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USL Championship predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every USL Championship fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No match has a fair price yet. Fair prices appear once Pinnacle prices a match, usually about a week before kick-off.

Scheduled matches

Fri · 22:30 UTC Louisville City – Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Fri · 23:00 UTC Charleston Battery – Rhode Island
Fri · 23:30 UTC Tampa Bay Rowdies – Miami FC
Sat · 00:00 UTC Detroit City – Hartford Athletic
Sat · 01:00 UTC El Paso Locomotive – San Antonio
Sun · 19:00 UTC Lexington – Colorado Springs
Sun · 23:00 UTC New Mexico United – Phoenix Rising
Mon · 02:00 UTC Sacramento Republic – FC Tulsa

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
25 Oct	Monterey Bay – Las Vegas Lights	2–1	38%
25 Oct	Sacramento Republic – Oakland Roots	3–2	57%
25 Oct	Phoenix Rising – Lexington	3–3	24%
25 Oct	San Antonio – Orange County SC	2–1	53%
25 Oct	El Paso Locomotive – New Mexico United	0–1	22%
25 Oct	Colorado Springs – FC Tulsa	2–0	62%
24 Oct	Tampa Bay Rowdies – Sporting JAX	2–0	88%
24 Oct	Pittsburgh Riverhounds – Birmingham Legion	2–1	51%
24 Oct	Louisville City – Detroit City	0–0	27%
24 Oct	Hartford Athletic – Rhode Island	2–1	38%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on USL Championship

Across the matches we priced in USL Championship, the market's average 1X2 margin is 9.64%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 5.85%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	30	18	7	5	52	26	+26	61
1	New Mexico United	30	15	7	8	45	34	+11	52
2	Charleston Battery	30	16	5	9	56	35	+21	53
2	Sacramento Republic	30	13	12	5	42	28	+14	51
3	Detroit City	30	14	9	7	34	21	+13	51
3	El Paso Locomotive	30	15	5	10	48	38	+10	50
4	Louisville City	30	13	8	9	51	43	+8	47
4	Lexington	30	14	6	10	57	39	+18	48
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	30	13	6	11	33	30	+3	45
5	Colorado Springs	30	13	8	9	44	38	+6	47
6	Hartford Athletic	30	10	13	7	35	33	+2	43
6	San Antonio	30	11	12	7	32	30	+2	45
7	Rhode Island	30	12	6	12	42	33	+9	42
7	FC Tulsa	30	11	10	9	34	31	+3	43
8	Miami FC	30	9	9	12	39	49	-10	36
8	Phoenix Rising	30	10	10	10	45	46	-1	40
9	Indy Eleven	30	9	7	14	35	41	-6	34
9	Orange County SC	30	10	9	11	39	49	-10	39
10	Loudoun United	30	6	13	11	38	48	-10	31
10	Oakland Roots	30	9	11	10	39	40	-1	38
11	Birmingham Legion	30	6	12	12	40	46	-6	30
11	Las Vegas Lights	30	10	6	14	41	48	-7	36
12	Brooklyn	30	5	6	19	34	63	-29	21
12	Monterey Bay	30	6	6	18	32	52	-20	24
13	Sporting JAX	30	3	5	22	32	78	-46	14

Team stats this season

375 matches this season: 2.72 goals per game, 50% over 2.5, 54% both teams scored.

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets
Brooklyn	30	1.13	2.10	67%	53%	10%
Sporting JAX	30	1.07	2.60	67%	57%	0%
Lexington	30	1.90	1.30	60%	57%	33%
El Paso Locomotive	30	1.60	1.27	60%	60%	23%
Phoenix Rising	30	1.50	1.53	60%	67%	17%
Birmingham Legion	30	1.33	1.53	57%	63%	23%
Miami FC	30	1.30	1.63	57%	57%	23%
Charleston Battery	30	1.87	1.17	53%	47%	33%
Louisville City	30	1.70	1.43	53%	63%	27%
New Mexico United	30	1.50	1.13	53%	53%	30%
Las Vegas Lights	30	1.37	1.60	53%	67%	27%
Monterey Bay	30	1.07	1.73	53%	63%	13%
Orange County SC	30	1.30	1.63	50%	63%	23%
Colorado Springs	30	1.47	1.27	47%	53%	27%
Oakland Roots	30	1.30	1.33	47%	57%	27%
Loudoun United	30	1.27	1.60	47%	57%	33%
Indy Eleven	30	1.17	1.37	47%	53%	13%
Hartford Athletic	30	1.17	1.10	47%	53%	30%
Tampa Bay Rowdies	30	1.73	0.87	43%	40%	53%
Rhode Island	30	1.40	1.10	43%	53%	27%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	30	1.10	1.00	40%	43%	30%
San Antonio	30	1.07	1.00	40%	43%	40%
Sacramento Republic	30	1.40	0.93	33%	57%	33%
Detroit City	30	1.13	0.70	33%	37%	50%
FC Tulsa	30	1.13	1.03	30%	43%	40%

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	El Paso Locomotive	1.3	80.6%	0%
2	New Mexico United	3.3	10%	0%
3	Sacramento Republic	4.1	6.2%	0%
4	Lexington	5	2.1%	0%
5	Colorado Springs	6.2	0.8%	0%
6	Detroit City	7.6	0.2%	0%
7	Tampa Bay Rowdies	7.7	0%	0%
8	Hartford Athletic	7.9	0%	0%
9	FC Tulsa	8.3	0.1%	0%
10	Charleston Battery	8.7	0%	0%
11	Rhode Island	10.9	0%	0%
12	Las Vegas Lights	11.4	0%	0%
13	Louisville City	13.8	0%	0%
14	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	14.1	0%	0%
15	Phoenix Rising	15.4	0%	0.2%
16	Indy Eleven	15.7	0%	0.5%
17	Loudoun United	17.1	0%	4%
18	San Antonio	17.8	0%	3.3%
19	Orange County SC	18.2	0%	4.5%
20	Miami FC	18.5	0%	6.7%
21	Oakland Roots	20.6	0%	22.8%
22	Birmingham Legion	21.7	0%	44%
23	Sporting JAX	22	0%	48%
24	Brooklyn	22.7	0%	66.3%
25	Monterey Bay	24.9	0%	99.6%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best USL Championship predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for USL Championship is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every USL Championship fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer USL Championship betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each USL Championship match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit