← All value matches › UEFA Champions League

UEFA Champions League Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid

Fair price as of 14:35 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 18:35 UTC
Check my slip

The sharp market makes Atletico Madrid the most likely outcome at 46% — fair odds of 2.17. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — VfB Stuttgart: LWWLL; Atletico Madrid: WWWWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

Edge at detection +1% @ 2.35 · 15 Oct

Edge right now No value at the current price 29 minutes ago

We flagged +1% on 2 on 15 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on Atletico Madrid anyway? The best price we see is 2.17 at 1xBet, -0.1% against the fair odds of 2.17. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 75%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	30%	24%	46%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	32%	25%	43%
Our model	40%	25%	36%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 29 minutes ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.33

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.93 / 3.82 / 2.24

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 3.35 / 3.95 / 2.17

Market Gap —

Confidence —

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 39 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	3.39	4.09	2.17
Pinnacle sharp	3.26	3.91	2.12
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	3.35	3.90	2.22
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	3.35	3.90	2.22
Matchbook exchange	3.35	3.90	2.22
Smarkets exchange	3.35	3.90	2.20
1xBet	3.33	3.94	2.17 ★
Unibet (NL)	3.35 ★	3.95 ★	2.14
Unibet (SE)	3.35 ★	3.95 ★	2.14

Show all 39 bookmakers

888sport	3.10	3.60	2.05
BetAnything	3.33	3.83	2.11
BetOnline.ag	3.33	3.83	2.11
BetVictor	3.12	3.90	2.10
Betclic (FR)	2.97	3.78	2.05
Betfair Sportsbook	3.25	3.75	2.15
Betfred (UK)	3.10	3.75	2.10
Betsson	3.20	3.75	2.12
Betway	3.10	3.80	2.10
BoyleSports	3.20	3.80	2.05
Casumo	3.05	3.55	1.97
Codere (IT)	3.15	3.75	2.15
Coolbet	3.32	3.85	2.16
Coral	3.10	3.80	2.05
GTbets	3.22	3.73	2.11
Grosvenor	3.20	3.70	2.06
Ladbrokes	3.00	3.80	2.05
LeoVegas	3.05	3.65	2.12
LeoVegas (SE)	3.20	3.70	2.06
LiveScore Bet	3.15	3.65	2.05
Marathonbet	3.24	3.84	2.11
Nordic Bet	3.25	3.80	2.15
PMU (FR)	3.05	3.55	1.97
Paddy Power	3.10	3.70	2.10
Sky Bet	3.10	3.60	2.10
Unibet (FR)	3.00	3.60	2.00
Unibet (UK)	3.10	3.70	2.15
Virgin Bet	3.15	3.65	2.05
William Hill	3.10	3.60	2.05
Winamax (DE)	3.10	3.85	2.05
Winamax (FR)	3.00	3.75	2.00

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

Beat the closing line

Which way will the market move before kick-off? Pick and score your closing line value. Free, no money.

Picking needs a free account: an email address, no card.

How the game works →

Team news

VfB Stuttgart

Doubtful M. Mittelstadt · injury started 5 of 6 team matches this season
Out L. Stergiou · other reason started 0 of 6 team matches this season
Doubtful N. Nartey · injury started 0 of 6 team matches this season
Out A. Al Dakhil · injury
Out J. Diehl · injury
Out S. Drljaca · other reason
Doubtful D. Zagadou · injury
Doubtful T. Tomas · injury

Atletico Madrid

Out Koke · injury started 4 of 9 team matches this season
Out J. Cardoso · illness started 3 of 9 team matches this season

Absences as reported by API-Football; the list can be incomplete, and doubtful players may still play. The market usually knows about an absence before it appears here.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 6 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	64% fair 1.56 best 1.53 · Bet365	36% fair 2.78 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
3.25	2.14 fair best 2.13 · 1xBet	1.88 fair best 1.83 · 1xBet
3.5	41% fair 2.41 best 2.38 · 1xBet	59% fair 1.71 best 1.68 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
2	1.23 fair best 1.23 · BetVictor	5.34 fair best 4.05 · 1xBet
2.25	1.39 fair best 1.36 · BetVictor	3.54 fair best 2.94 · 1xBet
2.5	64% fair 1.56 best 1.53 · Bet365	36% fair 2.78 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.75	1.69 fair best 1.64 · SBO	2.46 fair best 2.28 · SBO
3	1.87 fair best 1.84 · SBO	2.15 fair best 2.05 · Betano
3.25	2.14 fair best 2.13 · 1xBet	1.88 fair best 1.83 · 1xBet
3.5	41% fair 2.41 best 2.38 · 1xBet	59% fair 1.71 best 1.68 · 1xBet
3.75	2.81 fair best 2.60 · Marathonbet	1.55 fair best 1.46 · Marathonbet
4	3.56 fair best 3.20 · 1xBet	1.39 fair best 1.32 · BetVictor

Double chance

1X	12	X2
54% fair 1.85 best 1.78 · Betano	76% fair 1.32 best 1.30 · 1xBet	70% fair 1.42 best 1.38 · 1xBet

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	VfB Stuttgart	Atletico Madrid
−0.25	3.03 fair best 2.85 · Bet365	1.49 fair best 1.51 · 1xBet
0	2.57 fair best 2.49 · 1xBet	1.64 fair best 1.63 · 1xBet
+0.25	2.08 fair best 2.01 · SBO	1.92 fair best 1.87 · SBO
+0.5	55% fair 1.82 best 1.78 · Betano	45% fair 2.21 best 2.12 · SBO
+0.75	1.63 fair best 1.58 · Bet365	2.59 fair best 2.35 · Bet365

All lines (9)

Line	VfB Stuttgart	Atletico Madrid
−0.75	4.44 fair best 4.00 · Bet365	1.29 fair best 1.23 · 1xBet
−0.5	29% fair 3.50 best 3.30 · Bet365	71% fair 1.40 best 1.39 · Betano
−0.25	3.03 fair best 2.85 · Bet365	1.49 fair best 1.51 · 1xBet
0	2.57 fair best 2.49 · 1xBet	1.64 fair best 1.63 · 1xBet
+0.25	2.08 fair best 2.01 · SBO	1.92 fair best 1.87 · SBO
+0.5	55% fair 1.82 best 1.78 · Betano	45% fair 2.21 best 2.12 · SBO
+0.75	1.63 fair best 1.58 · Bet365	2.59 fair best 2.35 · Bet365
+1	1.43 fair best 1.42 · Betano	3.31 fair best 3.00 · Betano
+1.25	1.37 fair best 1.32 · Bet365	3.73 fair best 3.30 · Bet365

Goals by team

VfB Stuttgart goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	42% fair 2.37 best 2.20 · Bet365	58% fair 1.73 best 1.69 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	79% fair 1.27 best 1.25 · Bet365	21% fair 4.74 best 3.80 · 1xBet
1.5	42% fair 2.37 best 2.20 · Bet365	58% fair 1.73 best 1.69 · 1xBet

Atletico Madrid goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	54% fair 1.86 best 1.74 · 1xBet	46% fair 2.16 best 2.10 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	54% fair 1.86 best 1.74 · 1xBet	46% fair 2.16 best 2.10 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	26% fair 3.92 best 3.40 · Bet365	74% fair 1.34 best 1.33 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
28% fair 3.58 best 3.62 · 1xBet	37% fair 2.68 best 2.50 · William Hill	35% fair 2.88 best 2.60 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	1.95 fair best 1.91 · SBO	2.06 fair best 1.95 · 1xBet
1.5	42% fair 2.39 best 2.25 · Betano	58% fair 1.72 best 1.70 · 1xBet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.36 fair best 1.35 · BetVictor	3.74 fair best 3.18 · 1xBet
1	1.52 fair best 1.53 · Betano	2.92 fair best 2.62 · 1xBet
1.25	1.95 fair best 1.91 · SBO	2.06 fair best 1.95 · 1xBet
1.5	42% fair 2.39 best 2.25 · Betano	58% fair 1.72 best 1.70 · 1xBet
1.75	3.01 fair best 2.61 · 1xBet	1.50 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
8.5	64% fair 1.56 best 1.44 · Marathonbet	36% fair 2.79 best 2.65 · Betano
9.5	52% fair 1.91 best 1.78 · Marathonbet	48% fair 2.09 best 2.02 · Betano
10.5	41% fair 2.47 best 2.25 · Marathonbet	59% fair 1.68 best 1.62 · 1xBet

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
8.5	64% fair 1.56 best 1.44 · Marathonbet	36% fair 2.79 best 2.65 · Betano
9	1.69 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet	2.46 fair best 2.31 · 1xBet
9.5	52% fair 1.91 best 1.78 · Marathonbet	48% fair 2.09 best 2.02 · Betano
10	2.17 fair best 2.02 · Betano	1.85 fair best 1.83 · 1xBet
10.5	41% fair 2.47 best 2.25 · Marathonbet	59% fair 1.68 best 1.62 · 1xBet
11	2.90 fair best 2.39 · 1xBet	1.53 fair best 1.44 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	VfB Stuttgart	Atletico Madrid
−1	2.76 fair best 2.30 · 1xBet	1.57 fair best 1.52 · 1xBet
−0.5	43% fair 2.32 —	57% fair 1.76 —
0	2.05 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet	1.95 fair best 1.81 · 1xBet
+0.5	55% fair 1.83 best 1.90 · Bet365	45% fair 2.21 best 1.90 · Bet365
+1	1.66 fair best 1.58 · 1xBet	2.52 fair best 2.17 · 1xBet

All lines (6)

Line	VfB Stuttgart	Atletico Madrid
−1	2.76 fair best 2.30 · 1xBet	1.57 fair best 1.52 · 1xBet
−0.5	43% fair 2.32 —	57% fair 1.76 —
0	2.05 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet	1.95 fair best 1.81 · 1xBet
+0.5	55% fair 1.83 best 1.90 · Bet365	45% fair 2.21 best 1.90 · Bet365
+1	1.66 fair best 1.58 · 1xBet	2.52 fair best 2.17 · 1xBet
+1.5	60% fair 1.67 best 1.47 · Marathonbet	40% fair 2.49 best 2.55 · 1xBet

Cards (bookings)

Line	Over	Under
3.5	60% fair 1.66 best 1.75 · Betano	40% fair 2.51 best 2.05 · Betano
4	2.00 fair —	2.00 fair —
4.5	40% fair 2.51 best 2.42 · Betano	60% fair 1.66 best 1.62 · Bet365

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
3	1.37 fair —	3.72 fair —
3.5	60% fair 1.66 best 1.75 · Betano	40% fair 2.51 best 2.05 · Betano
4	2.00 fair —	2.00 fair —
4.5	40% fair 2.51 best 2.42 · Betano	60% fair 1.66 best 1.62 · Bet365
5	3.49 fair —	1.40 fair —

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–110.8%fair 9.23
1–29.1%fair 10.94
2–17.2%fair 13.91
2–26.6%fair 15.05
0–26.3%fair 15.90
0–15.9%fair 17.05

Total goals

05%
110%
221%
322%
4+42%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: VfB Stuttgart at home, Atletico Madrid away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	VfB Stuttgart	Atletico Madrid
Goals scored per game	1.80 (1.80)	2.00 (1.50)
Goals conceded per game	1.40 (1.00)	1.00 (1.40)
Over 2.5 goals	70% (50%)	80% (70%)
Both teams scored	40% (60%)	50% (50%)
Clean sheets	30% (20%)	40% (30%)
Failed to score	30% (20%)	10% (20%)
xG for / against per game	1.95 / 2.17	1.71 / 1.14
Corners for / against per game	6.30 / 4.60	5.80 / 3.60
Cards per game	1.20	2.10

Over 2.5 goals: VfB Stuttgart in 70% and Atletico Madrid in 80% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 64% for this match.

From 10 matches for VfB Stuttgart and 10 for Atletico Madrid. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

VfB Stuttgart scored 1.2 and conceded 0.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Atletico Madrid scored 2.2 and conceded 0.4 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Atletico Madrid has won its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Atletico Madrid here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

VfB Stuttgart

L W W L L

avg 1.2 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)

Atletico Madrid

W W W W W

avg 2.2 scored · 0.4 conceded (last 5)

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Wed, 14 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.27

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint f9a3d6ec20b11fa7

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit