World Cup 2026: the full audit, after the fact
The tournament is over. This page stays up as the record: the fair odds we published before each match and what actually happened, including the calls that missed. The value flags on these match pages were reconstructed on 26 September 2026 (a backtest), not the ones shown during the tournament.
For matches being priced right now: Predictions today · Track Record
Value flagged right now
matches where a soft bookmaker is priced above the sharp fair priceNo value flagged at the moment — the market is pricing these matches tightly. That is the honest answer most of the time.
Results so far
how our single picks settled — we publish the losses too| Match | Score | Pick | CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain — Argentina | 1–0 | 1 Spain | +1.3% | Lost |
| France — England | 4–6 | 1 France | +9.8% | Lost |
| England — Argentina | 1–2 | 1 England | +0.4% | Lost |
| France — Spain | 0–2 | 1 France | -6.5% | Lost |
| Norway — England | 1–2 | 2 England | -5.5% | Lost |
| Spain — Belgium | 2–1 | 1 Spain | -1.8% | Won |
| France — Morocco | 2–0 | 1 France | -0.6% | Won |
| Switzerland — Colombia | 0–0 | 2 Colombia | -5.8% | Lost |
| Argentina — Egypt | 3–2 | 1 Argentina | +2.2% | Won |
| USA — Belgium | 1–4 | 1 USA | +2.3% | Lost |
| Portugal — Spain | 0–1 | 2 Spain | -4.0% | Won |
| Mexico — England | 2–3 | 2 England | -6.6% | Won |
| Brazil — Norway | 1–2 | 1 Brazil | +7.8% | Lost |
| Paraguay — France | 0–1 | 2 France | -2.5% | Won |
| Canada — Morocco | 0–3 | 2 Morocco | -1.6% | Won |
| Colombia — Ghana | 1–0 | 1 Colombia | +10.3% | Won |
| Argentina — Cape Verde Islands | 3–2 | 1 Argentina | -0.9% | Lost |
| Australia — Egypt | 1–1 | 2 Egypt | +1.2% | Lost |
| Switzerland — Algeria | 2–0 | 1 Switzerland | +1.5% | Won |
| Portugal — Croatia | 2–1 | 1 Portugal | +5.8% | Won |
| Spain — Austria | 3–0 | 1 Spain | -4.4% | Won |
| USA — Bosnia & Herzegovina | 2–0 | 1 USA | +0.0% | Won |
| Belgium — Senegal | 3–2 | 1 Belgium | +8.1% | Lost |
| England — Congo DR | 2–1 | 1 England | -1.5% | Won |
| Mexico — Ecuador | 2–0 | 1 Mexico | -4.8% | Won |
| France — Sweden | 3–0 | 1 France | -0.8% | Won |
| Ivory Coast — Norway | 1–2 | 2 Norway | -7.3% | Won |
| Netherlands — Morocco | 1–1 | 1 Netherlands | -9.5% | Lost |
| Germany — Paraguay | 1–1 | 1 Germany | +2.2% | Lost |
| Brazil — Japan | 2–1 | 1 Brazil | -5.0% | Won |
| South Africa — Canada | 0–1 | 2 Canada | -8.0% | Won |
| Algeria — Austria | 3–3 | 2 Austria | -32.8% | Lost |
| Jordan — Argentina | 1–3 | 2 Argentina | +1.7% | Won |
| Colombia — Portugal | 0–0 | 2 Portugal | +8.1% | Lost |
| Congo DR — Uzbekistan | 3–1 | 1 Congo DR | +25.0% | Won |
| Croatia — Ghana | 2–1 | 1 Croatia | -11.7% | Won |
| Panama — England | 0–2 | 2 England | +4.3% | Won |
| Egypt — Iran | 1–1 | 1 Egypt | -21.6% | Lost |
| New Zealand — Belgium | 1–5 | 2 Belgium | +0.8% | Won |
| Uruguay — Spain | 0–1 | 2 Spain | -10.7% | Won |
Every pick was logged before kick-off. World Cup matches are shown here for reference and are not included in our audited track-record figures. Track Record →
Full schedule & fair probabilities
kick-off times in your time zone, grouped by UTC day · probabilities update as the market movesHow these predictions work
The headline probabilities come from the sharp betting market itself: we take Pinnacle-style odds and remove the bookmaker margin, which decades of research show is the most accurate public forecast of a football match. Our own statistical model runs alongside as a second opinion. We flag value only when a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price — and never on long shots, which our analysis of 32,000+ matches shows are systematically overpriced. Every prediction is logged before kick-off and settled publicly in our track record — wins and losses alike.
World Cup 2026 betting questions, answered honestly
What are the most accurate World Cup 2026 predictions?
The sharp betting market’s closing price with the margin removed is generally the strongest publicly available predictor of any football match. We tested this across tens of thousands of matches: no public model, AI or tipster was shown to consistently beat it. That is exactly what this page shows — the fair, margin-free probabilities for every World Cup match, updated as the market moves.
Can you actually make money betting on the World Cup?
Rarely, and not by following “sure tips”. Bookmakers price major tournaments very efficiently. The realistic opportunities are small: a soft bookmaker occasionally lags the sharp market on a specific selection. We flag those moments when they happen — and tell you honestly when they do not, which is most of the time.
Why do you show fair odds instead of tips?
Because a tip without a price is meaningless. A bet is only good if the odds you take are higher than the fair probability suggests. The fair odds are our best estimate of that price, taken from the sharp market, so you can judge any bookmaker offer — ours is an audit, not a tip sheet.
Is your track record real?
Every prediction on this site is logged before kick-off, settled publicly — including the losers — and snapshotted daily to a public log. You can inspect the full ledger on our track record page, with closing line value (CLV) for every pick.
