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Liga MX predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Liga MX fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)
How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated at

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time Match 1X2 Value
FC JuarezClub Queretaro
 32% 3.10 fair 3.13 26% 3.65 fair 3.81 42% 2.30 fair 2.39 Value expired
Atletico San LuisAtlas
 36% 2.65 fair 2.77 27% 3.60 fair 3.69 37% 2.80 fair 2.72 +3.0% Strong value
PueblaU.N.A.M. - Pumas
 32% 2.97 fair 3.13 28% 3.46 fair 3.61 40% 2.38 fair 2.48 No value
CF PachucaTigres UANL
 43% 2.40 fair 2.34 +2.5% 27% 3.52 fair 3.71 30% 3.16 fair 3.30 Value flag
Guadalajara ChivasAtlante FC
 66% 1.51 fair 1.51 19% 4.77 fair 5.20 14% 6.34 fair 6.92 No value
Santos LagunaNecaxa
 51% 1.89 fair 1.95 23% 4.10 fair 4.37 26% 3.76 fair 3.85 No value
Cruz AzulLeon
 58% 1.68 fair 1.72 22% 4.28 fair 4.62 20% 4.75 fair 4.96 Value expired

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

DateMatchScoreMarket gave this result
Club Tijuana – Santos Laguna 4–1 45%
Club America – CF Pachuca 1–2 19%
Club Queretaro – Cruz Azul 1–3 50%
Atlas – Puebla 4–3 62%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas – Tigres UANL 1–1 26%
Monterrey – Guadalajara Chivas 0–1 53%
Leon – Toluca 1–1 25%
Atlante FC – Atletico San Luis 0–1 29%
Necaxa – FC Juarez 1–1 24%
Santos Laguna – U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–0 39%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Liga MX

Across the matches we priced in Liga MX, the market's average 1X2 margin is 8.64%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is BetOnline.ag at 3.81%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

BetOnline.ag → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of . We read it again after matches finish.

# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Club America 13 8 3 2 33 18 +15 27
2 Cruz Azul 14 8 2 4 32 23 +9 26
3 Guadalajara Chivas 14 7 5 2 21 12 +9 26
4 Atlas 14 7 3 4 25 26 -1 24
5 Toluca 14 6 5 3 29 19 +10 23
6 Leon 14 6 4 4 21 18 +3 22
7 Monterrey 13 6 2 5 23 18 +5 20
8 Club Tijuana 13 5 5 3 21 17 +4 20
9 Club Queretaro 13 6 2 5 17 18 -1 20
10 Santos Laguna 14 6 1 7 20 20 +0 19
11 Atletico San Luis 14 5 4 5 19 22 -3 19
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 14 4 5 5 20 23 -3 17
13 CF Pachuca 14 4 4 6 22 19 +3 16
14 Puebla 14 4 4 6 16 21 -5 16
15 Tigres UANL 14 3 6 5 15 19 -4 15
16 Atlante FC 14 3 5 6 14 20 -6 14
17 Necaxa 14 2 4 8 16 27 -11 10
18 FC Juarez 14 1 2 11 9 33 -24 5

Team stats this season

124 matches this season: 2.98 goals per game, 52% over 2.5, 61% both teams scored. xG 2.80 per match (from 103 matches); 11.1 corners and 4.0 cards per match (from 124 matches with statistics).

TeamMPGFGA Over 2.5BTTSClean sheets xG for / against CornersCards
Cruz Azul 142.291.64 79%71%14% 2.06 / 1.26 11.22.0
Club America 132.541.38 69%69%31% 1.87 / 1.28 12.01.9
CF Pachuca 141.571.36 64%64%21% 1.15 / 1.77 9.63.1
Atletico San Luis 141.361.57 64%64%14% 0.94 / 1.46 9.71.1
Toluca 141.931.29 57%64%36% 1.58 / 1.01 12.11.6
Santos Laguna 141.431.43 57%43%29% 1.67 / 1.47 11.71.9
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 141.431.64 57%64%7% 1.08 / 1.33 9.91.6
Necaxa 141.141.93 57%79%0% 1.73 / 1.26 10.92.4
Monterrey 131.771.31 54%62%23% 1.54 / 1.25 9.81.9
Club Tijuana 131.621.31 54%62%31% 1.78 / 0.91 11.91.6
Atlas 141.791.86 50%71%21% 1.38 / 1.77 11.82.1
FC Juarez 140.642.36 50%50%7% 0.87 / 2.07 11.22.9
Club Queretaro 131.231.23 46%46%39% 1.42 / 1.72 11.53.0
Leon 141.431.29 36%64%29% 1.46 / 1.45 10.12.2
Puebla 141.141.50 36%57%21% 0.92 / 1.36 11.11.4
Tigres UANL 141.071.36 36%57%29% 1.35 / 1.44 11.41.9
Atlante FC 141.001.43 36%57%14% 1.13 / 1.31 11.12.0
Guadalajara Chivas 141.500.86 29%43%43% 1.40 / 0.99 12.41.3

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

# Team Avg. finish P(title) P(relegation)
1 Club Queretaro 2.5 37.9% 0%
2 Club America 3.1 28% 0%
3 Guadalajara Chivas 4 13.2% 0%
4 Atlas 5 8.3% 0.1%
5 Toluca 5.5 6.1% 0.1%
6 Cruz Azul 6.6 3% 0.4%
7 Leon 7.3 1.9% 0.2%
8 Club Tijuana 8 1.1% 1.6%
9 Puebla 10.9 0.3% 8%
10 Monterrey 11 0% 8.2%
11 CF Pachuca 11.3 0.2% 11.2%
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 11.8 0% 16.1%
13 Tigres UANL 12.1 0% 16.5%
14 Santos Laguna 12.5 0.1% 20.1%
15 Atletico San Luis 12.8 0% 23.5%
16 Atlante FC 12.9 0% 24.4%
17 Necaxa 15.9 0% 71.8%
18 FC Juarez 17.7 0% 97.8%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Liga MX predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Liga MX is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Liga MX fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Liga MX betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Liga MX match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit

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