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Copa Sudamericana

Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors

The sharp market makes Vasco DA Gama the most likely outcome at 37% — fair odds of 2.71. 1xBet offers 2.75, a market gap of +1.6% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Value flag). Confidence is Low and model agreement is Medium. Recent form — Vasco DA Gama: LWDWW; Boca Juniors: WLDWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity Value flag

1 Vasco DA Gama @ 2.75
Bookmaker 1xBet
Price observed
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.
Fair price 2.71
1xBet 2.75
Confidence: Low

Market discrepancy: Vasco DA Gama (1) is priced at 2.75 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.71 — a +1.6% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 70%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp now37%30%34%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded37%30%33%
Our model45%27%29%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.43
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.59 / 3.16 / 2.84
Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 2.75 / 3.35 / 2.89
Market Gap +1.6%
Confidence Low
Model agreement Medium

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 22 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 2.713.382.98
Pinnacle sharp 2.58 3.19 2.83
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange 2.62 3.20 3.00
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange 2.62 3.20 3.00
Smarkets exchange 2.60 3.30 2.96
1xBet 2.75 ★ 3.22 2.89 ★
888sport 2.50 3.00 2.75
Betfred (UK) 2.50 3.10 2.62
Coolbet 2.60 3.35 ★ 2.78
Show all 22 bookmakers
Casumo 2.55 3.05 2.80
Codere (IT) 2.50 3.15 2.85
Coral 2.40 2.90 2.75
LeoVegas 2.50 3.15 2.80
LeoVegas (SE) 2.43 2.90 2.70
LiveScore Bet 2.43 2.90 2.70
Nordic Bet 2.55 3.00 2.80
PMU (FR) 2.43 2.90 2.70
Paddy Power 2.50 3.10 2.62
Sky Bet 2.45 3.00 2.60
Unibet (FR) 2.25 3.00 2.75
Unibet (NL) 2.55 3.05 2.80
Virgin Bet 2.43 2.90 2.70
William Hill 2.50 3.00 2.75

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 4 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 69% fair 1.44 best 1.47 · Betano 31% fair 3.27 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.25 2.08 fair best 2.04 · 1xBet 1.92 fair best 1.89 · 1xBet
2.5 41% fair 2.43 best 2.37 · Betano 59% fair 1.70 best 1.69 · 1xBet
All lines (7)
Line OverUnder
1.5 69% fair 1.44 best 1.47 · Betano 31% fair 3.27 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.75 1.56 fair best 1.46 · 1xBet 2.79 fair best 2.42 · 1xBet
2 1.75 fair best 1.78 · Betano 2.34 fair best 2.10 · Betano
2.25 2.08 fair best 2.04 · 1xBet 1.92 fair best 1.89 · 1xBet
2.5 41% fair 2.43 best 2.37 · Betano 59% fair 1.70 best 1.69 · 1xBet
2.75 2.91 fair best 2.57 · Marathonbet 1.52 fair best 1.42 · Marathonbet
3.5 20% fair 4.94 best 4.50 · Betfair Sportsbook 80% fair 1.25 best 1.22 · Betano

Double chance
1X12X2
66% fair 1.50 best 1.47 · 1xBet 70% fair 1.42 best 1.40 · 1xBet 63% fair 1.59 best 1.53 · Bet365

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line Vasco DA GamaBoca Juniors
−0.5 36% fair 2.78 best 2.62 · Betano 64% fair 1.56 best 1.55 · Bet365
−0.25 2.34 fair best 2.29 · 1xBet 1.75 fair best 1.71 · 1xBet
0 1.90 fair best 1.91 · 1xBet 2.11 fair best 2.05 · Bet365
+0.25 1.63 fair best 1.58 · Bet365 2.59 fair best 2.35 · Bet365
+0.5 68% fair 1.48 best 1.47 · Betano 32% fair 3.09 best 2.75 · Betano
All lines (10)
Line Vasco DA GamaBoca Juniors
−1.25 5.66 fair best 5.10 · Marathonbet 1.21 fair best 1.19 · Bet365
−1 5.23 fair best 4.55 · 1xBet 1.24 fair best 1.23 · Bet365
−0.75 3.55 fair best 3.10 · 1xBet 1.39 fair best 1.38 · Bet365
−0.5 36% fair 2.78 best 2.62 · Betano 64% fair 1.56 best 1.55 · Bet365
−0.25 2.34 fair best 2.29 · 1xBet 1.75 fair best 1.71 · 1xBet
0 1.90 fair best 1.91 · 1xBet 2.11 fair best 2.05 · Bet365
+0.25 1.63 fair best 1.58 · Bet365 2.59 fair best 2.35 · Bet365
+0.5 68% fair 1.48 best 1.47 · Betano 32% fair 3.09 best 2.75 · Betano
+0.75 1.33 fair best 1.30 · Bet365 4.06 fair best 3.45 · Bet365
+1 1.18 fair best 1.15 · Bet365 6.49 fair best 5.50 · Bet365

Goals by team

Vasco DA Gama goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 33% fair 3.08 best 2.77 · Betano 67% fair 1.48 best 1.46 · 1xBet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 72% fair 1.39 best 1.40 · Betano 28% fair 3.57 best 3.10 · Marathonbet
1.5 33% fair 3.08 best 2.77 · Betano 67% fair 1.48 best 1.46 · 1xBet

Boca Juniors goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 70% fair 1.43 best 1.40 · Bet365 30% fair 3.35 best 2.99 · Marathonbet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 70% fair 1.43 best 1.40 · Bet365 30% fair 3.35 best 2.99 · Marathonbet
1.5 29% fair 3.43 best 3.00 · Bet365 71% fair 1.41 best 1.42 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1X2
29% fair 3.49 best 3.40 · Betano 45% fair 2.21 best 2.05 · William Hill 26% fair 3.85 best 3.75 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 67% fair 1.49 best 1.57 · Betano 33% fair 3.03 best 2.70 · William Hill
1 2.22 fair best 2.32 · Betano 1.82 fair best 1.67 · 1xBet
1.5 27% fair 3.72 best 3.50 · Betano 73% fair 1.37 best 1.33 · William Hill
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.5 67% fair 1.49 best 1.57 · Betano 33% fair 3.03 best 2.70 · William Hill
0.75 1.71 fair best 1.67 · 1xBet 2.41 fair best 2.09 · 1xBet
1 2.22 fair best 2.32 · Betano 1.82 fair best 1.67 · 1xBet
1.25 2.95 fair best 2.60 · 1xBet 1.51 fair best 1.42 · 1xBet
1.5 27% fair 3.72 best 3.50 · Betano 73% fair 1.37 best 1.33 · William Hill

Corners

Total corners

Line OverUnder
8.5 57% fair 1.75 best 1.67 · Bet365 43% fair 2.33 best 2.14 · Marathonbet
9 1.97 fair best 1.95 · Bet365 2.03 fair best 1.85 · Bet365
9.5 45% fair 2.25 best 2.15 · Betano 55% fair 1.80 best 1.68 · 1xBet
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
8 1.54 fair — 2.85 fair —
8.5 57% fair 1.75 best 1.67 · Bet365 43% fair 2.33 best 2.14 · Marathonbet
9 1.97 fair best 1.95 · Bet365 2.03 fair best 1.85 · Bet365
9.5 45% fair 2.25 best 2.15 · Betano 55% fair 1.80 best 1.68 · 1xBet
10 2.67 fair — 1.60 fair —

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line Vasco DA GamaBoca Juniors
−1 2.66 fair best 2.55 · 1xBet 1.60 fair best 1.49 · Marathonbet
−0.5 43% fair 2.31 best 1.90 · Bet365 57% fair 1.76 best 1.90 · Bet365
0 2.09 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet 1.92 fair best 1.80 · Marathonbet
+0.5 53% fair 1.88 — 47% fair 2.14 —
+1 1.66 fair best 1.56 · Marathonbet 2.52 fair best 2.34 · 1xBet
All lines (8)
Line Vasco DA GamaBoca Juniors
−2 2.84 fair best 2.75 · 1xBet 1.54 fair best 1.41 · Marathonbet
−1.5 41% fair 2.41 best 2.52 · Marathonbet 59% fair 1.71 best 1.41 · Marathonbet
−1 2.66 fair best 2.55 · 1xBet 1.60 fair best 1.49 · Marathonbet
−0.5 43% fair 2.31 best 1.90 · Bet365 57% fair 1.76 best 1.90 · Bet365
0 2.09 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet 1.92 fair best 1.80 · Marathonbet
+0.5 53% fair 1.88 — 47% fair 2.14 —
+1 1.66 fair best 1.56 · Marathonbet 2.52 fair best 2.34 · 1xBet
+1.5 64% fair 1.55 best 1.46 · Marathonbet 36% fair 2.80 best 2.65 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–113.9%fair 7.19
  2. 1–011.0%fair 9.13
  3. 0–010.4%fair 9.58
  4. 0–110.3%fair 9.73
  5. 2–17.9%fair 12.63
  6. 1–27.5%fair 13.41

Total goals

  • 010%
  • 121%
  • 227%
  • 321%
  • 4+21%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Vasco DA Gama at home, Boca Juniors away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesVasco DA GamaBoca Juniors
Goals scored per game 1.50 (1.50) 1.70 (1.50)
Goals conceded per game 0.50 (0.60) 0.80 (1.30)
Over 2.5 goals 40% (40%) 50% (50%)
Both teams scored 30% (20%) 50% (60%)
Clean sheets 50% (60%) 40% (20%)
Failed to score 40% (40%) 10% (20%)
xG for / against per game 1.72 / 0.82 1.65 / 0.74
Corners for / against per game 6.70 / 4.70 5.00 / 3.10
Cards per game 2.10 2.10

Over 2.5 goals: Vasco DA Gama in 40% and Boca Juniors in 50% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 41% for this match.

From 10 matches for Vasco DA Gama and 10 for Boca Juniors. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value still active

Detected
The flag recorded for this match was on 2; this outcome was not recorded as a flag.
Opening sharp
2.59
Current Value still active
soft 2.75 · sharp 2.58 · fair 2.71 · edge +1.6%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

The last 1 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–0–0 (Vasco DA Gama wins – draws – Boca Juniors wins).

Vasco DA Gama scored 1.6 and conceded 0.4 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Boca Juniors scored 1.8 and conceded 0.8 in 5.

The sharp market price on Vasco DA Gama has barely moved since opening (2.59 to 2.58) — no significant new information has repriced this match.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Vasco DA Gama
L W D W W
avg 1.6 scored · 0.4 conceded (last 5)
Boca Juniors
W L D W W
avg 1.8 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
14 Oct 2026 Boca Juniors 0–1 Vasco DA Gama

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.35
Closing odds pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Vasco DA Gama
Odds when flagged 2.75
Fair odds 2.71
Closing odds pending
Value CLV —
Profit (units) —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 53d4b04d11895d3f

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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