Fair, margin-free probabilities for every USL Championship fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.
Reconstructed from the matches in the TipsAudit dataset — not an official league table. Teams may show a different number of games played, and play-off or play-out stages are not separated. For the official table, use the league's own source.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 20 | +20 | 48 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 23 | +10 | 41 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 40 |
| 4 | Charleston Battery | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 47 | 29 | +18 | 39 |
| 5 | Detroit City | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 37 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 37 | +3 | 37 |
| 7 | FC Tulsa | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 36 |
| 8 | Orange County SC | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 36 |
| 9 | San Antonio | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 36 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 35 |
| 11 | Sacramento Republic | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 33 |
| 12 | Louisville City | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 33 |
| 13 | Lexington | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 29 | +4 | 31 |
| 14 | Hartford Athletic | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 31 |
| 15 | Phoenix Rising | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 30 |
| 16 | Indy Eleven | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 28 | +0 | 30 |
| 17 | Rhode Island | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 29 |
| 18 | Las Vegas Lights | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 29 |
| 19 | Oakland Roots | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 27 |
| 20 | Miami FC | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 23 |
| 21 | Loudoun United | 22 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 20 |
| 22 | Birmingham Legion | 21 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 18 |
| 23 | Monterey Bay | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 42 | -17 | 18 |
| 24 | Brooklyn | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 16 |
| 25 | Sporting JAX | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 14 |
| # | Team | Avg. finish | P(title) | P(relegation) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico United | 1.8 | 60.2% | 0% |
| 2 | El Paso Locomotive | 2.7 | 26.2% | 0% |
| 3 | FC Tulsa | 5.6 | 4.9% | 0% |
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 6.8 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 6.9 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 6 | Detroit City | 7.2 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 7 | Colorado Springs | 7.6 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 8 | Rhode Island | 9.2 | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 9 | Hartford Athletic | 10.4 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 10 | Charleston Battery | 10.5 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 11 | Lexington | 10.6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 12 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 12.6 | 0% | 0.2% |
| 13 | Louisville City | 12.9 | 0% | 0.4% |
| 14 | Las Vegas Lights | 13.7 | 0% | 0.3% |
| 15 | Indy Eleven | 14 | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| 16 | Phoenix Rising | 14.1 | 0% | 0.9% |
| 17 | San Antonio | 16 | 0% | 2.3% |
| 18 | Orange County SC | 16.3 | 0% | 3.4% |
| 19 | Loudoun United | 17.1 | 0% | 5.9% |
| 20 | Sporting JAX | 18.4 | 0% | 9.8% |
| 21 | Brooklyn | 20 | 0% | 23.7% |
| 22 | Miami FC | 22 | 0% | 50.1% |
| 23 | Birmingham Legion | 22.2 | 0% | 54.8% |
| 24 | Oakland Roots | 22.2 | 0% | 54.1% |
| 25 | Monterey Bay | 24.3 | 0% | 92.4% |
How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.
The sharpest public forecast for USL Championship is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every USL Championship fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.
We publish an audit, not tips. For each USL Championship match you get the fair price and an honest value check; every prediction is logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.