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UEFA Europa League Thu, 22 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC

Lech Poznan vs Sunderland

Fair price as of 09:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 16:20 UTC
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The sharp market makes Sunderland the most likely outcome at 61% — fair odds of 1.63. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Lech Poznan: WLWWL; Sunderland: LWLLW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

A gap of +2.7% on 2 was seen on a price that has not been re-read in the last 90 minutes, so we do not flag it: it may no longer be on offer. Price last seen 5 hours ago

Betting on Sunderland anyway? The best price we see is 1.67 at Unibet (NL), +2.7% against the fair odds of 1.63. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

2 Away win 60%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	18%	21%	61%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	19%	22%	60%
Our model	55%	23%	21%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 5 hours ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.68

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 4.89 / 4.20 / 1.63

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 5.50 / 4.30 / 1.67

Market Gap —

Confidence —

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 35 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	5.66	4.80	1.63
Pinnacle sharp	5.10	4.37	1.58
1xBet	5.37	4.30	1.63
Betfred (UK)	5.50 ★	4.00	1.62
Betway	4.75	4.33 ★	1.57
Casumo	5.10	4.00	1.64
Nordic Bet	5.50 ★	4.10	1.62
Unibet (NL)	5.25	4.10	1.67 ★
Unibet (SE)	5.25	4.10	1.67 ★

Show all 35 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	5.10	4.20	1.70
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	5.10	4.20	1.70
Matchbook exchange	5.10	4.30	1.70
Smarkets exchange	5.20	4.20	1.69
888sport	4.80	4.00	1.61
BetOnline.ag	4.90	4.25	1.61
BetVictor	5.25	3.80	1.57
Betano (UK)	5.25	3.80	1.57
Betclic (FR)	4.80	3.83	1.54
Betsson	5.45	4.05	1.60
BoyleSports	4.75	3.80	1.60
Codere (IT)	5.20	4.10	1.64
Coolbet	5.25	4.20	1.62
Coral	5.00	4.00	1.65
Grosvenor	4.80	3.85	1.61
Ladbrokes	5.00	4.00	1.61
LeoVegas	4.90	4.00	1.62
LeoVegas (SE)	4.80	3.85	1.62
LiveScore Bet	4.75	3.75	1.60
Marathonbet	5.30	4.25	1.61
PMU (FR)	4.60	3.70	1.56
Paddy Power	5.00	4.00	1.62
Unibet (FR)	4.80	3.80	1.50
Virgin Bet	4.75	3.85	1.60
William Hill	4.80	4.00	1.62
Winamax (DE)	4.80	4.10	1.60
Winamax (FR)	4.70	4.00	1.58

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 11 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	54% fair 1.86 best 1.83 · 1xBet	46% fair 2.16 best 2.06 · 1xBet
2.75	2.11 fair best 2.04 · 1xBet	1.90 fair best 1.85 · 1xBet
3.5	30% fair 3.35 best 3.20 · Bet365	70% fair 1.43 best 1.36 · Bet365

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78% fair 1.28 best 1.28 · Bet365	22% fair 4.53 best 3.90 · BetVictor
2	1.43 fair best 1.38 · BetVictor	3.32 fair best 2.96 · 1xBet
2.25	1.64 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet	2.56 fair best 2.41 · 1xBet
2.5	54% fair 1.86 best 1.83 · 1xBet	46% fair 2.16 best 2.06 · 1xBet
2.75	2.11 fair best 2.04 · 1xBet	1.90 fair best 1.85 · 1xBet
3	2.53 fair best 2.31 · 1xBet	1.65 fair best 1.55 · 1xBet
3.25	2.93 fair best 2.60 · Marathonbet	1.52 fair best 1.44 · BetVictor
3.5	30% fair 3.35 best 3.20 · Bet365	70% fair 1.43 best 1.36 · Bet365
4.5	14% fair 7.18 best 6.00 · BetVictor	86% fair 1.16 best 1.14 · Bet365

Double chance

1X	12	X2
39% fair 2.60 best 2.36 · 1xBet	79% fair 1.26 best 1.24 · 1xBet	82% fair 1.21 best 1.18 · 1xBet

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Lech Poznan	Sunderland
+0.5	39% fair 2.57 best 2.30 · Bet365	61% fair 1.64 best 1.60 · Bet365
+0.75	2.22 fair best 2.07 · 1xBet	1.82 fair best 1.80 · Bet365
+1	1.88 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet	2.14 fair best 2.05 · Bet365
+1.25	1.65 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet	2.54 fair best 2.41 · 1xBet
+1.5	66% fair 1.52 best 1.50 · 1xBet	34% fair 2.94 best 2.75 · 1xBet

All lines (10)

Line	Lech Poznan	Sunderland
−0.25	5.09 fair best 4.26 · 1xBet	1.24 fair best 1.22 · Bet365
0	4.60 fair best 3.90 · BetVictor	1.28 fair best 1.26 · Bet365
+0.25	3.21 fair best 2.77 · 1xBet	1.45 fair best 1.45 · Bet365
+0.5	39% fair 2.57 best 2.30 · Bet365	61% fair 1.64 best 1.60 · Bet365
+0.75	2.22 fair best 2.07 · 1xBet	1.82 fair best 1.80 · Bet365
+1	1.88 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet	2.14 fair best 2.05 · Bet365
+1.25	1.65 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet	2.54 fair best 2.41 · 1xBet
+1.5	66% fair 1.52 best 1.50 · 1xBet	34% fair 2.94 best 2.75 · 1xBet
+1.75	1.37 fair best 1.32 · Bet365	3.73 fair best 3.30 · Bet365
+2	1.22 fair best 1.20 · Bet365	5.45 fair best 4.40 · Bet365

Goals by team

Lech Poznan goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	61% fair 1.63 best 1.57 · Bet365	39% fair 2.59 best 2.32 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	61% fair 1.63 best 1.57 · Bet365	39% fair 2.59 best 2.32 · 1xBet
1.5	22% fair 4.51 best 3.80 · BetVictor	78% fair 1.28 best 1.29 · 1xBet

Sunderland goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	57% fair 1.76 best 1.73 · Bet365	43% fair 2.31 best 2.15 · Marathonbet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	57% fair 1.76 best 1.73 · Bet365	43% fair 2.31 best 2.15 · Marathonbet
2.5	27% fair 3.67 best 3.40 · Bet365	73% fair 1.38 best 1.33 · Marathonbet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
16% fair 6.21 best 5.50 · Bet365	39% fair 2.54 best 2.38 · 1xBet	44% fair 2.25 best 2.20 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73% fair 1.38 best 1.36 · Bet365	27% fair 3.67 best 3.20 · 1xBet
1	1.81 fair best 1.71 · BetVictor	2.24 fair best 2.13 · 1xBet
1.5	34% fair 2.96 best 2.62 · Bet365	66% fair 1.51 best 1.47 · 1xBet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73% fair 1.38 best 1.36 · Bet365	27% fair 3.67 best 3.20 · 1xBet
0.75	1.51 fair best 1.47 · BetVictor	2.96 fair best 2.71 · 1xBet
1	1.81 fair best 1.71 · BetVictor	2.24 fair best 2.13 · 1xBet
1.25	2.38 fair best 2.14 · 1xBet	1.73 fair best 1.66 · 1xBet
1.5	34% fair 2.96 best 2.62 · Bet365	66% fair 1.51 best 1.47 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

0–111.8%fair 8.48
0–210.9%fair 9.17
1–29.9%fair 10.11
1–19.9%fair 10.12
0–37.0%fair 14.35
1–36.3%fair 15.80

Total goals

05%
118%
223%
322%
4+31%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Lech Poznan at home, Sunderland away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Lech Poznan	Sunderland
Goals scored per game	2.40 (2.50)	1.00 (1.60)
Goals conceded per game	1.80 (1.00)	1.50 (1.90)
Over 2.5 goals	90% (70%)	30% (60%)
Both teams scored	70% (30%)	40% (80%)
Clean sheets	10% (50%)	30% (0%)
Failed to score	20% (30%)	30% (20%)
xG for / against per game	1.99 / 1.43	1.70 / 1.75
Corners for / against per game	5.70 / 4.90	5.80 / 4.80
Cards per game	2.10	2.30

Over 2.5 goals: Lech Poznan in 90% and Sunderland in 30% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 54% for this match.

From 10 matches for Lech Poznan and 10 for Sunderland. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Lech Poznan scored 3 and conceded 2.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Sunderland scored 1.2 and conceded 2 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Lech Poznan is averaging 3 goals scored over its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Lech Poznan here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Lech Poznan

W L W W L

avg 3 scored · 2.2 conceded (last 5)

Sunderland

L W L L W

avg 1.2 scored · 2 conceded (last 5)

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Fri, 16 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 2 · Away win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.63

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 9544f2f89637d42b

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit