England

League One predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every League One fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No match has a fair price yet. Fair prices appear once Pinnacle prices a match, usually about a week before kick-off.

Scheduled matches

Tue · 19:45 UTC Huddersfield – Luton
Wed · 19:45 UTC Oxford United – Reading
Sat · 15:00 UTC Leicester – Bradford
Sat · 15:00 UTC Wigan – Barnsley
Sat · 15:00 UTC Sheffield Wednesday – Plymouth
Sat · 15:00 UTC AFC Wimbledon – Blackpool
Sat · 15:00 UTC Milton Keynes Dons – Burton Albion
Sat · 15:00 UTC Peterborough – Oxford United
Sat · 15:00 UTC Doncaster – Leyton Orient
Sat · 15:00 UTC Wycombe – Huddersfield

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
01 Nov	Sheffield Wednesday – Blackpool	1–1	24%
31 Oct	Stockport County – AFC Wimbledon	2–1	76%
31 Oct	Mansfield Town – Notts County	0–2	25%
31 Oct	Wycombe – Burton Albion	2–0	63%
31 Oct	Peterborough – Luton	0–2	46%
31 Oct	Milton Keynes Dons – Doncaster	6–1	46%
31 Oct	Barnsley – Oxford United	1–1	24%
31 Oct	Wigan – Bromley	3–2	48%
31 Oct	Leicester – Stevenage	2–2	20%
31 Oct	Leyton Orient – Cambridge United	3–0	38%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on League One

Across the matches we priced in League One, the market's average 1X2 margin is 7.09%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 4.09%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Huddersfield	13	8	4	1	27	11	+16	28
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	26	14	+12	26
3	Oxford United	12	6	5	1	20	11	+9	23
4	Luton	13	7	2	4	26	20	+6	23
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	21	19	+2	23
6	Reading	13	6	4	3	25	13	+12	22
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	10	8	+2	22
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	21	21	+0	21
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	22	14	+8	20
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	22	19	+3	19
11	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	22	20	+2	18
12	Mansfield Town	12	5	3	4	20	18	+2	18
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	21	23	-2	18
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	19	14	+5	17
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	18	21	-3	17
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	17	13	+4	16
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	13	14	-1	14
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	9	21	-12	13
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	17	21	-4	12
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	14	22	-8	12
21	Wigan	13	3	1	9	11	22	-11	10
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	11	23	-12	10
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	12	22	-10	9
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	13	33	-20	9

Team stats this season

155 matches this season: 2.79 goals per game, 54% over 2.5, 56% both teams scored. xG 2.87 per match (from 147 matches); 11.3 corners and 3.8 cards per match (from 155 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Huddersfield	13	2.08	0.85	69%	69%	31%	2.19 / 0.99	9.8	1.7
Luton	13	2.00	1.54	69%	77%	15%	1.73 / 1.15	10.8	1.9
Leicester	13	1.69	1.46	69%	62%	31%	1.70 / 1.28	12.5	1.9
Mansfield Town	12	1.67	1.50	67%	58%	17%	1.63 / 1.24	10.1	2.1
Barnsley	12	1.00	1.83	67%	75%	8%	1.32 / 1.70	14.3	2.5
Cambridge United	14	1.43	1.43	64%	79%	14%	1.36 / 1.61	13.5	1.9
Burton Albion	14	1.29	1.50	64%	64%	14%	0.97 / 1.30	10.2	1.8
Bromley	13	0.92	2.46	62%	54%	15%	0.84 / 1.96	10.5	2.2
Oxford United	12	1.67	0.92	58%	67%	33%	1.54 / 1.54	12.0	1.9
Blackpool	12	1.42	1.75	58%	67%	17%	1.31 / 1.92	13.3	2.0
Reading	13	1.92	1.00	54%	54%	39%	1.95 / 1.11	9.8	1.7
Milton Keynes Dons	13	1.69	1.54	54%	69%	23%	1.69 / 1.48	11.1	1.9
Wycombe	13	1.54	1.77	54%	69%	23%	1.43 / 1.35	11.7	1.3
Wigan	13	0.85	1.62	54%	39%	15%	1.39 / 1.91	10.5	2.9
Stockport County	14	1.86	1.00	50%	50%	36%	2.14 / 1.09	11.1	1.1
Plymouth	14	1.50	1.29	50%	36%	36%	1.37 / 1.46	11.1	1.4
Stevenage	12	1.42	1.08	50%	50%	25%	1.13 / 1.17	10.3	1.5
Sheffield Wednesday	13	1.69	1.08	46%	54%	23%	1.76 / 1.46	12.2	2.2
Leyton Orient	13	1.38	1.08	46%	39%	46%	1.23 / 1.55	10.9	1.8
Doncaster	13	1.08	1.69	46%	54%	31%	1.09 / 1.63	11.2	2.2
Peterborough	13	0.85	1.77	46%	54%	8%	1.46 / 1.48	10.7	1.5
AFC Wimbledon	13	0.69	1.62	46%	39%	39%	0.88 / 1.68	11.4	1.5
Notts County	12	1.08	1.17	25%	58%	17%	1.18 / 1.17	9.7	2.8
Bradford	13	0.77	0.62	15%	15%	69%	1.16 / 1.05	13.1	2.1

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Huddersfield	3	34.9%	0%
2	Stockport County	4.1	19.2%	0%
3	Luton	5	12.3%	0%
4	Plymouth	5	11.5%	0%
5	Bradford	5.9	8.4%	0%
6	Reading	6.5	6.3%	0.1%
7	Cambridge United	8.1	3%	0.3%
8	Oxford United	9.2	1.9%	0.4%
9	Milton Keynes Dons	9.6	1.1%	0.6%
10	Mansfield Town	10.4	0.8%	0.8%
11	Wycombe	12.3	0.3%	2.7%
12	Notts County	12.7	0.2%	3.2%
13	Stevenage	13.5	0.1%	4.1%
14	Burton Albion	14.5	0%	7%
15	Leicester	14.6	0.1%	6.9%
16	Leyton Orient	14.7	0.1%	7.6%
17	Blackpool	16.2	0%	12.9%
18	Doncaster	17.5	0%	20.3%
19	Sheffield Wednesday	18.5	0%	26.6%
20	Bromley	18.6	0%	29.2%
21	AFC Wimbledon	19	0%	31.6%
22	Barnsley	19.8	0%	41.2%
23	Wigan	20.6	0%	50%
24	Peterborough	20.9	0%	54.5%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best League One predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for League One is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every League One fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer League One betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each League One match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit