← All value matches › UEFA Europa League

UEFA Europa League Thu, 22 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC

OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen

Fair price as of 09:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 16:20 UTC
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The sharp market makes Bayer Leverkusen the most likely outcome at 80% — fair odds of 1.24. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — OFI: LLLDW; Bayer Leverkusen: WWWWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

A gap of +2.1% on 2 was seen on a price that has not been re-read in the last 90 minutes, so we do not flag it: it may no longer be on offer. Price last seen 6 hours ago

Betting on Bayer Leverkusen anyway? The best price we see is 1.28 at Unibet (NL), +2.9% against the fair odds of 1.24. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

2 Away win 78%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	7%	12%	80%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	8%	13%	78%
Our model	17%	22%	60%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 6 hours ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.27

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 9.84 / 6.43 / 1.25

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 13.00 / 6.80 / 1.27

Market Gap —

Confidence —

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 36 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	13.40	8.26	1.24
Pinnacle sharp	10.69	6.87	1.22
1xBet	12.40	6.74	1.25
Betsson	13.00 ★	6.70	1.21
Casumo	10.50	6.00	1.26
Codere (IT)	11.00	6.80 ★	1.23
Nordic Bet	13.00 ★	6.80 ★	1.22
Unibet (NL)	11.00	6.25	1.28 ★
Unibet (SE)	11.00	6.25	1.28 ★

Show all 36 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	12.00	7.00	1.25
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	12.00	7.00	1.25
Matchbook exchange	11.00	7.00	1.25
Smarkets exchange	11.49	7.00	1.25
888sport	11.00	6.00	1.22
BetOnline.ag	10.75	6.65	1.22
BetVictor	11.00	6.50	1.18
Betano (UK)	11.00	6.50	1.18
Betclic (FR)	9.50	6.00	1.18
Betfred (UK)	11.00	6.50	1.22
Betway	9.00	6.50	1.22
BoyleSports	9.50	6.00	1.22
Coolbet	11.00	6.50	1.24
Coral	9.50	6.50	1.25
Grosvenor	9.50	5.75	1.24
Ladbrokes	9.50	6.50	1.25
LeoVegas	10.00	6.50	1.22
LeoVegas (SE)	9.50	5.75	1.25
LiveScore Bet	9.00	5.60	1.22
Marathonbet	12.25	6.65	1.23
PMU (FR)	9.00	5.40	1.21
Paddy Power	11.00	6.50	1.20
Sky Bet	9.00	5.75	1.20
Unibet (FR)	9.50	6.00	1.16
Virgin Bet	9.00	5.60	1.24
William Hill	11.00	6.00	1.22
Winamax (DE)	9.00	6.75	1.21
Winamax (FR)	9.00	6.50	1.20

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 11 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	72% fair 1.39 best 1.36 · Bet365	28% fair 3.56 best 3.20 · Bet365
3.5	50% fair 2.01 best 1.96 · 1xBet	50% fair 1.99 best 1.92 · 1xBet
4.5	29% fair 3.48 best 3.13 · BetVictor	71% fair 1.40 best 1.40 · Bet365

All lines (10)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	89% fair 1.12 best 1.10 · Bet365	11% fair 9.45 best 7.50 · BetVictor
2.5	72% fair 1.39 best 1.36 · Bet365	28% fair 3.56 best 3.20 · Bet365
2.75	1.52 fair best 1.41 · 1xBet	2.92 fair best 2.72 · 1xBet
3	1.57 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet	2.75 fair best 2.43 · 1xBet
3.25	1.79 fair best 1.77 · 1xBet	2.27 fair best 2.15 · 1xBet
3.5	50% fair 2.01 best 1.96 · 1xBet	50% fair 1.99 best 1.92 · 1xBet
3.75	2.28 fair best 2.10 · Marathonbet	1.78 fair best 1.68 · Marathonbet
4	2.74 fair best 2.43 · 1xBet	1.58 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet
4.5	29% fair 3.48 best 3.13 · BetVictor	71% fair 1.40 best 1.40 · Bet365
5.5	15% fair 6.84 best 5.75 · BetVictor	85% fair 1.17 best 1.17 · Bet365

Double chance

1X	12	X2
20% fair 5.11 best 4.33 · Marathonbet	88% fair 1.14 best 1.14 · Bet365	93% fair 1.08 best 1.06 · Bet365

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	OFI	Bayer Leverkusen
+1.5	40% fair 2.50 best 2.31 · 1xBet	60% fair 1.67 best 1.67 · 1xBet
+1.75	2.20 fair best 2.07 · 1xBet	1.83 fair best 1.82 · 1xBet
+2	1.91 fair best 1.78 · Bet365	2.10 fair best 2.02 · Bet365
+2.25	1.70 fair best 1.62 · Bet365	2.43 fair best 2.25 · Bet365
+2.5	64% fair 1.57 best 1.50 · Bet365	36% fair 2.76 best 2.50 · Bet365

All lines (10)

Line	OFI	Bayer Leverkusen
+0.75	4.22 fair best 3.60 · 1xBet	1.31 fair best 1.27 · Bet365
+1	4.08 fair best 3.35 · BetVictor	1.32 fair best 1.32 · Bet365
+1.25	3.02 fair best 2.73 · 1xBet	1.50 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet
+1.5	40% fair 2.50 best 2.31 · 1xBet	60% fair 1.67 best 1.67 · 1xBet
+1.75	2.20 fair best 2.07 · 1xBet	1.83 fair best 1.82 · 1xBet
+2	1.91 fair best 1.78 · Bet365	2.10 fair best 2.02 · Bet365
+2.25	1.70 fair best 1.62 · Bet365	2.43 fair best 2.25 · Bet365
+2.5	64% fair 1.57 best 1.50 · Bet365	36% fair 2.76 best 2.50 · Bet365
+2.75	1.42 fair best 1.40 · Bet365	3.38 fair best 2.91 · BetVictor
+3	1.28 fair best 1.27 · Bet365	4.58 fair best 3.55 · Bet365

Goals by team

OFI goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58% fair 1.74 best 1.72 · 1xBet	42% fair 2.35 best 2.20 · Bet365

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58% fair 1.74 best 1.72 · 1xBet	42% fair 2.35 best 2.20 · Bet365
1.5	19% fair 5.13 best 4.70 · Marathonbet	81% fair 1.24 best 1.22 · Bet365

Bayer Leverkusen goals

Line	Over	Under
2.5	54% fair 1.84 best 1.78 · Marathonbet	46% fair 2.19 best 2.03 · Marathonbet

All lines (3)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	81% fair 1.24 best 1.25 · 1xBet	19% fair 5.13 best 3.90 · BetVictor
2.5	54% fair 1.84 best 1.78 · Marathonbet	46% fair 2.19 best 2.03 · Marathonbet
3.5	29% fair 3.45 best 3.00 · Bet365	71% fair 1.41 best 1.40 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
9% fair 10.54 best 8.70 · 1xBet	29% fair 3.51 best 3.00 · Bet365	62% fair 1.61 best 1.62 · William Hill

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	48% fair 2.10 best 2.00 · William Hill	52% fair 1.91 best 1.81 · 1xBet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
1	1.39 fair best 1.36 · BetVictor	3.59 fair best 3.04 · 1xBet
1.25	1.74 fair best 1.68 · 1xBet	2.36 fair best 2.17 · 1xBet
1.5	48% fair 2.10 best 2.00 · William Hill	52% fair 1.91 best 1.81 · 1xBet
1.75	2.57 fair best 2.31 · 1xBet	1.64 fair best 1.57 · 1xBet
2	3.59 fair best 3.10 · 1xBet	1.39 fair best 1.35 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

0–210.3%fair 9.73
0–310.0%fair 9.97
1–28.3%fair 12.12
1–38.1%fair 12.42
0–47.3%fair 13.62
0–17.2%fair 13.97

Total goals

02%
19%
217%
321%
4+51%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: OFI at home, Bayer Leverkusen away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	OFI	Bayer Leverkusen
Goals scored per game	1.60 (2.33)	2.70 (2.30)
Goals conceded per game	1.30 (0.50)	1.00 (1.70)
Over 2.5 goals	50% (50%)	70% (80%)
Both teams scored	40% (33%)	50% (60%)
Clean sheets	50% (67%)	50% (30%)
Failed to score	10% (0%)	0% (10%)
xG for / against per game	0.94 / 1.39	2.63 / 1.22
Corners for / against per game	3.60 / 6.20	6.60 / 3.30
Cards per game	1.70	1.10

Over 2.5 goals: OFI in 50% and Bayer Leverkusen in 70% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 72% for this match.

From 10 matches for OFI and 10 for Bayer Leverkusen. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

OFI scored 1.6 and conceded 2.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Bayer Leverkusen scored 2.8 and conceded 0.8 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

OFI has lost its last 3 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on OFI here.

Bayer Leverkusen has won its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Bayer Leverkusen here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

OFI

L L L D W

avg 1.6 scored · 2.2 conceded (last 5)

Bayer Leverkusen

W W W W W

avg 2.8 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Thu, 15 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 2 · Away win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.25

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 1c33e580c5703cd9

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit