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Liga MX

CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
  • Line-ups usually from
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The sharp market makes Cruz Azul the most likely outcome at 43% — fair odds of 2.35. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — CF Pachuca: LDLDW; Cruz Azul: WDDLW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value
Edge at detection +2.1% @ 2.40 ·
Edge right now No value at the current price

We flagged +2.1% on 2 on 19 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on Cruz Azul anyway? The best price we see is 2.36 at GTbets, +0.4% against the fair odds of 2.35. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 74%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp now32%26%43%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded35%26%39%
Our model33%26%41%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.34
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.71 / 3.63 / 2.41
Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 2.98 / 3.67 / 2.36
Market Gap —
Confidence —
Prediction result Pending

Prices across 34 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 3.143.912.35
Pinnacle sharp 2.98 3.67 2.26
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange 2.94 3.75 2.30
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange 2.94 3.75 2.30
Matchbook exchange 2.96 3.80 2.30
Smarkets exchange 2.92 3.70 2.24
1xBet 2.86 3.45 2.27
BetOnline.ag 2.98 ★ 3.67 ★ 2.26
GTbets 2.82 3.54 2.36 ★
Show all 34 bookmakers
888sport 2.80 3.30 2.15
BetVictor 2.80 3.50 2.25
Betano (UK) 2.80 3.50 2.25
Betclic (FR) 2.80 3.45 2.17
Betfair Sportsbook 2.80 3.60 2.30
Betfred (UK) 2.62 3.40 2.20
Betsson 2.85 3.45 2.25
Betway 2.90 3.60 2.20
BoyleSports 2.70 3.50 2.10
Casumo 2.85 3.40 2.25
Coolbet 2.85 3.60 2.30
Grosvenor 2.85 3.40 2.25
LeoVegas 2.75 3.50 2.20
LeoVegas (SE) 2.75 3.30 2.17
LiveScore Bet 2.75 3.35 2.20
Marathonbet 2.84 3.45 2.25
Nordic Bet 2.85 3.45 2.25
PMU (FR) 2.65 3.20 2.10
Paddy Power 2.75 3.50 2.25
Sky Bet 2.70 3.40 2.20
Tipico 2.90 3.50 2.15
Unibet (NL) 2.85 3.40 2.25
Unibet (SE) 2.85 3.40 2.25
Unibet (UK) 2.88 3.60 2.25
Virgin Bet 2.75 3.35 2.20
William Hill 2.80 3.30 2.15

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 15 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
2.5 58% fair 1.71 best 1.70 · Bet365 42% fair 2.41 best 2.16 · 1xBet
2.75 1.88 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet 2.14 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet
3.5 36% fair 2.77 best 2.62 · Bet365 64% fair 1.56 best 1.44 · Bet365
All lines (8)
Line OverUnder
1.5 82% fair 1.22 best 1.22 · Bet365 18% fair 5.63 best 4.33 · BetVictor
2.25 1.51 fair best 1.48 · BetVictor 2.97 fair best 2.57 · 1xBet
2.5 58% fair 1.71 best 1.70 · Bet365 42% fair 2.41 best 2.16 · 1xBet
2.75 1.88 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet 2.14 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet
3 2.15 fair best 2.04 · BetVictor 1.87 fair best 1.67 · 1xBet
3.25 2.46 fair best 2.29 · BetVictor 1.68 fair best 1.53 · BetVictor
3.5 36% fair 2.77 best 2.62 · Bet365 64% fair 1.56 best 1.44 · Bet365
4.5 19% fair 5.39 best 5.00 · Bet365 81% fair 1.23 best 1.17 · Bet365

Double chance
1X12X2
57% fair 1.74 best 1.57 · Bet365 74% fair 1.34 best 1.30 · William Hill 68% fair 1.47 best 1.41 · 1xBet

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line CF PachucaCruz Azul
−0.5 34% fair 2.95 best 2.75 · Bet365 66% fair 1.51 best 1.42 · Bet365
−0.25 2.53 fair best 2.38 · Bet365 1.65 fair best 1.56 · 1xBet
0 2.13 fair best 2.08 · Bet365 1.88 fair best 1.75 · 1xBet
+0.25 1.82 fair best 1.78 · Bet365 2.23 fair best 2.02 · Bet365
+0.5 61% fair 1.63 best 1.60 · Bet365 39% fair 2.58 best 2.30 · Bet365
All lines (9)
Line CF PachucaCruz Azul
−1 5.27 fair best 4.65 · Bet365 1.23 fair best 1.18 · Bet365
−0.75 3.67 fair best 3.45 · Bet365 1.37 fair best 1.30 · Bet365
−0.5 34% fair 2.95 best 2.75 · Bet365 66% fair 1.51 best 1.42 · Bet365
−0.25 2.53 fair best 2.38 · Bet365 1.65 fair best 1.56 · 1xBet
0 2.13 fair best 2.08 · Bet365 1.88 fair best 1.75 · 1xBet
+0.25 1.82 fair best 1.78 · Bet365 2.23 fair best 2.02 · Bet365
+0.5 61% fair 1.63 best 1.60 · Bet365 39% fair 2.58 best 2.30 · Bet365
+0.75 1.46 fair best 1.45 · Bet365 3.16 fair best 2.76 · BetVictor
+1 1.30 fair best 1.27 · Bet365 4.32 fair best 3.60 · BetVictor

Goals by team

CF Pachuca goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 42% fair 2.37 best 2.25 · Bet365 58% fair 1.73 best 1.61 · 1xBet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 79% fair 1.26 best 1.28 · Bet365 21% fair 4.78 best 3.74 · Marathonbet
1.5 42% fair 2.37 best 2.25 · Bet365 58% fair 1.73 best 1.61 · 1xBet

Cruz Azul goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 46% fair 2.18 best 2.05 · BetVictor 54% fair 1.85 best 1.73 · Bet365
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
1.5 46% fair 2.18 best 2.05 · BetVictor 54% fair 1.85 best 1.73 · Bet365
2.5 19% fair 5.25 best 4.40 · BetVictor 81% fair 1.24 best 1.20 · Bet365

First half

First-half result

1X2
29% fair 3.46 best 3.30 · BetVictor 39% fair 2.54 best 2.30 · Bet365 32% fair 3.14 best 3.00 · BetVictor

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
1.25 2.13 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet 1.89 fair best 1.72 · BetVictor
1.5 38% fair 2.62 best 2.50 · Bet365 62% fair 1.62 best 1.52 · BetVictor
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.75 1.43 fair best 1.42 · BetVictor 3.34 fair best 2.70 · 1xBet
1 1.64 fair best 1.61 · 1xBet 2.56 fair best 2.19 · 1xBet
1.25 2.13 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet 1.89 fair best 1.72 · BetVictor
1.5 38% fair 2.62 best 2.50 · Bet365 62% fair 1.62 best 1.52 · BetVictor
1.75 3.44 fair best 2.95 · 1xBet 1.41 fair best 1.36 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–111.8%fair 8.46
  2. 1–29.0%fair 11.09
  3. 2–17.7%fair 13.04
  4. 0–17.1%fair 14.17
  5. 0–26.5%fair 15.47
  6. 2–26.3%fair 15.90

Total goals

  • 06%
  • 113%
  • 223%
  • 322%
  • 4+36%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: CF Pachuca at home, Cruz Azul away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesCF PachucaCruz Azul
Goals scored per game 1.50 (1.70) 2.20 (1.90)
Goals conceded per game 1.40 (1.60) 1.80 (1.50)
Over 2.5 goals 50% (50%) 70% (70%)
Both teams scored 60% (70%) 60% (90%)
Clean sheets 20% (20%) 20% (0%)
Failed to score 20% (10%) 20% (10%)
xG for / against per game 1.26 / 1.83 2.08 / 1.32
Corners for / against per game 5.20 / 3.90 5.90 / 5.80
Cards per game 3.30 2.10

Over 2.5 goals: CF Pachuca in 50% and Cruz Azul in 70% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 58% for this match.

From 10 matches for CF Pachuca and 10 for Cruz Azul. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

The last 2 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–0–1 (CF Pachuca wins – draws – Cruz Azul wins).

CF Pachuca scored 1.8 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Cruz Azul scored 3 and conceded 2 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Cruz Azul is averaging 3 goals scored over its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Cruz Azul here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

CF Pachuca
L D L D W
avg 1.8 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)
Cruz Azul
W D D L W
avg 3 scored · 2 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
05 Apr 2026 Cruz Azul 1–2 CF Pachuca
13 Sep 2025 CF Pachuca 0–1 Cruz Azul

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.28
Closing odds pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 840294cf72659dc9

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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