League One Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC

Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday

Fair price as of 18:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 18:20 UTC
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The sharp market makes Sheffield Wednesday the most likely outcome at 44% — fair odds of 2.29. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Notts County: LLLLD; Sheffield Wednesday: WDDDW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

Edge at detection +1.3% @ 2.28 · 19 Oct

Edge right now No value at the current price 42 minutes ago

We flagged +1.3% on 2 on 19 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on Sheffield Wednesday anyway? The best price we see is 2.28 at Casumo, -0.5% against the fair odds of 2.29. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 73%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	29%	27%	44%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	35%	27%	38%
Our model	60%	23%	17%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 42 minutes ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.37

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.74 / 3.46 / 2.49

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 3.20 / 3.50 / 2.28

Market Gap —

Confidence —

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 32 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	3.42	3.68	2.29
Pinnacle sharp	3.22	3.45	2.20
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	3.35	3.65	2.24
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	3.35	3.65	2.24
Betfair Sportsbook	3.20	3.60 ★	2.15
Casumo	2.95	3.45	2.28 ★
Coral	3.25 ★	3.50	2.15
Unibet (NL)	2.95	3.45	2.28 ★
Unibet (SE)	2.95	3.45	2.28 ★

Show all 32 bookmakers

Matchbook exchange	3.40	3.65	2.24
Smarkets exchange	3.30	3.55	2.22
1xBet	3.13	3.44	2.17
888sport	3.10	3.25	2.15
BetOnline.ag	3.15	3.30	2.18
BetVictor	3.12	3.50	2.15
Betano (UK)	3.12	3.50	2.15
Betfred (UK)	3.10	3.40	2.15
Betway	3.10	3.40	2.15
BoyleSports	3.00	3.30	2.10
Codere (IT)	3.05	3.30	2.12
Coolbet	3.15	3.50	2.15
Grosvenor	2.85	3.35	2.20
Ladbrokes	3.20	3.50	2.15
LeoVegas	3.10	3.40	2.15
LeoVegas (SE)	2.80	3.30	2.18
LiveScore Bet	2.85	3.35	2.20
Marathonbet	3.12	3.44	2.15
Paddy Power	3.20	3.50	2.10
Sky Bet	3.10	3.40	2.10
Tipico	3.20	3.40	2.00
Unibet (UK)	3.20	3.40	2.20
Virgin Bet	2.85	3.35	2.20
William Hill	3.10	3.25	2.15

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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How the game works →

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 11 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	54% fair 1.87 best 1.78 · Betano	46% fair 2.15 best 2.05 · Bet365
2.75	2.11 fair best 1.96 · 1xBet	1.90 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet
3.5	30% fair 3.31 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook	70% fair 1.43 best 1.40 · Bet365

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	79% fair 1.26 best 1.25 · BetVictor	21% fair 4.84 best 4.10 · Betfair Sportsbook
2	1.40 fair best 1.37 · BetVictor	3.49 fair best 2.92 · 1xBet
2.25	1.63 fair best 1.56 · 1xBet	2.59 fair best 2.32 · 1xBet
2.5	54% fair 1.87 best 1.78 · Betano	46% fair 2.15 best 2.05 · Bet365
2.75	2.11 fair best 1.96 · 1xBet	1.90 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet
3	2.53 fair best 2.30 · Betano	1.65 fair best 1.60 · Betano
3.25	2.93 fair best 2.49 · 1xBet	1.52 fair best 1.46 · BetVictor
3.5	30% fair 3.31 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook	70% fair 1.43 best 1.40 · Bet365
4.5	14% fair 7.19 best 6.00 · BetVictor	86% fair 1.16 best 1.16 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
56% fair 1.77 best 1.75 · Betano	73% fair 1.37 best 1.30 · William Hill	71% fair 1.41 best 1.37 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Notts County	Sheffield Wednesday
−0.25	3.08 fair best 2.75 · Bet365	1.48 fair best 1.44 · 1xBet
0	2.56 fair best 2.38 · Bet365	1.64 fair best 1.58 · 1xBet
+0.25	2.05 fair best 1.98 · Bet365	1.95 fair best 1.88 · Bet365
+0.5	56% fair 1.78 best 1.72 · Betano	44% fair 2.28 best 2.10 · Bet365
+0.75	1.58 fair best 1.52 · Bet365	2.73 fair best 2.42 · Bet365

All lines (10)

Line	Notts County	Sheffield Wednesday
−1	5.94 fair best 5.90 · Bet365	1.20 fair best 1.13 · Bet365
−0.75	4.75 fair best 4.00 · Bet365	1.27 fair best 1.23 · Bet365
−0.5	28% fair 3.60 best 3.30 · Bet365	72% fair 1.39 best 1.32 · Bet365
−0.25	3.08 fair best 2.75 · Bet365	1.48 fair best 1.44 · 1xBet
0	2.56 fair best 2.38 · Bet365	1.64 fair best 1.58 · 1xBet
+0.25	2.05 fair best 1.98 · Bet365	1.95 fair best 1.88 · Bet365
+0.5	56% fair 1.78 best 1.72 · Betano	44% fair 2.28 best 2.10 · Bet365
+0.75	1.58 fair best 1.52 · Bet365	2.73 fair best 2.42 · Bet365
+1	1.37 fair best 1.35 · Bet365	3.67 fair best 3.20 · BetVictor
+1.25	1.31 fair best 1.27 · Bet365	4.23 fair best 3.60 · BetVictor

Goals by team

Notts County goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	34% fair 2.97 best 2.62 · Bet365	66% fair 1.51 best 1.49 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	74% fair 1.35 best 1.35 · Betano	26% fair 3.82 best 3.30 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5	34% fair 2.97 best 2.62 · Bet365	66% fair 1.51 best 1.49 · 1xBet

Sheffield Wednesday goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	46% fair 2.15 best 2.00 · BetVictor	54% fair 1.87 best 1.80 · Bet365

All lines (3)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	81% fair 1.23 best 1.21 · Betano	19% fair 5.26 best 4.50 · 1xBet
1.5	46% fair 2.15 best 2.00 · BetVictor	54% fair 1.87 best 1.80 · Bet365
2.5	20% fair 5.10 best 4.50 · Betfair Sportsbook	80% fair 1.24 best 1.23 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
24% fair 4.09 best 3.80 · 1xBet	41% fair 2.43 best 2.30 · Bet365	34% fair 2.90 best 2.75 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73% fair 1.37 best 1.39 · Betano	27% fair 3.68 best 3.30 · Betfair Sportsbook
1	1.80 fair best 1.80 · Betano	2.24 fair best 2.05 · 1xBet
1.5	34% fair 2.94 best 2.65 · Betano	66% fair 1.52 best 1.47 · 1xBet

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73% fair 1.37 best 1.39 · Betano	27% fair 3.68 best 3.30 · Betfair Sportsbook
0.75	1.52 fair best 1.48 · BetVictor	2.94 fair best 2.56 · 1xBet
1	1.80 fair best 1.80 · Betano	2.24 fair best 2.05 · 1xBet
1.25	2.36 fair best 2.10 · BetVictor	1.73 fair best 1.64 · 1xBet
1.5	34% fair 2.94 best 2.65 · Betano	66% fair 1.52 best 1.47 · 1xBet
1.75	3.81 fair best 3.06 · 1xBet	1.36 fair best 1.34 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–112.9%fair 7.77
1–29.2%fair 10.89
0–18.2%fair 12.21
0–27.3%fair 13.61
2–17.3%fair 13.68
0–07.1%fair 14.01

Total goals

07%
114%
225%
322%
4+31%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Notts County at home, Sheffield Wednesday away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Notts County	Sheffield Wednesday
Goals scored per game	0.90 (1.70)	2.00 (1.10)
Goals conceded per game	1.40 (1.10)	1.00 (1.70)
Over 2.5 goals	30% (60%)	60% (70%)
Both teams scored	70% (70%)	50% (70%)
Clean sheets	0% (20%)	30% (10%)
Failed to score	30% (20%)	40% (30%)
xG for / against per game	1.14 / 1.05	2.14 / 1.36
Corners for / against per game	4.20 / 5.20	5.90 / 5.40
Cards per game	2.70	2.00

Over 2.5 goals: Notts County in 30% and Sheffield Wednesday in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 54% for this match.

From 10 matches for Notts County and 10 for Sheffield Wednesday. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Notts County scored 0.4 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Sheffield Wednesday scored 1.8 and conceded 0.6 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Notts County has lost its last 4 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Notts County here.

Sheffield Wednesday is unbeaten in its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Sheffield Wednesday here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Notts County

L L L L D

avg 0.4 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Sheffield Wednesday

W D D D W

avg 1.8 scored · 0.6 conceded (last 5)

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.30

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 74bb9785f3c608f1

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit