Portugal 2–1 Croatia
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · Latest results
Our backtest says that, with the sharp market making Portugal the most likely outcome at 54% (fair odds 1.87), Betsson offered 1.88, a gap of +0.7% above the fair price (Micro-edge). This was reconstructed on 26 September 2026, not recorded at the time. Recent form — Portugal: DWDWW; Croatia: WWLWL.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | Portugal | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 61 | 39 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 2.18 | 1.34 |
| Shots | 15 | 13 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 6 |
| Corners | 9 | 5 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 6 | 12 |
| Offsides | 1 | 4 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 5 | 2 |
| Pass accuracy % | 91 | 85 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Portugal win 57% happened
- Draw 26% did not happen
- Croatia win 16% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 54% happened
- Both teams score 57% happened
- Backtest flag (reconstructed afterwards, not recorded at the time): 1 · Portugal @ 1.88 (Betsson) Won
CLV +7.8% vs the fair close. One flag on its own says little; the rule is judged on all of them.
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Portugal 4-2-3-1
- Diogo Costa GK
- João Cancelo DF
- Rúben Dias DF
- Renato Veiga DF
- Nuno Mendes DF
- João Neves MF
- Vitinha MF
- Pedro Neto MF
- Bruno Fernandes MF
- Rafael Leão MF
- Cristiano Ronaldo FW
Croatia 4-2-3-1
- Dominik Livaković GK
- Josip Stanišić DF
- Josip Šutalo DF
- Marin Pongračić DF
- Ivan Perišić DF
- Luka Modrić MF
- Mateo Kovačić MF
- Nikola Vlašić MF
- Petar Sučić MF
- Martin Baturina MF
- Ante Budimir FW
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 57 / 26 / 16% when the line-ups came out, 57 / 26 / 16% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off Micro-edge
Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Portugal (1) was priced at 1.88 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 1.87 — a +0.7% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.
The gap was smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We logged it for transparency, but it was not a strong signal.
A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.
The market's two most likely results
No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 53% | 27% | 20% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Portugal averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Croatia averaged 1.4 and 1.6 over 5.
Since opening around 1.82, the sharp market price on Portugal has shortened to 1.74 — the market has moved towards this outcome.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Value lifecycle Settled
“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.
Public, timestamped record
Backtest: reconstructed on 26 September 2026 by applying today’s rule to the prices stored before kick-off. It was not shown in this form at the time; its seal was created at the reconstruction, which for matches already played was after the match.
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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