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UEFA Europa League

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
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The sharp market makes Dinamo Zagreb the most likely outcome at 58% — fair odds of 1.73. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Dinamo Zagreb: WWLWD; NEC Nijmegen: DDDDL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

A gap of +0.6% on 1 was seen on a price that has not been re-read in the last 90 minutes, so we do not flag it: it may no longer be on offer. Price last seen

Betting on Dinamo Zagreb anyway? The best price we see is 1.74 at 1xBet, +0.6% against the fair odds of 1.73. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

1 Home win 57%
1X2
Sharp now58%22%20%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded57%22%21%
Our model64%21%15%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.76
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.71 / 4.17 / 4.34
Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 1.74 / 4.20 / 4.61
Market Gap —
Confidence —
Prediction result Pending

Prices across 35 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 1.734.554.94
Pinnacle sharp 1.68 4.20 4.54
1xBet 1.74 ★ 4.16 4.61 ★
888sport 1.73 3.80 4.20
Betfred (UK) 1.70 4.20 ★ 4.33
Betway 1.67 4.20 ★ 4.20
Coolbet 1.72 4.20 ★ 4.40
Unibet (NL) 1.74 ★ 4.20 ★ 4.60
Unibet (SE) 1.74 ★ 4.20 ★ 4.60
Show all 35 bookmakers
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange 1.69 4.30 4.60
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange 1.69 4.30 4.60
Matchbook exchange 1.68 4.30 4.50
Smarkets exchange 1.68 4.20 4.50
BetOnline.ag 1.68 4.12 4.50
BetVictor 1.65 3.90 4.33
Betano (UK) 1.65 3.90 4.33
Betclic (FR) 1.62 3.85 4.10
Betsson 1.72 4.10 4.45
BoyleSports 1.67 3.80 4.00
Casumo 1.70 4.10 4.50
Codere (IT) 1.73 4.10 4.40
Coral 1.73 4.00 4.33
Grosvenor 1.67 3.90 4.30
Ladbrokes 1.73 4.00 4.33
LeoVegas 1.70 4.00 4.20
LeoVegas (SE) 1.68 3.95 4.30
LiveScore Bet 1.66 3.85 4.20
Marathonbet 1.72 4.10 4.55
Nordic Bet 1.72 4.15 4.55
PMU (FR) 1.62 3.75 4.10
Paddy Power 1.67 4.00 4.33
Unibet (FR) 1.58 3.80 4.10
Virgin Bet 1.66 3.85 4.25
William Hill 1.73 3.80 4.20
Winamax (DE) 1.68 4.10 4.10
Winamax (FR) 1.66 4.00 4.00

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 10 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
2.5 61% fair 1.63 best 1.57 · Bet365 39% fair 2.59 best 2.38 · Bet365
3 2.00 fair best 1.85 · 1xBet 2.00 fair best 1.86 · 1xBet
3.5 39% fair 2.59 best 2.44 · 1xBet 61% fair 1.63 best 1.61 · 1xBet
All lines (7)
Line OverUnder
1.5 84% fair 1.20 best 1.17 · Bet365 16% fair 6.12 best 5.25 · BetVictor
2.5 61% fair 1.63 best 1.57 · Bet365 39% fair 2.59 best 2.38 · Bet365
2.75 1.77 fair best 1.66 · 1xBet 2.29 fair best 2.10 · 1xBet
3 2.00 fair best 1.85 · 1xBet 2.00 fair best 1.86 · 1xBet
3.25 2.29 fair best 2.18 · 1xBet 1.77 fair best 1.75 · 1xBet
3.5 39% fair 2.59 best 2.44 · 1xBet 61% fair 1.63 best 1.61 · 1xBet
4.5 20% fair 5.00 best 4.33 · Bet365 80% fair 1.25 best 1.22 · Bet365

Double chance
1X12X2
80% fair 1.25 best 1.22 · 1xBet 78% fair 1.28 best 1.26 · 1xBet 42% fair 2.37 best 2.16 · 1xBet

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegen
−1.25 2.64 fair best 2.48 · 1xBet 1.61 fair best 1.55 · Bet365
−1 2.28 fair best 2.17 · 1xBet 1.78 fair best 1.70 · Bet365
−0.75 1.94 fair best 1.88 · Bet365 2.07 fair best 1.98 · Bet365
−0.5 58% fair 1.73 best 1.68 · Bet365 42% fair 2.36 best 2.15 · Bet365
−0.25 1.53 fair best 1.50 · Bet365 2.87 fair best 2.50 · Marathonbet
All lines (9)
Line Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegen
−1.75 3.81 fair best 3.66 · 1xBet 1.36 fair best 1.32 · 1xBet
−1.5 33% fair 3.02 best 2.82 · 1xBet 67% fair 1.50 best 1.48 · 1xBet
−1.25 2.64 fair best 2.48 · 1xBet 1.61 fair best 1.55 · Bet365
−1 2.28 fair best 2.17 · 1xBet 1.78 fair best 1.70 · Bet365
−0.75 1.94 fair best 1.88 · Bet365 2.07 fair best 1.98 · Bet365
−0.5 58% fair 1.73 best 1.68 · Bet365 42% fair 2.36 best 2.15 · Bet365
−0.25 1.53 fair best 1.50 · Bet365 2.87 fair best 2.50 · Marathonbet
0 1.33 fair best 1.30 · Bet365 4.00 fair best 3.45 · Bet365
+0.25 1.28 fair best 1.25 · Bet365 4.60 fair best 3.80 · Bet365

Goals by team

Dinamo Zagreb goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 61% fair 1.65 best 1.60 · 1xBet 39% fair 2.53 best 2.30 · 1xBet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
1.5 61% fair 1.65 best 1.60 · 1xBet 39% fair 2.53 best 2.30 · 1xBet
2.5 31% fair 3.20 best 2.81 · 1xBet 69% fair 1.45 best 1.42 · 1xBet

NEC Nijmegen goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 69% fair 1.44 best 1.40 · Bet365 31% fair 3.25 best 2.88 · BetVictor
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 69% fair 1.44 best 1.40 · Bet365 31% fair 3.25 best 2.88 · BetVictor
1.5 30% fair 3.38 best 2.85 · 1xBet 70% fair 1.42 best 1.41 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1X2
44% fair 2.26 best 2.21 · 1xBet 37% fair 2.71 best 2.50 · William Hill 19% fair 5.29 best 4.60 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
1.25 2.04 fair best 1.91 · 1xBet 1.96 fair best 1.87 · 1xBet
1.5 40% fair 2.52 best 2.28 · 1xBet 60% fair 1.66 best 1.62 · 1xBet
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.75 1.39 fair best 1.37 · 1xBet 3.57 fair best 2.95 · 1xBet
1 1.58 fair best 1.53 · 1xBet 2.73 fair best 2.40 · 1xBet
1.25 2.04 fair best 1.91 · 1xBet 1.96 fair best 1.87 · 1xBet
1.5 40% fair 2.52 best 2.28 · 1xBet 60% fair 1.66 best 1.62 · 1xBet
1.75 3.25 fair best 2.80 · 1xBet 1.44 fair best 1.43 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–110.1%fair 9.91
  2. 2–19.9%fair 10.13
  3. 2–08.7%fair 11.48
  4. 1–08.1%fair 12.28
  5. 3–16.7%fair 14.92
  6. 3–05.9%fair 16.91

Total goals

  • 05%
  • 113%
  • 222%
  • 322%
  • 4+39%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Dinamo Zagreb at home, NEC Nijmegen away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesDinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegen
Goals scored per game 1.90 (2.30) 1.10 (1.20)
Goals conceded per game 1.50 (0.70) 2.20 (1.70)
Over 2.5 goals 70% (60%) 70% (60%)
Both teams scored 70% (40%) 70% (50%)
Clean sheets 30% (60%) 0% (20%)
Failed to score 10% (10%) 30% (40%)
xG for / against per game 2.09 / 1.25 1.54 / 1.75
Corners for / against per game 5.10 / 3.20 4.60 / 3.10
Cards per game 1.80 1.60

Over 2.5 goals: Dinamo Zagreb in 70% and NEC Nijmegen in 70% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 61% for this match.

From 10 matches for Dinamo Zagreb and 10 for NEC Nijmegen. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Dinamo Zagreb scored 2 and conceded 1 across their last 5 matches in our results database; NEC Nijmegen scored 1 and conceded 2 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Dinamo Zagreb has won its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Dinamo Zagreb here.
NEC Nijmegen is winless in its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on NEC Nijmegen here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Dinamo Zagreb
W W L W D
avg 2 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)
NEC Nijmegen
D D D D L
avg 1 scored · 2 conceded (last 5)

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1 · Home win
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.71
Closing odds pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint f17c4c3ccfac9923

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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