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UEFA Conference League Thu, 22 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split

Fair price as of 09:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 18:35 UTC
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The sharp market makes HNK Hajduk Split the most likely outcome at 39% — fair odds of 2.55. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — FC Thun: LLWLL; HNK Hajduk Split: WWWLW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

A gap of +1.7% on 2 was seen on a price that has not been re-read in the last 90 minutes, so we do not flag it: it may no longer be on offer. Price last seen 6 hours ago

Betting on HNK Hajduk Split anyway? The best price we see is 2.52 at 1xBet, -1.0% against the fair odds of 2.55. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 73%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	35%	26%	39%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	35%	27%	39%
Our model	23%	22%	54%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 6 hours ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.36

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.75 / 3.51 / 2.46

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 2.77 / 3.55 / 2.59

Market Gap —

Confidence —

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 23 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	2.88	3.85	2.55
Pinnacle sharp	2.75	3.61	2.42
1xBet	2.80 ★	3.54	2.52 ★
888sport	2.70	3.30	2.45
BetOnline.ag	2.77	3.55	2.46
Betfred (UK)	2.62	3.60 ★	2.50
Betway	2.70	3.60 ★	2.40
Coolbet	2.65	3.60 ★	2.45
Unibet (NL)	2.70	3.60 ★	2.45

Show all 23 bookmakers

BetVictor	2.60	3.50	2.38
Betano (UK)	2.60	3.50	2.38
Betclic (FR)	2.58	3.33	2.30
Betsson	2.72	3.45	2.35
LeoVegas	2.65	3.50	2.40
LeoVegas (SE)	2.60	3.45	2.35
LiveScore Bet	2.60	3.45	2.35
Marathonbet	2.70	3.42	2.43
Nordic Bet	2.72	3.45	2.35
Paddy Power	2.60	3.50	2.40
Sky Bet	2.45	3.25	2.30
Unibet (FR)	2.60	3.40	2.20
Unibet (UK)	2.70	3.50	2.45
Virgin Bet	2.60	3.45	2.35
William Hill	2.70	3.30	2.45

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 11 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	60% fair 1.68 best 1.71 · 1xBet	40% fair 2.48 best 2.21 · 1xBet
3	2.09 fair best 2.01 · 1xBet	1.91 fair best 1.69 · BetVictor
3.5	37% fair 2.72 best 2.62 · Bet365	63% fair 1.58 best 1.46 · BetVictor

All lines (8)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	83% fair 1.20 best 1.20 · Bet365	17% fair 6.05 best 4.40 · BetVictor
2.25	1.53 fair best 1.52 · 1xBet	2.87 fair best 2.63 · 1xBet
2.5	60% fair 1.68 best 1.71 · 1xBet	40% fair 2.48 best 2.21 · 1xBet
2.75	1.83 fair best 1.89 · 1xBet	2.20 fair best 1.97 · 1xBet
3	2.09 fair best 2.01 · 1xBet	1.91 fair best 1.69 · BetVictor
3.25	2.40 fair best 2.26 · 1xBet	1.71 fair best 1.55 · BetVictor
3.5	37% fair 2.72 best 2.62 · Bet365	63% fair 1.58 best 1.46 · BetVictor
4.5	19% fair 5.32 best 5.00 · Bet365	81% fair 1.23 best 1.17 · Bet365

Double chance

1X	12	X2
61% fair 1.65 best 1.52 · 1xBet	74% fair 1.35 best 1.33 · Bet365	65% fair 1.53 best 1.50 · Bet365

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	FC Thun	HNK Hajduk Split
−0.5	34% fair 2.97 best 2.60 · Bet365	66% fair 1.51 best 1.48 · Bet365
−0.25	2.55 fair best 2.34 · 1xBet	1.64 fair best 1.64 · 1xBet
0	2.14 fair best 2.02 · Bet365	1.88 fair best 1.88 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.81 fair best 1.68 · Bet365	2.24 fair best 2.15 · Bet365
+0.5	62% fair 1.62 best 1.52 · Bet365	38% fair 2.61 best 2.42 · Bet365

All lines (9)

Line	FC Thun	HNK Hajduk Split
−1	5.40 fair best 4.25 · 1xBet	1.23 fair best 1.22 · Bet365
−0.75	3.72 fair best 3.15 · BetVictor	1.37 fair best 1.35 · Bet365
−0.5	34% fair 2.97 best 2.60 · Bet365	66% fair 1.51 best 1.48 · Bet365
−0.25	2.55 fair best 2.34 · 1xBet	1.64 fair best 1.64 · 1xBet
0	2.14 fair best 2.02 · Bet365	1.88 fair best 1.88 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.81 fair best 1.68 · Bet365	2.24 fair best 2.15 · Bet365
+0.5	62% fair 1.62 best 1.52 · Bet365	38% fair 2.61 best 2.42 · Bet365
+0.75	1.46 fair best 1.38 · Bet365	3.19 fair best 3.00 · Bet365
+1	1.29 fair best 1.24 · Bet365	4.40 fair best 3.90 · 1xBet

Goals by team

FC Thun goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	43% fair 2.32 best 2.15 · BetVictor	57% fair 1.76 best 1.68 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	80% fair 1.25 best 1.25 · 1xBet	20% fair 5.07 best 4.15 · Marathonbet
1.5	43% fair 2.32 best 2.15 · BetVictor	57% fair 1.76 best 1.68 · 1xBet

HNK Hajduk Split goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	47% fair 2.13 best 2.10 · Bet365	53% fair 1.88 best 1.78 · 1xBet

All lines (3)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	81% fair 1.23 best 1.22 · Bet365	19% fair 5.28 best 4.33 · Marathonbet
1.5	47% fair 2.13 best 2.10 · Bet365	53% fair 1.88 best 1.78 · 1xBet
2.5	20% fair 5.11 best 4.50 · Bet365	80% fair 1.24 best 1.19 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
29% fair 3.45 best 3.25 · 1xBet	39% fair 2.56 best 2.30 · William Hill	32% fair 3.14 best 3.05 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	2.09 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet	1.92 fair best 1.73 · BetVictor
1.5	39% fair 2.60 best 2.50 · Bet365	61% fair 1.63 best 1.55 · William Hill

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73% fair 1.36 best 1.30 · William Hill	27% fair 3.77 best 3.40 · Bet365
0.75	1.41 fair best 1.41 · BetVictor	3.42 fair best 2.66 · 1xBet
1	1.62 fair best 1.64 · 1xBet	2.62 fair best 2.15 · BetVictor
1.25	2.09 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet	1.92 fair best 1.73 · BetVictor
1.5	39% fair 2.60 best 2.50 · Bet365	61% fair 1.63 best 1.55 · William Hill
1.75	3.36 fair best 2.90 · 1xBet	1.42 fair best 1.37 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–111.9%fair 8.40
1–28.7%fair 11.54
2–18.1%fair 12.35
2–26.5%fair 15.46
0–16.2%fair 16.10
0–25.8%fair 17.23

Total goals

06%
112%
223%
322%
4+37%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: FC Thun at home, HNK Hajduk Split away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	FC Thun	HNK Hajduk Split
Goals scored per game	1.40 (1.40)	2.00 (1.60)
Goals conceded per game	2.60 (2.40)	0.80 (1.90)
Over 2.5 goals	70% (60%)	70% (80%)
Both teams scored	60% (50%)	40% (60%)
Clean sheets	10% (20%)	50% (10%)
Failed to score	40% (40%)	10% (30%)
xG for / against per game	1.42 / 1.98	1.58 / 0.89
Corners for / against per game	5.10 / 5.10	4.00 / 2.90
Cards per game	2.60	2.10

Over 2.5 goals: FC Thun in 70% and HNK Hajduk Split in 70% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 60% for this match.

From 10 matches for FC Thun and 10 for HNK Hajduk Split. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

FC Thun scored 1.2 and conceded 2.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; HNK Hajduk Split scored 1.2 and conceded 1 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

FC Thun has lost its last 2 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on FC Thun here.

HNK Hajduk Split has won its last 3 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on HNK Hajduk Split here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

FC Thun

L L W L L

avg 1.2 scored · 2.2 conceded (last 5)

HNK Hajduk Split

W W W L W

avg 1.2 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Fri, 16 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.30

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 56dc35426fdc7599

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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