1.31	69%	85%	8%
SK Poltava	13	1.85	0.85	69%	46%	54%
UCSA	13	1.38	1.62	62%	62%	31%
Inhulets	12	1.08	1.33	58%	50%	25%
Prykarpattia	13	1.00	1.15	54%	46%	31%
Probiy Horodenka	13	0.92	2.15	54%	54%	0%
Yarud Mariupol'	12	1.67	1.00	50%	58%	25%
Lokomotiv Kyiv	13	1.31	1.23	46%	54%	31%
Kolos Kovalivka II	13	0.92	1.69	46%	31%	31%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka	12	1.33	0.83	42%	50%	42%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	1.25	1.17	42%	33%	58%
Nyva Ternopil	12	1.17	0.83	42%	58%	25%
Metal Kharkiv	13	1.00	1.23	39%	39%	23%
Chernihiv	11	1.09	1.45	36%	64%	18%
Oleksandria	12	1.50	0.83	25%	33%	58%

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	3.4	26.4%	0%
2	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	3.5	26.5%	0%
3	Yarud Mariupol'	3.8	19.4%	0%
4	Oleksandria	5.1	9.6%	0.1%
5	Kulykiv	5.6	7.1%	0.2%
6	SK Poltava	6.1	5.2%	0.2%
7	Inhulets	7.7	1.9%	1.3%
8	Nyva Ternopil	7.9	1.5%	1.4%
9	Lokomotiv Kyiv	8.2	1.3%	2.1%
10	Prykarpattia	10.1	0.5%	7%
11	Metal Kharkiv	10.4	0.3%	7.6%
12	UCSA	11.3	0.1%	13.3%
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	11.5	0.1%	14.9%
14	Chernihiv	12.9	0%	33.4%
15	Polissya II	14.3	0%	58.2%
16	Probiy Horodenka	14.3	0%	60.2%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Ukraine Persha Liga predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Ukraine Persha Liga is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Ukraine Persha Liga fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Ukraine Persha Liga betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Ukraine Persha Liga match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit