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UEFA Champions League predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every UEFA Champions League fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)
How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated at

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time Match 1X2 Value
GalatasarayVfB Stuttgart
 45% 2.27 fair 2.24 +1.2% 23% 4.26 fair 4.39 33% 3.00 fair 3.07 Micro-edge
Shakhtar DonetskSporting CP
 26% 3.82 fair 3.77 25% 3.92 fair 4.03 49% 2.02 fair 2.05 Value expired
Manchester UnitedAS Roma
 41% 2.43 fair 2.42 +0.5% 24% 4.07 fair 4.24 35% 2.80 fair 2.85 Micro-edge
Bodo/GlimtLille
 54% 1.92 fair 1.86 +2.9% 23% 4.20 fair 4.39 24% 4.10 fair 4.24 Value flag
Lask LinzSlovan Bratislava
 70% 1.45 fair 1.42 +1.9% 17% 5.55 fair 6.01 13% 7.50 fair 7.66 Value flag
BarcelonaAston Villa
 79% 1.29 fair 1.27 +1.7% 12% 8.00 fair 8.33 9% 11.40 fair 11.00 Value flag
VillarrealParis Saint Germain
 20% 5.50 fair 5.08 20% 4.90 fair 4.97 60% 1.65 fair 1.66 Value expired
FeyenoordInter
 25% 4.07 fair 4.05 22% 4.37 fair 4.48 53% 1.88 fair 1.89 Value expired
FenerbahçeLiverpool
 17% 5.75 fair 5.89 20% 4.75 fair 5.01 63% 1.61 fair 1.59 +1.5% Value flag
LensComo
 32% 3.10 fair 3.11 24% 4.10 fair 4.23 44% 2.27 fair 2.26 Value expired
VikingSabah FA
 67% 1.51 fair 1.49 +1.1% 18% 5.18 fair 5.43 15% 6.62 fair 6.83 Micro-edge
Borussia DortmundReal Betis
 56% 1.80 fair 1.78 +1.0% 22% 4.30 fair 4.45 21% 4.70 fair 4.67 Micro-edge
Slavia PrahaArsenal
 8% 11.50 fair 11.96 15% 6.53 fair 6.88 77% 1.32 fair 1.30 +1.7% Value flag
FC PortoNapoli
 49% 2.06 fair 2.04 +0.8% 25% 3.90 fair 4.07 26% 3.80 fair 3.78 Micro-edge
PSV EindhovenClub Brugge KV
 47% 2.13 fair 2.12 21% 4.50 fair 4.72 32% 3.20 fair 3.17 +1.0% Micro-edge
RB LeipzigManchester City
 18% 5.54 fair 5.66 19% 4.93 fair 5.18 63% 1.62 fair 1.59 +2.0% Value flag

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

DateMatchScoreMarket gave this result
Bayern München – Arsenal 2–2 25%
Real Betis – Feyenoord 1–0 56%
Sporting CP – Lask Linz 2–3 10%
Real Madrid – RB Leipzig 4–1 80%
Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 78%
Club Brugge KV – Lens 3–0 56%
Aston Villa – Viking 3–1 —
Como – Manchester United 4–1 40%
Lille – Galatasaray 2–4 35%
VfB Stuttgart – Atletico Madrid 1–1 24%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on UEFA Champions League

Across the matches we priced in UEFA Champions League, the market's average 1X2 margin is 5.77%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is 1xBet at 1.94%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

1xBet → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of . We read it again after matches finish.

# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris Saint Germain 3 3 0 0 14 5 +9 9
2 Aston Villa 3 3 0 0 12 3 +9 9
3 Liverpool 3 3 0 0 12 7 +5 9
4 Real Madrid 3 3 0 0 10 5 +5 9
5 Real Betis 3 3 0 0 7 4 +3 9
6 VfB Stuttgart 3 2 1 0 7 2 +5 7
7 Arsenal 3 2 1 0 6 2 +4 7
8 Barcelona 3 2 0 1 11 6 +5 6
9 Como 3 2 0 1 10 5 +5 6
10 Manchester City 3 2 0 1 9 5 +4 6
11 Club Brugge KV 3 2 0 1 9 6 +3 6
12 Sporting CP 3 2 0 1 7 4 +3 6
13 Borussia Dortmund 3 2 0 1 5 4 +1 6
14 Bayern München 3 1 2 0 10 5 +5 5
15 AS Roma 3 1 1 1 8 5 +3 4
16 Atletico Madrid 3 1 1 1 4 3 +1 4
17 Shakhtar Donetsk 3 1 1 1 4 3 +1 4
18 PSV Eindhoven 3 1 1 1 2 2 +0 4
19 Villarreal 3 1 0 2 8 8 +0 3
20 Inter 3 1 0 2 5 6 -1 3
21 Manchester United 3 1 0 2 5 6 -1 3
22 Napoli 3 1 0 2 5 7 -2 3
23 Galatasaray 3 1 0 2 6 9 -3 3
24 Lask Linz 3 1 0 2 6 9 -3 3
25 Sabah FA 3 1 0 2 3 6 -3 3
26 Feyenoord 3 1 0 2 4 8 -4 3
27 Lens 3 1 0 2 3 7 -4 3
28 Bodo/Glimt 3 1 0 2 4 9 -5 3
29 AEK Athens FC 3 1 0 2 3 8 -5 3
30 RB Leipzig 3 1 0 2 3 8 -5 3
31 Fenerbahçe 3 0 2 1 3 9 -6 2
32 Slavia Praha 3 0 1 2 4 7 -3 1
33 Viking 3 0 1 2 5 9 -4 1
34 FC Porto 3 0 0 3 2 6 -4 0
35 Lille 3 0 0 3 4 10 -6 0
36 Slovan Bratislava 3 0 0 3 1 13 -12 0

Team stats this season

144 matches this season: 3.27 goals per game, 60% over 2.5, 57% both teams scored. xG 3.62 per match (from 43 matches); 9.5 corners and 4.1 cards per match (from 141 matches with statistics).

TeamMPGFGA Over 2.5BTTSClean sheets xG for / against CornersCards
Paris Saint Germain 34.671.67 100%100%0% — 9.00.3
Liverpool 34.002.33 100%100%0% 2.46 / 1.52 11.70.3
Aston Villa 34.001.00 100%67%33% 3.03 / 1.42 13.01.0
Barcelona 33.672.00 100%100%0% — 5.70.7
Como 33.331.67 100%100%0% — 5.72.0
Real Madrid 33.331.67 100%100%0% — 12.31.0
Bayern München 33.331.67 100%67%33% — 12.31.7
Club Brugge KV 33.002.00 100%67%33% 2.84 / 3.11 7.73.0
Villarreal 32.672.67 100%100%0% 1.45 / 2.39 11.02.3
Galatasaray 32.003.00 100%100%0% 1.12 / 2.17 6.02.0
Viking 52.002.40 100%100%0% — 12.62.0
Aarhus 41.502.25 100%50%25% — 11.32.8
Lille 31.333.33 100%67%0% 1.05 / 1.78 7.72.0
Bodo/Glimt 72.142.14 86%57%29% — 8.71.0
Dinamo Zagreb 62.171.50 83%83%17% — 11.52.0
Lask Linz 52.002.60 80%60%0% 1.31 / 2.78 12.22.2
Lyon 41.501.25 75%75%25% — 9.50.8
Larne 40.752.50 75%25%25% — 6.81.3
Manchester City 33.001.67 67%67%33% 2.58 / 1.12 10.31.7
AS Roma 32.671.67 67%67%33% — 9.01.7
Real Betis 32.331.33 67%67%33% 1.87 / 0.89 8.02.7
Sporting CP 32.331.33 67%67%33% 2.25 / 1.39 8.31.3
VfB Stuttgart 32.330.67 67%67%33% — 10.31.3
Arsenal 32.000.67 67%33%67% — 7.01.7
Manchester United 31.672.00 67%33%33% — 7.02.0
Inter 31.672.00 67%67%33% — 10.73.3
Napoli 31.672.33 67%67%0% — 7.02.7
Borussia Dortmund 31.671.33 67%67%0% 2.47 / 1.36 14.31.0
Feyenoord 31.332.67 67%67%0% — 6.31.7
Slavia Praha 31.332.33 67%67%0% — 10.71.3
RB Leipzig 31.002.67 67%67%33% — 10.71.7
Lens 31.002.33 67%33%0% — 10.01.7
Sabah FA 111.731.18 64%46%46% — 10.01.8
AEK Athens FC 51.401.60 60%40%60% 1.35 / 1.65 8.01.6
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 42.751.50 50%100%0% — 10.02.8
FK Crvena Zvezda 42.250.75 50%0%50% — 7.81.8
Shamrock Rovers 41.751.50 50%50%0% — 10.02.5
Universitatea Craiova 41.751.00 50%50%25% — 8.01.3
Hapoel Beer Sheva 61.671.00 50%50%50% — 9.53.7
Ararat-Armenia 61.501.33 50%50%33% — 11.52.2
Saburtalo 41.501.75 50%75%0% — 10.03.0
Vikingur Reykjavik 41.251.25 50%50%25% — 9.02.0
KI Klaksvik 41.000.75 50%50%25% — 5.32.5
Lincoln Red Imps FC 41.001.25 50%50%25% — 11.52.3
Kauno Žalgiris 61.001.67 50%50%33% — 8.51.7
Mjallby AIF 41.001.00 50%25%50% — 8.82.5
NEC Nijmegen 40.501.75 50%50%25% — 7.32.0
Slovan Bratislava 91.111.89 44%56%22% — 8.11.9
Levski Sofia 81.250.88 38%25%63% — 9.01.6
Celje 61.501.33 33%83%17% — 10.73.3
Atletico Madrid 31.331.00 33%67%33% 1.10 / 1.40 10.71.0
Shakhtar Donetsk 31.331.00 33%67%0% — 7.33.0
Fenerbahçe 91.221.33 33%56%33% — 9.92.4
FC Porto 30.672.00 33%33%0% 0.93 / 1.92 6.01.3
Sturm Graz 41.500.75 25%0%50% — 11.31.8
Kairat Almaty 60.830.67 17%17%33% — 10.31.8
PSV Eindhoven 30.670.67 0%33%33% — 9.72.3
KuPS 40.501.25 0%0%25% — 11.02.5

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best UEFA Champions League predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for UEFA Champions League is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every UEFA Champions League fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer UEFA Champions League betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each UEFA Champions League match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit

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