← All value matches › UEFA Champions League

UEFA Champions League Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC

FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven

Fair price as of 14:35 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 18:35 UTC
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The sharp market makes FC Porto the most likely outcome at 62% — fair odds of 1.61. 1xBet offers 1.63, a market gap of +1.2% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Micro-edge). Confidence is High and model agreement is Low. Recent form — FC Porto: LWWWL; PSV Eindhoven: LLWLW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity Micro-edge

1 FC Porto @ 1.63

Bookmaker 1xBet

Price observed Mon, 19 Oct · 14:34 UTC

Flag recorded Sat, 17 Oct · 22:00 UTC @ 1.74 (Unibet (NL)) · recorded live, before kick-off

Market 1X2 (match result)

Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.

Fair price 1.61

1xBet 1.63

Confidence: High

Edge at detection +4% @ 1.74 · 17 Oct

Edge right now +1.2% @ 1.63 · 1 hour ago

The gap has narrowed since detection — the sharp market moved toward the soft price. The number above is the edge that is actually left right now, not the one we flagged.

Market discrepancy: FC Porto (1) is priced at 1.63 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 1.61 — a +1.2% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

The gap is smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We log it for transparency, but it is not a strong signal.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

1 Home win 56%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	62%	20%	18%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	56%	21%	23%
Our model	49%	23%	27%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 1 hour ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.78

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.73 / 4.32 / 4.08

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 1.63 / 4.80 / 5.60

Market Gap +1.2%

Confidence High

Model agreement Low

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 39 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	1.61	5.09	5.47
Pinnacle sharp	1.60	4.63	5.15
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	1.64	4.70	5.40
1xBet	1.63 ★	4.77	5.18
BetAnything	1.62	4.72	4.80
BetOnline.ag	1.62	4.72	4.80
Unibet (NL)	1.57	4.60	5.60 ★
Unibet (SE)	1.57	4.60	5.60 ★
Winamax (DE)	1.54	4.80 ★	4.70

Show all 39 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	1.64	4.70	5.40
Matchbook exchange	1.64	4.70	5.40
Smarkets exchange	1.62	4.60	5.40
888sport	1.57	4.40	4.75
BetVictor	1.55	4.50	5.25
Betclic (FR)	1.52	4.35	4.95
Betfair Sportsbook	1.60	4.50	5.00
Betfred (UK)	1.60	4.33	5.00
Betsson	1.58	4.45	5.25
Betway	1.57	4.50	5.00
BoyleSports	1.57	4.20	5.00
Casumo	1.50	4.10	4.90
Codere (IT)	1.60	4.40	5.00
Coolbet	1.61	4.70	5.30
Coral	1.61	4.33	5.00
GTbets	1.61	4.54	5.13
Grosvenor	1.55	4.35	5.25
Ladbrokes	1.60	4.33	4.80
LeoVegas	1.57	4.30	4.90
LeoVegas (SE)	1.55	4.35	5.25
LiveScore Bet	1.53	4.35	5.20
Marathonbet	1.59	4.65	5.05
Nordic Bet	1.58	4.50	5.35
PMU (FR)	1.50	4.10	4.90
Paddy Power	1.57	4.40	5.00
Sky Bet	1.57	4.33	5.00
Unibet (FR)	1.50	4.30	4.70
Unibet (UK)	1.58	4.35	5.00
Virgin Bet	1.53	4.35	5.20
William Hill	1.57	4.40	4.75
Winamax (FR)	1.52	4.60	4.50

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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Team news

FC Porto

Out William Gomes · injury started 8 of 8 team matches this season
Out D. Prpic · other reason
Out Gabriel Mec · other reason
Out V. Sousa · injury

PSV Eindhoven

Doubtful G. Til · injury started 9 of 9 team matches this season
Out R. Pepi · injury started 6 of 9 team matches this season
Out P. Wanner · injury started 4 of 9 team matches this season
Out A. Plea · other reason started 0 of 9 team matches this season
Out K. Sildillia · other reason started 0 of 9 team matches this season
Out A. Nagalo · injury
Out J. Schouten · injury
Out S. Lammers · other reason
Out S. Ouaissa · injury

Absences as reported by API-Football; the list can be incomplete, and doubtful players may still play. The market usually knows about an absence before it appears here.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 7 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	64% fair 1.56 best 1.55 · Betano	36% fair 2.79 best 2.55 · Betano
3	1.87 fair best 1.85 · SBO	2.15 fair best 2.02 · Betano
3.5	41% fair 2.43 best 2.40 · 1xBet	59% fair 1.70 best 1.67 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
2	1.23 fair best 1.23 · BetVictor	5.29 fair best 4.00 · 1xBet
2.25	1.39 fair best 1.36 · BetVictor	3.55 fair best 2.95 · 1xBet
2.5	64% fair 1.56 best 1.55 · Betano	36% fair 2.79 best 2.55 · Betano
2.75	1.68 fair best 1.64 · SBO	2.48 fair best 2.28 · SBO
3	1.87 fair best 1.85 · SBO	2.15 fair best 2.02 · Betano
3.25	2.15 fair best 2.13 · 1xBet	1.87 fair best 1.83 · 1xBet
3.5	41% fair 2.43 best 2.40 · 1xBet	59% fair 1.70 best 1.67 · 1xBet
3.75	2.88 fair best 2.60 · Marathonbet	1.53 fair best 1.46 · Marathonbet
4	3.63 fair best 3.20 · 1xBet	1.38 fair best 1.32 · BetVictor

Double chance

1X	12	X2
82% fair 1.22 best 1.21 · 1xBet	80% fair 1.24 best 1.23 · 1xBet	38% fair 2.64 best 2.36 · Marathonbet

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	FC Porto	PSV Eindhoven
−1.5	37% fair 2.70 best 2.65 · 1xBet	63% fair 1.59 best 1.57 · 1xBet
−1.25	2.37 fair best 2.30 · 1xBet	1.73 fair best 1.65 · SBO
−1	2.04 fair best 2.04 · SBO	1.96 fair best 1.85 · Betano
−0.75	1.78 fair best 1.78 · Bet365	2.28 fair best 2.12 · SBO
−0.5	62% fair 1.62 best 1.62 · Betano	38% fair 2.61 best 2.37 · Betano

All lines (10)

Line	FC Porto	PSV Eindhoven
−2	4.44 fair best 4.00 · BetVictor	1.29 fair best 1.24 · Bet365
−1.75	3.31 fair best 3.41 · 1xBet	1.43 fair best 1.38 · 1xBet
−1.5	37% fair 2.70 best 2.65 · 1xBet	63% fair 1.59 best 1.57 · 1xBet
−1.25	2.37 fair best 2.30 · 1xBet	1.73 fair best 1.65 · SBO
−1	2.04 fair best 2.04 · SBO	1.96 fair best 1.85 · Betano
−0.75	1.78 fair best 1.78 · Bet365	2.28 fair best 2.12 · SBO
−0.5	62% fair 1.62 best 1.62 · Betano	38% fair 2.61 best 2.37 · Betano
−0.25	1.46 fair best 1.42 · Marathonbet	3.16 fair best 2.75 · Bet365
0	1.29 fair best 1.26 · Bet365	4.40 fair best 3.75 · BetVictor
+0.25	1.27 fair best 1.21 · Bet365	4.70 fair best 4.25 · Bet365

Goals by team

FC Porto goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	64% fair 1.55 best 1.53 · Bet365	36% fair 2.80 best 2.56 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	64% fair 1.55 best 1.53 · Bet365	36% fair 2.80 best 2.56 · 1xBet
2.5	35% fair 2.85 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook	65% fair 1.54 best 1.51 · 1xBet

PSV Eindhoven goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	69% fair 1.45 best 1.42 · Betano	31% fair 3.24 best 2.90 · Marathonbet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	69% fair 1.45 best 1.42 · Betano	31% fair 3.24 best 2.90 · Marathonbet
1.5	30% fair 3.32 best 3.00 · Bet365	70% fair 1.43 best 1.43 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
46% fair 2.20 best 2.15 · SBO	36% fair 2.76 best 2.57 · 1xBet	18% fair 5.49 best 5.00 · Betfair Sportsbook

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	1.96 fair best 1.93 · SBO	2.04 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet
1.5	42% fair 2.40 best 2.30 · Betano	58% fair 1.72 best 1.71 · 1xBet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.38 fair best 1.34 · BetVictor	3.66 fair best 3.36 · 1xBet
1	1.54 fair best 1.55 · Betano	2.85 fair best 2.72 · 1xBet
1.25	1.96 fair best 1.93 · SBO	2.04 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet
1.5	42% fair 2.40 best 2.30 · Betano	58% fair 1.72 best 1.71 · 1xBet
1.75	3.05 fair best 2.58 · 1xBet	1.49 fair best 1.51 · 1xBet

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
9.5	53% fair 1.88 best 1.85 · Betano	47% fair 2.13 best 2.00 · Bet365
10	2.13 fair best 1.95 · 1xBet	1.89 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet
10.5	41% fair 2.42 best 2.35 · Betano	59% fair 1.71 best 1.60 · 1xBet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
9	1.65 fair best 1.49 · 1xBet	2.54 fair best 2.26 · 1xBet
9.5	53% fair 1.88 best 1.85 · Betano	47% fair 2.13 best 2.00 · Bet365
10	2.13 fair best 1.95 · 1xBet	1.89 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet
10.5	41% fair 2.42 best 2.35 · Betano	59% fair 1.71 best 1.60 · 1xBet
11	2.94 fair best 2.45 · 1xBet	1.52 fair best 1.42 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	FC Porto	PSV Eindhoven
−2.5	39% fair 2.55 best 2.38 · 1xBet	61% fair 1.65 best 1.50 · 1xBet
−2	2.29 fair best 2.11 · Marathonbet	1.78 fair best 1.85 · Bet365
−1.5	49% fair 2.04 best 1.90 · 1xBet	51% fair 1.97 best 2.00 · Betano
−1	1.80 fair best 1.72 · Marathonbet	2.25 fair best 1.98 · Marathonbet
−0.5	61% fair 1.65 —	39% fair 2.55 —

Cards (bookings)

Line	Over	Under
3.5	70% fair 1.44 best 1.47 · Betano	30% fair 3.29 best 2.55 · Betano
4.5	50% fair 2.01 best 1.98 · Betano	50% fair 1.99 best 1.83 · 1xBet
5.5	33% fair 3.03 best 2.75 · Betano	67% fair 1.49 best 1.42 · Betano

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
3.5	70% fair 1.44 best 1.47 · Betano	30% fair 3.29 best 2.55 · Betano
4	1.62 fair —	2.62 fair —
4.5	50% fair 2.01 best 1.98 · Betano	50% fair 1.99 best 1.83 · 1xBet
5	2.51 fair —	1.66 fair —
5.5	33% fair 3.03 best 2.75 · Betano	67% fair 1.49 best 1.42 · Betano

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

2–19.8%fair 10.19
1–18.9%fair 11.28
2–08.8%fair 11.32
1–08.1%fair 12.35
3–17.2%fair 13.92
3–06.5%fair 15.46

Total goals

04%
112%
220%
322%
4+42%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: FC Porto at home, PSV Eindhoven away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	FC Porto	PSV Eindhoven
Goals scored per game	2.20 (1.40)	2.60 (2.30)
Goals conceded per game	0.90 (0.50)	1.20 (1.50)
Over 2.5 goals	60% (20%)	70% (80%)
Both teams scored	50% (30%)	80% (80%)
Clean sheets	40% (60%)	10% (10%)
Failed to score	10% (20%)	10% (10%)
xG for / against per game	1.93 / 1.12	2.41 / 1.53
Corners for / against per game	5.70 / 3.90	6.50 / 3.50
Cards per game	1.20	1.80

Over 2.5 goals: FC Porto in 60% and PSV Eindhoven in 70% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 64% for this match.

From 10 matches for FC Porto and 10 for PSV Eindhoven. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value still active

Detected · Sat, 17 Oct · 22:00 UTC

1 FC Porto · soft 1.74 (Unibet (NL)) · fair 1.67 · edge +4%

Opening sharp

1.73

Current Value still active

soft 1.63 · sharp 1.58 · fair 1.61 · edge +1.2%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

FC Porto scored 2.2 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; PSV Eindhoven scored 1.8 and conceded 1.4 in 5.

Since opening around 1.73, the sharp market price on FC Porto has shortened to 1.58 — the market has moved towards this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

FC Porto is averaging 2.2 goals scored over its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on FC Porto here.

PSV Eindhoven has lost its last 2 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on PSV Eindhoven here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

FC Porto

L W W W L

avg 2.2 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

PSV Eindhoven

L L W L W

avg 1.8 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1 · Home win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.73

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · FC Porto

Odds when flagged 1.63

Fair odds 1.61

Closing odds pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 37428ed4e1560c05

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit