League Two Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC

Exeter City vs Crewe

Fair price as of 16:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 18:20 UTC
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The sharp market makes Exeter City the most likely outcome at 36% — fair odds of 2.74. Unibet (NL) offers 3.25, a market gap of +1.4% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Micro-edge). Confidence is Low and model agreement is High. Recent form — Exeter City: DWWLD; Crewe: WWWDD.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity Micro-edge

X Draw @ 3.25

Bookmaker Unibet (NL)

Price observed Mon, 19 Oct · 16:34 UTC

Flag recorded Mon, 19 Oct · 08:00 UTC @ 3.25 (Unibet (NL)) · recorded live, before kick-off

Market 1X2 (match result)

Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.

Fair price 3.20

Unibet (NL) 3.25

Confidence: Low

Edge at detection +1.5% @ 3.25 · 19 Oct

Edge right now +1.4% @ 3.25 · 1 hour ago

The gap has held since we flagged it: both the sharp benchmark and the soft price are re-read continuously, and the edge above is computed on the current market, not on the odds we saw at detection.

Market discrepancy: Draw (X) is priced at 3.25 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 3.20 — a +1.4% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

The gap is smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We log it for transparency, but it is not a strong signal.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 70%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	36%	31%	32%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	37%	30%	33%
Our model	34%	29%	37%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 1 hour ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.43

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.56 / 3.13 / 2.84

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 2.55 / 3.25 / 2.86

Market Gap +1.4%

Confidence Low

Model agreement High

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 34 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	2.74	3.20	3.09
Pinnacle sharp	2.60	3.01	2.91
Betfair Sportsbook	2.50	3.30 ★	2.80
Betsson	2.55 ★	3.00	2.80
Betway	2.50	3.00	2.88 ★
Nordic Bet	2.55 ★	3.00	2.80
Paddy Power	2.50	3.30 ★	2.80
Tipico	2.55 ★	3.10	2.55
Unibet (UK)	2.50	3.20	2.88 ★

Show all 34 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	2.64	3.20	2.94
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	2.64	3.20	2.94
Matchbook exchange	2.64	3.20	2.96
Smarkets exchange	2.58	3.20	2.98
1xBet	2.50	3.04	2.81
888sport	2.50	3.00	2.80
BetOnline.ag	2.52	2.92	2.86
BetVictor	2.50	3.25	2.80
Betano (UK)	2.50	3.25	2.80
Betfred (UK)	2.40	3.20	2.75
BoyleSports	2.50	3.00	2.75
Casumo	2.48	3.25	2.75
Codere (IT)	2.43	3.05	2.80
Coolbet	2.50	3.20	2.80
Coral	2.50	3.20	2.87
Grosvenor	2.40	3.15	2.65
Ladbrokes	2.50	3.20	2.80
LeoVegas	2.45	3.20	2.80
LeoVegas (SE)	2.40	3.15	2.63
LiveScore Bet	2.40	3.15	2.63
Marathonbet	2.50	3.04	2.81
Sky Bet	2.45	3.20	2.75
Unibet (NL)	2.48	3.25	2.75
Unibet (SE)	2.48	3.25	2.75
Virgin Bet	2.48	3.25	2.75
William Hill	2.50	3.00	2.80

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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How the game works →

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 9 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	71% fair 1.40 best 1.36 · BetVictor	29% fair 3.47 best 3.25 · Bet365
2.25	2.01 fair best 1.83 · 1xBet	1.99 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet
2.5	43% fair 2.34 best 2.10 · Betfair Sportsbook	57% fair 1.75 best 1.82 · Betano

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	71% fair 1.40 best 1.36 · BetVictor	29% fair 3.47 best 3.25 · Bet365
1.75	1.51 fair best 1.45 · BetVictor	2.96 fair best 2.59 · 1xBet
2	1.68 fair best 1.57 · BetVictor	2.47 fair best 2.55 · Betano
2.25	2.01 fair best 1.83 · 1xBet	1.99 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet
2.5	43% fair 2.34 best 2.10 · Betfair Sportsbook	57% fair 1.75 best 1.82 · Betano
2.75	2.76 fair best 2.35 · Marathonbet	1.57 fair best 1.51 · BetVictor
3	3.13 fair best 2.89 · 1xBet	1.47 fair best 1.47 · Betano
3.5	22% fair 4.52 best 3.80 · BetVictor	78% fair 1.28 best 1.32 · Betano
4.5	11% fair 9.38 best 8.00 · Bet365	89% fair 1.12 best 1.12 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
68% fair 1.48 best 1.44 · Bet365	69% fair 1.45 best 1.35 · William Hill	64% fair 1.57 best 1.55 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Exeter City	Crewe
−0.5	36% fair 2.81 best 2.45 · Betano	64% fair 1.55 best 1.53 · Betano
−0.25	2.35 fair best 2.12 · 1xBet	1.74 fair best 1.70 · Bet365
0	1.89 fair best 1.80 · Bet365	2.12 fair best 2.05 · Bet365
+0.25	1.60 fair best 1.55 · Bet365	2.65 fair best 2.38 · Bet365
+0.5	69% fair 1.45 best 1.44 · Betano	31% fair 3.20 best 2.77 · Betano

All lines (9)

Line	Exeter City	Crewe
−1	5.42 fair best 4.20 · 1xBet	1.23 fair best 1.23 · Bet365
−0.75	3.62 fair best 3.00 · Bet365	1.38 fair best 1.38 · Bet365
−0.5	36% fair 2.81 best 2.45 · Betano	64% fair 1.55 best 1.53 · Betano
−0.25	2.35 fair best 2.12 · 1xBet	1.74 fair best 1.70 · Bet365
0	1.89 fair best 1.80 · Bet365	2.12 fair best 2.05 · Bet365
+0.25	1.60 fair best 1.55 · Bet365	2.65 fair best 2.38 · Bet365
+0.5	69% fair 1.45 best 1.44 · Betano	31% fair 3.20 best 2.77 · Betano
+0.75	1.31 fair best 1.30 · Bet365	4.19 fair best 3.45 · Bet365
+1	1.17 fair best 1.17 · Bet365	6.82 fair best 5.05 · 1xBet

Goals by team

Exeter City goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	34% fair 2.94 best 2.50 · Marathonbet	66% fair 1.52 best 1.57 · Betano

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	74% fair 1.36 best 1.32 · 1xBet	26% fair 3.81 best 3.60 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5	34% fair 2.94 best 2.50 · Marathonbet	66% fair 1.52 best 1.57 · Betano

Crewe goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	30% fair 3.29 best 2.75 · BetVictor	70% fair 1.44 best 1.47 · Betano

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	72% fair 1.39 best 1.36 · 1xBet	28% fair 3.56 best 3.25 · Bet365
1.5	30% fair 3.29 best 2.75 · BetVictor	70% fair 1.44 best 1.47 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
29% fair 3.47 best 3.20 · 1xBet	45% fair 2.22 best 2.15 · William Hill	26% fair 3.84 best 3.54 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	67% fair 1.49 best 1.47 · Betano	33% fair 3.05 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook
1	2.19 fair best 2.02 · 1xBet	1.84 fair best 1.80 · Betano
1.5	27% fair 3.67 best 3.00 · Betfair Sportsbook	73% fair 1.38 best 1.40 · Bet365

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	67% fair 1.49 best 1.47 · Betano	33% fair 3.05 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook
0.75	1.70 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet	2.43 fair best 2.15 · BetVictor
1	2.19 fair best 2.02 · 1xBet	1.84 fair best 1.80 · Betano
1.25	2.90 fair best 2.50 · 1xBet	1.53 fair best 1.49 · BetVictor
1.5	27% fair 3.67 best 3.00 · Betfair Sportsbook	73% fair 1.38 best 1.40 · Bet365

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
8.5	60% fair 1.67 best 1.62 · 1xBet	40% fair 2.48 best 2.50 · Betano
9	1.89 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet	2.12 fair best 1.91 · 1xBet
9.5	45% fair 2.22 best 2.02 · 1xBet	55% fair 1.82 best 1.98 · Bet365

All lines (7)

Line	Over	Under
8	1.45 fair best 1.41 · 1xBet	3.22 fair best 2.59 · 1xBet
8.5	60% fair 1.67 best 1.62 · 1xBet	40% fair 2.48 best 2.50 · Betano
9	1.89 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet	2.12 fair best 1.91 · 1xBet
9.5	45% fair 2.22 best 2.02 · 1xBet	55% fair 1.82 best 1.98 · Bet365
10	2.57 fair best 2.36 · 1xBet	1.64 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet
10.5	43% fair 2.34 best 2.60 · Marathonbet	57% fair 1.75 best 1.55 · Betano
11	2.80 fair —	1.55 fair —

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	Exeter City	Crewe
−2	2.72 fair best 2.48 · 1xBet	1.58 fair best 1.44 · Marathonbet
−1.5	43% fair 2.31 best 2.11 · Marathonbet	57% fair 1.76 best 1.62 · Marathonbet
−1	2.03 fair best 1.93 · Marathonbet	1.97 fair best 1.76 · Marathonbet
−0.5	55% fair 1.81 best 1.98 · Bet365	45% fair 2.23 best 1.82 · Bet365
0	1.63 fair best 1.59 · Marathonbet	2.59 fair best 2.16 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–114.8%fair 6.75
0–010.9%fair 9.14
1–09.6%fair 10.41
0–18.8%fair 11.32
2–18.1%fair 12.38
1–27.5%fair 13.28

Total goals

011%
118%
228%
321%
4+22%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Exeter City at home, Crewe away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Exeter City	Crewe
Goals scored per game	0.60 (1.10)	1.50 (1.20)
Goals conceded per game	0.50 (1.00)	1.20 (1.20)
Over 2.5 goals	10% (40%)	40% (30%)
Both teams scored	20% (30%)	80% (40%)
Clean sheets	60% (60%)	20% (40%)
Failed to score	50% (40%)	10% (30%)
xG for / against per game	1.23 / 1.15	1.57 / 1.97
Corners for / against per game	4.50 / 4.60	3.90 / 6.70
Cards per game	1.80	1.30

Over 2.5 goals: Exeter City in 10% and Crewe in 40% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 43% for this match.

From 10 matches for Exeter City and 10 for Crewe. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value still active

Detected · Mon, 19 Oct · 08:00 UTC

X Draw · soft 3.25 (Unibet (NL)) · fair 3.20 · edge +1.5%

Opening sharp

3.13

Current Value still active

soft 3.25 · sharp 3.01 · fair 3.20 · edge +1.4%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

Exeter City scored 0.4 and conceded 0.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Crewe scored 1.8 and conceded 1 in 5.

Since opening around 3.13, the sharp market price on Draw has shortened to 3.01 — the market has moved towards this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Crewe has won its last 3 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Crewe here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Exeter City

D W W L D

avg 0.4 scored · 0.2 conceded (last 5)

Crewe

W W W D D

avg 1.8 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.35

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection X · Draw

Odds when flagged 3.25

Fair odds 3.20

Closing odds pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 7abcecdae41ee280

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit