League Two Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC

Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town

Fair price as of 17:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 18:20 UTC
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The sharp market makes Fleetwood Town the most likely outcome at 40% — fair odds of 2.47. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Cheltenham: LLLWD; Fleetwood Town: WDLLL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on Fleetwood Town anyway? The best price we see is 2.48 at Virgin Bet, +0.4% against the fair odds of 2.47. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 72%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	31%	28%	40%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	34%	28%	38%
Our model	42%	29%	30%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 1 hour ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.39

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.75 / 3.35 / 2.50

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 2.95 / 3.50 / 2.40

Market Gap —

Confidence —

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 34 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	3.20	3.54	2.47
Pinnacle sharp	3.00	3.30	2.35
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	3.10	3.55	2.38
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	3.10	3.55	2.38
Matchbook exchange	3.10	3.60	2.38
Smarkets exchange	3.05	3.55	2.34
Betfair Sportsbook	2.80	3.60 ★	2.38
Coral	3.00 ★	3.50	2.30
Virgin Bet	2.65	3.45	2.48 ★

Show all 34 bookmakers

1xBet	2.83	3.32	2.36
888sport	2.80	3.25	2.30
BetOnline.ag	2.92	3.20	2.32
BetVictor	2.88	3.40	2.38
Betano (UK)	2.88	3.40	2.38
Betfred (UK)	2.75	3.40	2.38
Betsson	2.95	3.30	2.25
Betway	2.90	3.30	2.30
BoyleSports	2.80	3.25	2.25
Casumo	2.60	3.35	2.40
Codere (IT)	2.80	3.30	2.25
Coolbet	2.80	3.50	2.35
Grosvenor	2.55	3.30	2.38
Ladbrokes	2.90	3.50	2.30
LeoVegas	2.88	3.40	2.30
LeoVegas (SE)	2.55	3.30	2.38
LiveScore Bet	2.55	3.30	2.38
Marathonbet	2.80	3.32	2.34
Nordic Bet	2.95	3.30	2.25
Paddy Power	2.80	3.50	2.38
Sky Bet	2.75	3.40	2.30
Tipico	2.95	3.40	2.10
Unibet (NL)	2.60	3.35	2.40
Unibet (SE)	2.60	3.35	2.40
Unibet (UK)	2.90	3.40	2.30
William Hill	2.80	3.25	2.30

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 10 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	79% fair 1.27 best 1.26 · Betano	21% fair 4.67 best 4.20 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	53% fair 1.89 best 1.80 · Bet365	47% fair 2.12 best 2.05 · Betfair Sportsbook
3.5	30% fair 3.29 best 3.00 · Bet365	70% fair 1.44 best 1.40 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (8)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	79% fair 1.27 best 1.26 · Betano	21% fair 4.67 best 4.20 · Betfair Sportsbook
2	1.41 fair best 1.39 · BetVictor	3.43 fair best 2.89 · 1xBet
2.25	1.65 fair best 1.57 · 1xBet	2.55 fair best 2.30 · 1xBet
2.5	53% fair 1.89 best 1.80 · Bet365	47% fair 2.12 best 2.05 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.75	2.13 fair best 1.97 · 1xBet	1.89 fair best 1.77 · 1xBet
3	2.54 fair best 2.35 · Betano	1.65 fair best 1.57 · Betano
3.5	30% fair 3.29 best 3.00 · Bet365	70% fair 1.44 best 1.40 · Betfair Sportsbook
4.5	15% fair 6.81 best 5.75 · BetVictor	85% fair 1.17 best 1.15 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
60% fair 1.68 best 1.62 · Betano	72% fair 1.39 best 1.33 · William Hill	69% fair 1.45 best 1.42 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Cheltenham	Fleetwood Town
−0.25	2.77 fair best 2.42 · Bet365	1.57 fair best 1.52 · Bet365
0	2.29 fair best 2.10 · Bet365	1.78 fair best 1.71 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.87 fair best 1.80 · Bet365	2.15 fair best 2.05 · Bet365
+0.5	60% fair 1.66 best 1.62 · Betano	40% fair 2.52 best 2.30 · Bet365
+0.75	1.48 fair best 1.42 · Bet365	3.10 fair best 2.75 · Bet365

All lines (10)

Line	Cheltenham	Fleetwood Town
−1	5.65 fair best 5.00 · Bet365	1.22 fair best 1.17 · Bet365
−0.75	4.19 fair best 3.45 · Bet365	1.31 fair best 1.30 · Bet365
−0.5	31% fair 3.25 best 2.85 · Bet365	69% fair 1.44 best 1.40 · Bet365
−0.25	2.77 fair best 2.42 · Bet365	1.57 fair best 1.52 · Bet365
0	2.29 fair best 2.10 · Bet365	1.78 fair best 1.71 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.87 fair best 1.80 · Bet365	2.15 fair best 2.05 · Bet365
+0.5	60% fair 1.66 best 1.62 · Betano	40% fair 2.52 best 2.30 · Bet365
+0.75	1.48 fair best 1.42 · Bet365	3.10 fair best 2.75 · Bet365
+1	1.30 fair best 1.27 · Bet365	4.32 fair best 3.70 · BetVictor
+1.25	1.25 fair best 1.23 · Bet365	5.02 fair best 4.11 · 1xBet

Goals by team

Cheltenham goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	36% fair 2.75 best 2.50 · Bet365	64% fair 1.57 best 1.57 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	76% fair 1.32 best 1.32 · Betano	24% fair 4.10 best 3.80 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5	36% fair 2.75 best 2.50 · Bet365	64% fair 1.57 best 1.57 · Betfair Sportsbook

Fleetwood Town goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	43% fair 2.33 best 2.13 · 1xBet	57% fair 1.75 best 1.70 · Betano

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	80% fair 1.25 best 1.24 · Betano	20% fair 4.94 best 4.00 · Bet365
1.5	43% fair 2.33 best 2.13 · 1xBet	57% fair 1.75 best 1.70 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
27% fair 3.74 best 3.50 · 1xBet	41% fair 2.42 best 2.25 · William Hill	32% fair 3.14 best 3.00 · BetVictor

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73% fair 1.37 best 1.40 · Betano	27% fair 3.67 best 3.30 · Betfair Sportsbook
1	1.80 fair best 1.82 · Betano	2.25 fair best 2.01 · 1xBet
1.5	34% fair 2.96 best 2.70 · Betano	66% fair 1.51 best 1.46 · BetVictor

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73% fair 1.37 best 1.40 · Betano	27% fair 3.67 best 3.30 · Betfair Sportsbook
0.75	1.51 fair best 1.48 · BetVictor	2.97 fair best 2.53 · 1xBet
1	1.80 fair best 1.82 · Betano	2.25 fair best 2.01 · 1xBet
1.25	2.37 fair best 2.14 · 1xBet	1.73 fair best 1.62 · BetVictor
1.5	34% fair 2.96 best 2.70 · Betano	66% fair 1.51 best 1.46 · BetVictor

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
9.5	57% fair 1.76 best 1.75 · Betano	43% fair 2.32 best 2.09 · Marathonbet
10	1.97 fair best 2.02 · Bet365	2.04 fair best 1.82 · 1xBet
10.5	45% fair 2.23 best 2.25 · Betano	55% fair 1.81 best 1.68 · Marathonbet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
9	1.55 fair best 1.49 · 1xBet	2.80 fair best 2.39 · 1xBet
9.5	57% fair 1.76 best 1.75 · Betano	43% fair 2.32 best 2.09 · Marathonbet
10	1.97 fair best 2.02 · Bet365	2.04 fair best 1.82 · 1xBet
10.5	45% fair 2.23 best 2.25 · Betano	55% fair 1.81 best 1.68 · Marathonbet
11	2.63 fair best 2.46 · 1xBet	1.61 fair best 1.46 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	Cheltenham	Fleetwood Town
−1	2.66 fair best 2.30 · 1xBet	1.60 fair best 1.53 · Marathonbet
−0.5	44% fair 2.27 best 1.95 · Bet365	56% fair 1.79 best 1.85 · Bet365
0	2.03 fair best 1.85 · Marathonbet	1.97 fair best 1.83 · Marathonbet
+0.5	55% fair 1.83 —	45% fair 2.21 —
+1	1.65 fair best 1.56 · Marathonbet	2.53 fair best 2.26 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–113.4%fair 7.45
1–28.9%fair 11.24
2–17.7%fair 13.01
0–07.7%fair 13.02
0–17.7%fair 13.06
0–26.9%fair 14.54

Total goals

08%
114%
225%
322%
4+31%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Cheltenham at home, Fleetwood Town away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Cheltenham	Fleetwood Town
Goals scored per game	1.40 (1.50)	1.20 (1.00)
Goals conceded per game	1.80 (1.90)	1.10 (1.30)
Over 2.5 goals	60% (80%)	30% (40%)
Both teams scored	70% (80%)	60% (60%)
Clean sheets	0% (10%)	30% (10%)
Failed to score	30% (10%)	10% (30%)
xG for / against per game	1.22 / 1.75	1.56 / 1.75
Corners for / against per game	4.10 / 6.20	5.30 / 5.80
Cards per game	2.50	2.70

Over 2.5 goals: Cheltenham in 60% and Fleetwood Town in 30% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 53% for this match.

From 10 matches for Cheltenham and 10 for Fleetwood Town. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

The last 4 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–1–2 (Cheltenham wins – draws – Fleetwood Town wins).

Cheltenham scored 0.8 and conceded 2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Fleetwood Town scored 1 and conceded 1.4 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Cheltenham has lost its last 3 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Cheltenham here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Cheltenham

L L L W D

avg 0.8 scored · 2 conceded (last 5)

Fleetwood Town

W D L L L

avg 1 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)

Recent head-to-head

10 Mar 2026 Fleetwood Town 2–2 Cheltenham

04 Oct 2025 Cheltenham 2–0 Fleetwood Town

08 Feb 2025 Fleetwood Town 2–0 Cheltenham

28 Sep 2024 Cheltenham 0–2 Fleetwood Town

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Tue, 13 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.31

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 99bb278bf17ac1a3

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit