Saudi Pro League Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC

Al-Nassr vs NEOM

Fair price as of 10:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 17:35 UTC
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The sharp market makes Al-Nassr the most likely outcome at 70% — fair odds of 1.43. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Al-Nassr: WWLDW; NEOM: LDWWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on Al-Nassr anyway? The best price we see is 1.44 at Coral, +0.5% against the fair odds of 1.43. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

1 Home win 70%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	70%	17%	14%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	70%	16%	14%
Our model	71%	20%	9%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 2 hours ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.43

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.38 / 5.09 / 6.03

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 1.39 / 5.00 / 6.78

Market Gap —

Confidence —

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 26 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	1.43	6.04	7.30
Pinnacle sharp	1.39	5.18	6.16
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	1.39	5.20	7.20
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	1.39	5.20	7.20
Smarkets exchange	1.39	5.20	7.20
1xBet	1.39	5.00 ★	6.78
Betfair Sportsbook	1.36	5.00 ★	7.00 ★
Coral	1.44 ★	4.80	6.50
Ladbrokes	1.44 ★	4.80	6.50

Show all 26 bookmakers

888sport	1.36	4.50	5.75
Betfred (UK)	1.36	4.60	6.50
BoyleSports	1.33	4.75	5.50
Grosvenor	1.38	4.60	6.40
LeoVegas (SE)	1.35	4.50	6.25
LiveScore Bet	1.36	4.50	6.25
PMU (FR)	1.30	4.30	6.00
Paddy Power	1.33	4.75	6.50
Sky Bet	1.36	4.60	6.00
Tipico	1.35	4.90	6.50
Unibet (FR)	1.29	4.40	5.50
Unibet (NL)	1.38	4.60	6.40
Unibet (SE)	1.38	4.60	6.40
Unibet (UK)	1.42	4.75	6.00
Virgin Bet	1.36	4.50	6.25
William Hill	1.36	4.50	5.80
Winamax (DE)	1.39	4.80	5.50
Winamax (FR)	1.36	4.50	5.20

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 4 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	65% fair 1.54 best 1.53 · Betano	35% fair 2.85 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
3.25	2.15 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet	1.87 fair best 1.78 · SBO
3.5	41% fair 2.44 best 2.30 · Betano	59% fair 1.69 best 1.65 · Betano

All lines (8)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	84% fair 1.19 best 1.17 · Betano	16% fair 6.40 best 6.00 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	65% fair 1.54 best 1.53 · Betano	35% fair 2.85 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.75	1.67 fair best 1.58 · BetVictor	2.50 fair best 2.19 · BetVictor
3	1.86 fair best 1.82 · Betano	2.17 fair best 2.05 · Betano
3.25	2.15 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet	1.87 fair best 1.78 · SBO
3.5	41% fair 2.44 best 2.30 · Betano	59% fair 1.69 best 1.65 · Betano
3.75	2.87 fair best 2.46 · 1xBet	1.54 fair best 1.43 · 1xBet
4.5	22% fair 4.63 best 3.80 · Betano	78% fair 1.28 best 1.27 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
86% fair 1.16 best 1.15 · Betano	83% fair 1.20 best 1.17 · William Hill	30% fair 3.31 best 3.00 · Betfair Sportsbook

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Al-Nassr	NEOM
−1.75	2.70 fair best 2.41 · 1xBet	1.59 fair best 1.55 · Bet365
−1.5	44% fair 2.29 best 2.15 · Betano	56% fair 1.78 best 1.75 · Betano
−1.25	1.99 fair best 1.88 · Bet365	2.01 fair best 1.92 · Bet365
−1	1.70 fair best 1.70 · Betano	2.44 fair best 2.22 · Betano
−0.75	1.53 fair best 1.52 · Bet365	2.87 fair best 2.43 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Al-Nassr	NEOM
−2.25	3.96 fair best 3.30 · Bet365	1.34 fair best 1.32 · Bet365
−2	3.48 fair best 3.05 · Betano	1.40 fair best 1.40 · Bet365
−1.75	2.70 fair best 2.41 · 1xBet	1.59 fair best 1.55 · Bet365
−1.5	44% fair 2.29 best 2.15 · Betano	56% fair 1.78 best 1.75 · Betano
−1.25	1.99 fair best 1.88 · Bet365	2.01 fair best 1.92 · Bet365
−1	1.70 fair best 1.70 · Betano	2.44 fair best 2.22 · Betano
−0.75	1.53 fair best 1.52 · Bet365	2.87 fair best 2.43 · 1xBet
−0.5	70% fair 1.43 best 1.45 · Betano	30% fair 3.30 best 2.85 · Betano
−0.25	1.31 fair best 1.30 · Bet365	4.27 fair best 3.45 · Bet365

Goals by team

Al-Nassr goals

Line	Over	Under
2.5	39% fair 2.53 best 2.25 · Bet365	61% fair 1.65 best 1.60 · Betano

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	70% fair 1.43 best 1.44 · Betano	30% fair 3.33 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	39% fair 2.53 best 2.25 · Bet365	61% fair 1.65 best 1.60 · Betano

NEOM goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	63% fair 1.59 best 1.53 · Betano	37% fair 2.70 best 2.50 · Bet365

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	63% fair 1.59 best 1.53 · Betano	37% fair 2.70 best 2.50 · Bet365
1.5	24% fair 4.24 best 3.50 · Bet365	76% fair 1.31 best 1.30 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
52% fair 1.92 best 1.93 · Betano	34% fair 2.94 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook	14% fair 7.17 best 6.00 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	1.95 fair best 1.83 · SBO	2.05 fair best 1.93 · SBO
1.5	41% fair 2.41 best 2.27 · Betano	59% fair 1.71 best 1.65 · Betano

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.36 fair best 1.29 · 1xBet	3.80 fair best 3.04 · 1xBet
1	1.52 fair best 1.53 · Betano	2.93 fair best 2.50 · Betano
1.25	1.95 fair best 1.83 · SBO	2.05 fair best 1.93 · SBO
1.5	41% fair 2.41 best 2.27 · Betano	59% fair 1.71 best 1.65 · Betano
1.75	3.07 fair best 2.57 · 1xBet	1.48 fair best 1.45 · BetVictor

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
8.5	61% fair 1.63 best 1.52 · Betano	39% fair 2.58 best 2.45 · Betano
9.5	49% fair 2.03 best 1.87 · 1xBet	51% fair 1.97 best 1.87 · Betano
10.5	37% fair 2.67 best 2.45 · Betano	63% fair 1.60 best 1.52 · Betano

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
8.5	61% fair 1.63 best 1.52 · Betano	39% fair 2.58 best 2.45 · Betano
9	1.79 fair —	2.27 fair —
9.5	49% fair 2.03 best 1.87 · 1xBet	51% fair 1.97 best 1.87 · Betano
10	2.35 fair —	1.74 fair —
10.5	37% fair 2.67 best 2.45 · Betano	63% fair 1.60 best 1.52 · Betano

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	Al-Nassr	NEOM
−3.5	38% fair 2.60 best 2.40 · 1xBet	62% fair 1.62 best 1.50 · 1xBet
−3	2.33 fair best 2.13 · 1xBet	1.75 fair best 1.59 · 1xBet
−2.5	49% fair 2.05 best 1.90 · 1xBet	51% fair 1.95 best 1.98 · Bet365
−2	1.80 fair best 1.69 · 1xBet	2.25 fair best 1.97 · 1xBet
−1.5	61% fair 1.64 best 1.55 · 1xBet	39% fair 2.57 best 2.26 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

2–010.1%fair 9.88
2–19.6%fair 10.40
1–08.9%fair 11.21
3–08.1%fair 12.39
3–17.7%fair 13.05
1–17.6%fair 13.21

Total goals

03%
113%
219%
322%
4+43%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Al-Nassr at home, NEOM away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Al-Nassr	NEOM
Goals scored per game	2.20 (2.50)	1.50 (1.30)
Goals conceded per game	1.20 (0.70)	0.90 (1.30)
Over 2.5 goals	90% (70%)	30% (30%)
Both teams scored	60% (60%)	40% (50%)
Clean sheets	30% (30%)	30% (20%)
Failed to score	10% (10%)	30% (30%)
xG for / against per game	1.79 / 0.87	1.27 / 0.79
Corners for / against per game	8.30 / 3.70	5.10 / 2.50
Cards per game	1.50	1.20

Over 2.5 goals: Al-Nassr in 90% and NEOM in 30% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 65% for this match.

From 10 matches for Al-Nassr and 10 for NEOM. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

The last 2 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 2–0–0 (Al-Nassr wins – draws – NEOM wins).

Al-Nassr scored 1.8 and conceded 1.4 across their last 5 matches in our results database; NEOM scored 2 and conceded 0.8 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Al-Nassr has won its last 2 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Al-Nassr here.

NEOM is averaging 2 goals scored over its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on NEOM here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Al-Nassr

W W L D W

avg 1.8 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)

NEOM

L D W W W

avg 2 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)

Recent head-to-head

07 Mar 2026 Al-Nassr 1–0 NEOM

08 Nov 2025 NEOM 1–3 Al-Nassr

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1 · Home win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.38

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 64f5b7084af3ca8e

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit